Thursday, November 15, 2012

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What We Said, And When

February 6, 2010 - 29 inches - Perry Hall, MD

For historical reference, a chronology of links to previous winter weather forecasts published on this site and in Facebook by the members of Foot's Forecast LLC.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 5-weeks out prediction of Mid-Atlantic snow by December 5, 2009
  • 120-hour advance forecast of 24"+ in Maryland for February 4-5, 2010 
  • "Hours before" life-saving plea urging readers to "get off the roads by 4 PM" on January 26, 2011 just prior to the "snow monsoon." Within hours, 5+ inches of snow had nearly shut down the Baltimore and Washington metro areas.

If you relish the tales of big snow in big cities, this is a trip down performance lane that'll make your back ache all over again just by reading what really happened, and how much you had to shovel.

WHAT WAS SAID WHEN... IN 2011

"Significant banding will occur with this second system, 
with snowfall reaching a rate up to 3, or more, inches per hour
 Timing of this event will put snowfall during the major metro rush hour."
 12:00 PM 1/26/2011 in "Weather whiplash has arrived."

"After an unexpected blast of snow hit the Baltimore area Wednesday AM, 
residents who had to shovel out a few inches brace for round two."
6:45 PM 1/26/2011  WJZ-13 "Wintry Mix Blasts Through Maryland" 

NOAA Final Snowfall Map: January 26-27, 2011 Event

WHAT WE SAID WHEN...IN 2010

"Our forecast team has increasing confidence a prolonged period 
of snowy weather will occur between January 30 to February 10."
6:00 AM 1/24/2010 in "Have we got plans for you."

"The  I-40 Kahuna will produce significant accumulating snowfall 
at least 50 miles farther north than what many were expecting."
11:30 PM 1/29/2010 in "Ready for 6 inches of partly cloudy?"

 "This storm has potential to eclipse December 19, 2009 ; 
February 15-18, 2003 ; January 6-8, 1996 ; March 11, 1993 ;
February 11, 1983 ; December 1966, and could rival March 18-22, 1958."
11:45 PM 2/2/2010 in "This Time I Know It's For Real."

NOAA Final Snowfall Map: February 4-7, 2010 Event

WHAT WE SAID WHEN...IN 2009

"Winter weather arrives throughout the Mid-Atlantic region 
between 11/15 and 12/5 (and) A kickoff event by 12/5."
8:00 AM 11/1/2009 in "Break It Down Again."

"..Projecting the first major snow event (for the Mid-Atlantic) 
to occur between Monday 11/30 and Saturday 12/5."
6:00 AM 11/11/2009 in "Use The Time Given To Us."

"At one point this morning, winter weather-related advisories and warnings 
extended nearly 1,500 miles from southern Louisiana to downeast Maine."
12:00 PM 12/5/2009 in "Another Fabled Fifth"

"FINAL ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT 12-20 
MAY EXCEED 12 inches in metro areas of Washington and Baltimore."
6:00 AM 12/17/2009 in "We Have A Situation."


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Winter Team Portal

A private communication group for those interested in exploring discussions with our Winter Stormcast Team via Facebook. 

You may join the portal by sending a request to this link: 


Important notes about the portal
  1. A private Facebook group page operated by our team, recently created to provide you with more in-depth access to our information.
  2. Joining the portal will not result in you receiving "friend requests" from us
  3. "Chats" will only occur during teleconferences.
  4. "Posts" will be made about twice a week, updating you in information to go public.
  5. The portal is a FREE, two-week trial effective 11/15 to 11/30.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

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"...what to do with 
the time given to us." 
- Gandalf, in The Hobbit (YouTube clip)


6:25 PM EST 11/14/12 (Winter Stormcast Team) With U.S. snowcover already at 30% and the majority of Canada well-coveredPowderhounds know the time is drawing near to start waxing the board and checking the bindings. For those in the transportation, utility and emergency management communities whom have followed us the past, you know when we start ramping up the language, we're not just whistlin' Dixie. 

As Gandalf said, "All we have to do is decide what to do with the time given to us."



