Wednesday, August 15, 2007

1 comment:
- Steve Curtis Chapman

Open waters = stronger hurricane

FIRST DISCUSSION - posted Tue 8/14. The trail to blaze in this case is configuring an accurate landfall forecast for this storm, and whether or not those in the Gulf or Southeast should be concerned. While this map looks ominous for the southern and eastern Caribbean, a lot can change over the next 5 days. My expectation is that influence from the Atlantic Ridge continues to nudge Dean's projected track under the islands. Were that to occur within 5 days, then risk as a landfalling strong hurricane in the Yucatan or central/western Gulf rises considerably. Whether or not that becomes a possibility will be more clear by the time we get to late in the weekend. I've been adding new links and revising the tropical section. Be sure to review The Weather Underground's improved tropical links, they've added a variety of features that give you an almost real-time view of approaching systems. As always, if you have encountered a reputable and quality website for tracking the tropics, please consider posting your info in the comments. Here's an example satellite image showing storm data:

Outflow developing in 3 quadrants

If Dean threatens to fulfill the projection shown above, you can expect this to rattle oil markets somewhat. Futures traders are no doubt already nervously watching to see how shipping companies and Gulf Coast refineries are going to deal with the potential disruptions caused by platform evacuations and facility shutdowns, as reported today by

For at least a day or two, we're going to have two storms to follow, as Tropical Storm Erin, though likely to have a shorter lifespan than Dean, will make landfall along the south Texas coast late in the week.

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

- From Rodgers & Hammerstein's 1958 Musical Classic Carousel

(Now that the rain from Barry has ended and the strong June sun has begun to energize your grass and garden.) Now on to other news:
Question: What was the cause behind a $1.25 jump in the price of crude oil yesterday? Answer: Tropical Cyclone Gonu, in the Arabian Sea. As of today was approaching the coast of Oman and believe it or not, may even impact southern Iran as a Category 3. Read about it here. Earlier on Tuesday, 6/5, yhis Middle Eastern beast was tipping the scales at 155 mph. In it's path are thousands of poorly prepared coastal communities, in addition to many many oil platforms and the all-important shipping lanes through the Straits of Hormuz. Nearly 40 percent of the world's petroleum passes through this narrow waterway. And now here comes Gonu.

Gonu 1