Thursday, January 7, 2016

"I can be as contrary as I want..."
-Lady Violet Crawley, Countess Dowager of Grantham in Downton Abbey
(clean Video highlights of Lady Violet's linguistic moments)

6:00 AM 1/7 - For Downton Abbey watchers, we cannot help but see a bit of Lady Grantham in the recent doings of Mother Nature. Surely you would not jest.

Consider how stoic and uncooperative she has been of late: In two weeks, those of us in the Mid-Atlantic will have seen a temperature transference from the 70s on Christmas Day, with occasional tropical deluges at times, to recent readings in the New Year uncomfortably close to the calendar date (such as near 10 F in parts of Frederick County Tue AM). 

If you seek temperature consistency to avoid the colds and flus that follow such Yo-Yo weather, we agree it is quite the horrid and contrarian pattern in present times. Is there any hope for stability? 

  • Temperatures Thursday into Sunday climb from the 40s for most into the mid 50s and perhaps 60 F along the coast. This mild surge will of course be accompanied by rain, and lots of it, arriving Friday afternoon continuing into Sunday.

  • The roller ride resumes early next week, with an Arctic front crossing Sunday afternoon, dropping temperatures 25 degrees or more to the low 30s by Monday morning. Then overnight lows return to their proper place in the 20s. 

ALAS, DEAR POWDERHOUNDS, we know your heart pumps more than just blood.
If snow is what you seek, the truth of the matter is you will have to remain patient a scant longer for it, unfortunately. 

Soon follow is a report for outlining the types of storm and conditions required to deliver the powder of your pleasure. We call it "the Four C's of Real Snow" for the Mid-Atlantic. 
Do check back today for the next part, it will be an important guide to resolving uncertainty on when the pattern can make good on it's winter promise. 

DIRECT WINTER INTELLIGENCE. If you have trusted our reports and seek efficient, direct notification by text & email for long range and imminent winter hazards, we recommend the Insiders service. 

If you have a moment, preview the details at the Insiders portal. We look forward to welcoming you aboard for the journey ahead.

The Insiders Team of Foot's Forecast 


Snowplease said...

If we get through this period with a historic -Nao and pretty decent -Ao i will be utterly depressed please let the day 10 bomb come true 🙏🏻

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Models are virtually useless for specific storm prediction outside of 5 days. The overriding factors are climatology and teleconnections. Once we are in prime climo the question becomes how do the various players on the field interact. Models in the intermediate range tell you what the field conditions will likely be come game time, but cannot tell you the score of the game with any level of confidence. It is clear that the game is on, what the final score is yet to be determined. I think the home team wins a blowout very soon, but the final score is yet to be revealed!

Snowplease said...

Good to hear Andy we are due for a kahuna. Seems to be three chances hopefully the models become more clear and we get shellacked. It's the anniversary of the 96 blizzard so hopefully some good news comes forth.

ravensbbr said...

Does anyone have a good link to the NAO, or did they just change the website around? Seems like all I see is old data...