"HOW ABOUT THE QUICK FYI?"  If you insist, here's the reason for the hub-bub:
  • Strange as it may seemwe are not predicting a long, brutally cold winter with high levels of snowfall for these same areas. Why? An expected El Nino collapsed back to  near neutral, so the traditional influx of warm Pacific moisture that accompanies Nino patterns (as was observed in recent years such as 1997-98, 2002-03 and 2009-10) is less likely this winter. But we expect this to be another "hybrid winter."
  • So what's the deal? Instead of a knock-down, drag out winter, envision your operational management plans if your facility or location were to receive 80% of your winter weather within a 3-week period-- leading up to the holidays. 
  • And the rationale for that? The run-up of snowcover may permit large and cold high pressure systems in central Canada to build up. When they eventually move southeast toward the U.S. the calendar will have moved to December. This factor combined with above normal sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic, and a generally more-slow moving storm pattern, means any coastal storms -- in similar fashion to Hurricane Sandy, may be able to throw back a lot of moisture of over large areas. 


BE BETTER PREPARED. 
Interested in a FREE preview of access to our team's internal analyses? We invite you to attend a special 30-min "Q & A" Long Range teleconference call with the Winter Stormcast Team on THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15 at either 10:00 AM or 2:00 PM EST.



NO-HASSLE REGISTRATION. 
If you are already a member of our Winter Risk Email List, then you'll receive an invite today. If you'd like to join the no-spam, secure, no-obligation list for the Q & conference call, send us a short note to winter@footsforecast.org.

Monday, November 12, 2012

1 comment:
Don't face a tough winter alone.
CONSIDER OUR LOCAL DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES 


AND LET'S WORK THE NEXT STORM, TOGETHER.
(Photo credit: The Epoch Times, taken in Point Pleasant, NJ)

A high-impact pattern is taking shape heading into winter. Don't you deserve better support than relying on a 99-cent Smartphone app, staring at a radar loop, or basing tough decisions on a 30-second Weather Channel graphic? 

We have what you need. Immediate answers from a dedicated, local forecast team that works directly with you, every step of the way. That's what Winter Consulting Services with Foot's Forecast can do for you. 


FEMA-trained Forecaster Aaron Salter of the Maryland Team
working with Baltimore Gas & Electric representative
in a county operations center during Hurricane Sandy
Local support, when you need it most.
GET A FREE PREVIEW of the updated Winter Risk Assessment
REQUEST A FREE QUOTE for local Winter Weather Consulting
LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR Client Engagement Procedure
winter@footsforecast.org


What We Do. Foot's Forecast LLC is a private company which can deliver high-value, cost-effective local decision support in any of the lower 48 states.
  • Real-time interpretative services for facility operators
  • Dedicated on-site support for emergency management specialists
  • High-impact decision graphics and briefing reports for coordinators
  • Long-range seasonal & climate analyses for risk managers
  • Event promotion & outreach for outdoor event directors

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Our performance in their words
TESTIMONIALS FROM PARTNERS & CLIENTS


"You guys have always been spot-on, you've never the City down."    - Ocean City MD Department of Emergency Services.  2011-12 Dew Tour 
Forecaster Paul Bauer with Ocean City Emergency Services at the 2012 Dew Tour 
From Baltimore City, MD to Atlantic coastal communities such as Ocean City, MD., the advance information we deliver has helped our partners take cost-effective, safety-focused actions, reducing impact of weather on facilities, staff, customers and the public.

"I don't worry about the weather anymore, the Foots team does the worrying for me."  - Bel Air Downtown Alliance 

Whether large-scale event promotion such as the Baltimore Office of Promotion & The Arts, the Pantech USA Dew Tour, or dedicated on-site consult to the Baltimore City mayor during Hurricane Sandy, our team has served public safety agencies, school systems and private organizations alike with detailed climate and weather intelligence.  

CEO Rich Foot briefing the staff of Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake
in the city's Emergency Operations Center during Hurricane Sandy.
Review our Fusion Forecasting or Winter Services
and we're ready to work your event with you.

Recent Testimonials
Robert Maloney, Deputy Chief of Emergency Management and Public Safety for Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake:
“The Foot's Forecast Team has been instrumental in helping Baltimore City officials stay well-informed of weather hazards. The level of detailed weather intelligence provided has been necessary given the significant events which have affected our City of late.”  
Joe Theobald, Director of Emergency ServicesTown of Ocean CityMD; following the August 2012 Dew Tour:
"The Foot's Forecast Team does commendable work assisting our city in difficult weather events and helps promote our many public events. Our department is grateful for the team's dedication and commitment to us." 

