Sunday, January 17, 2016

"Where you stand depends on where you sit."
  • CHANGES COMING: First of several fast-moving cold fronts sweep in Sunday then Tuesday, ushering in a sharp temperature drop for the Mid-Atlantic into next Friday.
  • NEXT STORM? Computer models beginning to show a potentially significant coastal event for Friday 1/22 into Saturday 1/23. The map below pertains to a southern coastal on Sunday 1/17 to remain south of the Mid-Atlantic. 

7:00 AM EST 1/17 - Big Changes On The Way This Week:

1) The first of several fast-moving cold fronts sweep through on Sunday then Tuesday, ushering in sharp temperature drop for the entire region through next Thursday.

2) Sunday night may feature passing snow squalls that could douse us with a dusting, especially for areas bordering the Chesapeake Bay and the Eastern Shore.

3) Overnight into Monday, Arctic High pressure takes control. Highs by Monday don't break 25 F, with AM lows in the teens through Wednesday. Toss in winds of 25 mph for a day and a half, it'll feel like a real-life version of a Shakespearean quote about the ilk of a nasty winter's vengeance.

4) The Next Storm? Computer models project rising potential for a coastal winter weather event starting next Friday 1/22.  What we can say thus far is guided by current long range indicators, depending on where you sit - may be a bonus or a bane. Details below:

  • 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION: The Southeastern U.S. is designated as within an area to have at least a 40% chance of above normal precipitation from Fri 1/22 through Tue 1/26.

  • U.S. GFS MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECAST: Friday night 1/22 shows a large area of Low pressure climbing along the southeast coast while a moderate High is positioning in SE Canada. This is an increasing favorable setup for a coastal winter weather event, provided that the existing projections continue to remain aligned to the liking of Powderhounds. Much can change in long range model maps over seven days.

The Dual Hat Issue. Like those in the military can relate, we are often "dual-hatted" in carefully gauging how much information to convey this early in the process. This governs where we stand on a future storm because the nature of our reports are affected by where we sit in the public arena.
  • On this site and in Facebook, our role is to account for the interests of readers eager for snow news, without igniting firestorms over what can be perceived as overly rosy projections. This occurs when preliminary long range estimates are interpreted as "gospel forecasts" and this is why we do not publicly present exact storm predictions at seven- or even five days out.  
  • For clients and subscribers, the other hat we must wear is to account for early notification needs of those responsible for business continuity and advance planning within their organizations. These private subscribers need as much insight as possible about what lurks inside the crystal ball, even if they recognize the details are imprecise this far out. 
If you are among those in need of advance access to the range of possibilities for future winter weather events, we recommend joining the Insiders. For example, we notified all recipients early this morning of the snow potential for today via a graphic by text, well before this public statement was revised. The service delivers to members:
  • Updates by text with internal reports issued twice a week;
  • Real-time notices in active periods;
  • Advance analyses for upcoming winter storm events;

We look forward to welcoming you along for the journey!

The Foot's Forecast Winter Stormcast and Long Range Teams


Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

In true strong El Nino all or nothing form the winter of 2016 is following the delayed but not denied playbook. We are now in prime time which is the period from 1/15 through the end of February, what I call my favorite pattern especially in El Nino years. If you like Ultra Kahunas, 1-2 feet of wind whipped snow, then next weekend might not disappoint. All indications are that a monster is brewing starting Friday night the 22nd through early the 24th. Is this just a model fantasy? I don't think so! Don't change your plans, no need to celebrate or panic, but all reliable guidance is honking the horn in a way not honked since February 2010. We are "overdue" from a historical standpoint and all the ingredients are on the table. Will they come together as being advertised by the models. I like what I see, but outside of 90 hours the details on the models cannot be trusted. I think next weekend the snow drought ends. Will it be epic? TIME WILL TELL!

Morpheus said...

Honk, honk, honk, honk, honk!!!!! Just trying to honk this potential storm along with you Andy. Nice snow shower here in Bowie at the moment. Nice to see some snow!

Hoping for a honking Ultra Kahunas!

Snowplease said...

I'd like to take a moment of silence for these melting flakes may you rest easy lol.

Butch Dynomite said...

Yeah man little wispy flakes always a nice sight

Snowplease said...

With how today's system kind of surprised us who knows what's gonna happen this week hopefully the horn honks loud Andy we are due for a big one.

Andy, Southern York County Pa said...

Wow!!!! I have been following the weather for a very long time. I am speechless!!!! If what the models are currently depicting holds true we may be looking at the number one Ultra Kahuna in modern history next weekend. 3 to 4 feet of wind blown snow??? Simply put a compromise between the global as modeled today would yield that result. Buckle up for a wild ride this week. If the ground truth is even close to what is being depicted we will be entering civil emergency status. Regardless I have never seen model runs this EXTREME within 5 days!!! Stay tuned!

Storm said...

oh man....weed is ready......bring it!!!