Scott Walker, Executive Director of the Bel Air Downtown Alliance, Harford County, MD; summarizing our services provided in 2012:    
"I don't worry about the weather anymore, the Foots team does the worrying for me."

Peter Beaudry, Director of Public Works, City of Kennewick, Washington; in a testimonial letter from February 1, 2012: 
"As part of Foot's Forecast team, (Forecaster) Mark Ingalls has been instrumental in providing the City of Kennewick with accurate weekly weather projections. When a storm is projected, he provides us with more frequent updates and suggestions on preparation and response. This winter the results have been obvious to our citizens, with our major roadways being in the best shape during snow and ice events."

TAKE THE RIGHT STEP FOR YOUR WEATHER NEEDS

WE'RE READY TO COLLABORATE WITH YOU
If you're interested in more information about how we can provide dedicated weather intelligence services to your facility, staff or organization, contact us today: collaborate@footsforecast.org OR call our dedicated client service line: 443 | 929.0721

Sunday, November 11, 2012

1 comment:
Tricky Times For Turkey Day?

12:00 PM EST 11/11 (From The Long Range Team) While current forecast model indications show much of the U.S. in a milder, Pacific-dominated trend for the next 5-10 days, there are big concerns on the long range horizon. By Tuesday 11/20, a much  stormier pattern is expected to develop across the Eastern U.S. 


The leading event into this 3-4 week pattern may be this hypothesized multi-day coast rainstorm as shown above from the US Global Forecast System. Were this storm to occur as modeled, it would produce several days of lashing rain and coastal wind in the same Northeast & Mid-Atlantic locations impacted by Sandy and the Election Week winter storm. Not what you wanted to read for such a gorgeous Veteran's Day no doubt.

WILL IT PRODUCE SNOW? 
That's much too early to tell with any certainty. However it is notable that models have accurately projected 2 major coastal storms several weeks in advance, and both exceeded the worse case scenario for many. 

STAY IN THE KNOW, BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS.
  • For those in transportation, aviation, facility management or emergency operations, you need actionable, on-site or on-line weather intelligence. We invite you to consider our high-value, cost-effective Decision Services. 
  • Our plans range from short-term Urgent Service to the customized Monthly Advantage plans or our long range SeasonShield plan.

GET 25% OFF REGULAR WINTER PRICING 
We're offering a 25% off our regular winter pricing in a special 2-week Pre Winter Promotion, and we're ready to work the next storm with you: winter@footsforecast.org
2 comments:
A snowy Veterans Day, and 
a sentence that changed my life 
by Rich Foot, CEO & Lead Advisor: Foot's Forecast LLC


Veterans Day 1987 Storm pelting
Arlington Cemetery events
from Weatherbook.com


7:00 AM EST 11/11/2012 (Baltimore, MD) Today, we honor the dedication of our military soldiers across the world, and the ultimate sacrifice of those who have given all in the name of protecting freedom. The history of this day, firmly rooted in the original "Armistice Day" marking the end of The Great War in Europe, later became redesignated as one to honor all current and former soldiers of our nation's military forces. 

Twenty-five years ago, though the homeland was in a much more innocent time, the weather had been no less unique and challenging as present day. The 1985 hurricane season had produced a record number of named storms and 1986-87 was a notably snowy period in the Eastern U.S. On Veteran's Day in 1987, temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic were notably cool for mid-November, having just come off a warm October. As a high school senior at the time, I was immersed in the excitement of college acceptance letters and cross country with the Conestoga High School Pioneers in Chester County, PA. Little did I realized the weather was about to change my career path, forever. 

Thursday, November 8, 2012

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How To Engage With Our Team
5 STEPS OF OUR CLIENT SERVICE PROCESS

Questions? Contact Chief Operating Officer Keith Krichinsky
keith.krich@footsforecast.org    443 | 929.0721 


1. MEET & GREET (PHONE or IN PERSON) 
  • FIRST, we schedule a brief, no-obligation teleconference to learn your weather-relevant operational priorities. Prior to the call, we issue a Decision Services overview, to help you identify which programs will best address your needs.
  • Free on-site or online consult/webinar is also available upon request. 

2. SERVICE QUOTE & FREE TRIAL
  • NEXT, following input from on-call or on-site discussions, we issue a service plan quote within 24 hours (if for Advantage or Seasonal) including a proposed Letter of Engagement for expedient needs. 
  • FREE Trial of services are available for up to a 48 hour period (such as for a weekend outdoor concert, or during a high-impact period)
  • For Urgent Service, a Letter of Engagement & Credit Card Authorization Form is sent during the teleconference.

3. LETTER OF AGREEMENT 
  • THEN, after your review, modification or acceptance of the plan quote, the Letter of Agreement is signed electronically and returned with a Credit Card Authorization Form. 
  • A Scope of Work follows within 24 hours, and services commence once the SOW is received by you. 
4. BILLING / RETAINER
  • All plans include a reasonable retainer to account for initial services. 
  • Following the retainer, a client is billed on a NET 30 from our Finance Team.
  • Payments can be made by credit card, PayPal, or through our online store
5. ADJUSTMENT OF CONTRACT?
  • If with 7 business days of signing, a review of the contract/SOW by the client and the team finds an area of concern warranting modification, Foot's Forecast agrees the client is entitled to a no-fee collaborative adjustment of terms and a FREE two-week extension of services at no additional charge.

We're ready to work the event with you.
Anywhere you need us.




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Foot's Forecast:
How We Do Weather Differently

Forecaster Jason worked closely with public safety officials from
Ocean City, Maryland during the Pantech Dew Tour in 2011 and 2012 


  • AccuWeather, Inc. is in State College, PA and states their headquarters is the largest concentration of forecast meteorologists in one place. We have over 75  local forecasters and meteorologists spread across the United States. Any hour of the day, we'll come to your office, work in your operations center, or send you a briefing document. We provide a level of on-site and online human interaction you cannot buy from Accuweather. Our difference? We can rapidly respond to your local needs.

    • The Weather Channel LLC is in Atlanta, GA. While hundreds of miles away from actual winter weather, TWC pulls automated content from the NOAA Global Forecast System to produce your "local on the 8's." We personally live through the storms we forecast to you, not report on-site to boost ratings when the weather is interesting. Our difference? We live the local weather with you, every day in your location.

      • The National Weather Service has 122 forecast offices across the nation. Their mission is to "provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the local economy." To do this for large populations such as the 9 million across the Baltimore/Washington area requires significant annual federal funding. But to efficiently understand the vast NOAA/NWS information suite, our clients rely on our interpretations of it and explanations of changing weather patterns.  Our difference? We collaborate across state lines to quickly connect you with consistent, actionable information.

      If locally-relevant weather decision support is a priority for your organization, and you'd like to talk to a forecaster now, contact us: collaborate@footsforecast.org or call 443.929.0721

      Local Decision Services From A Trusted Team


      Wednesday, November 7, 2012

      1 comment:
      White In The Pre-Winter Night

      FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON 
      FOR NORTHERN I-95 CORRIDOR 

      Inland blue:Winter Weather Advisories
      Inland pink: Winter Storm Warnings
      Dark blue: Storm Wind Warning: (winds 55 mph+ )
      Light Red: Hurricane Wind Force Warning (winds 74 mph +)

      AS OF 8:43 AM EST 11/7/2012

      INLAND IMPACTS - ACCUMULATING SNOW:
      • 1-3" Northern and northeastern Maryland 
      • 3-5" Eastern Pennsylvania including metro Philadelphia, Southeast New York
      • 4-6" Northern Delaware, western & central New Jersey 
      • 6" or more for the I-87 corridor and southern New England 
      COASTAL IMPACTS - HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN: 
      • Sustained north and northeast winds of 35+ mph along the Delmarva coast, in across New Jersey and southeast New York State. 
      • Those areas also will receive wind gusts up to 60 mph.
      • Rainfall of 2-3 inches in recently affected areas from Hurricane Sandy
      • The extreme eastern shore of MD and DE could also see brief periods of rain/snow mixed in the early morning hours on Thursday. 
      LOCAL UPDATES FROM OUR FORECAST ZONES

      Foot's Forecast: The Bayshore (Eastern MD counties) 

      Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast Team:
      Connor, Jason M., Greg J., Zach F., Jason I., Mike N., Advisors Foot and Alex D. 


      Tuesday, November 6, 2012

      No comments:
      Snow, Or No?
      ASSESSING MID-ATLANTIC SNOW RISK 
      IN THE NEXT COASTAL EVENT


      4:05 PM EST 11/6 - Election Day Greetings To All! Yesterday, we were becoming concerned about the possibility of accumulating snowfall occurring more east of mountains than was originally expected. That possibility is still present, but we don't expect it to become a surprise high impact snow event as some computer models were originally hinting toward from yesterday. 


      SO WHO GETS THE SNOW?  We are not ruling out snow completely, but if any snow were to develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, it would be confined to:
      • Coating to 2" for northeast Maryland into eastern Pennsylvania
      • Northeast New Jersey
      • The extreme eastern shore of MD and DE could also see brief periods of rain/snow mixed in the early morning hours on Thursday. 
      • Northeast NY and extreme SE New York, including NYC could see some accumulating snow if the storm track shifts more west. 
      ZONES AFFECTED
      Foot's Forecast: The Bayshore (Eastern MD counties) 

      WHY THE CHANGE? Projections from several latest computer model runs as well as large scale atmospheric observations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation* (NAO) point to the upcoming storm, while still expected to be a very potent coastal event, is likely to remain further offshore. This will unfortunately produce strong north and northeast winds of 35+ mph along the Delmarva coast, in across New Jersey and southeast New York State. Those areas have a High Wind Watch in effect for gusts up to 60+ mph.

      However west of the Chesapeake Bay, heavy precipitation is not likely to have a major impact at this time, although winds will still be strong and gusty at times Wednesday night into Thursday along and east of I-95 and along Delmarva. We will continue narrowing the possibilities for you today on this page and in our main site storm section (http://www.footsforecast.org/p/storm

      (Forecasters Connor, Jason M., Greg J., Zach F., Jason I., Mike N., Advisors Foot and Alex D. ) 


      Saturday, November 3, 2012

      **Current Storm Projection For The Week Ahead**

      56 comments:
      Major Coastal Storm 
      To Affect Sandy Impact Areas

      WINDS UP TO 55 MPH & 8 FOOT SURGE
      POSSIBLE ALONG NJ & NY COASTLINE 
      CONCERN FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN I-95

      MID-ATLANTIC TEAM STATEMENT: 
      HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A MAJOR COASTAL EVENT 
      FROM SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND. 

      5:00 PM EST 11/5 As has been projected for several days now, there is high confidence of a major coastal storm to develop along the Southeast coast by Wednesday, move north toward New England, and bring high winds, heavy rain and significant waves to the coast and immediate inland areas of Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

      SNOW FACTORS UP. Additionally, there is now an increasing concern for potential accumulating snow in some of the major cities along the I-95 corridor and further inland. These possibilities will be outlined in further detail tonight and on our Mid-Atlantic Winter Stormcast page. We have narrowed the possibilities down to "Scenario A" as summarized below, and shown in this map projection and loop from the NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 




      TIMELINE & GRAPHICS The storm would be the strongest at 984 mb by Thursday afternoon off the New Jersey coastline. The storm will be closest to land near Long Island, New York on early Friday morning. With this scenario LITTLE to NO snow accumulations would occur in the major metropolitan areas of the I-95 corridor from Richmond to New York.
      Our "4-panel graphic" by Meteorologist Alex Davies, Surf & Sail Team. 
      Possible effects to Sandy impact areas
      • Rainfall: 2-3" from the coast inland to the I-95 corridor   
       Coastal wind: Sustained 35-45 mph, gusts up to 55 mph 
      • Inland wind: (interior NJ/Delmarva to I-95)
      Sustained 20-30 mph, gusts 40 mph  
      • Snowfall: Starting early Thursday morning for inland areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast including central Appalachians of Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York and the White/Green Mountains of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. All snowfall would come to an end by Friday Evening. 
      • High temps: Coastal highs ~50 F, Inland highs upper 40s 
      • Low temps: Coastal lows in low 40s, inland lows mid 30s 

      NEED DIRECT SUPPORT? If your company, agency or organization would to assure you are receiving the best available information about this storm threat, we invite you to contact us about our Storm Services & Direct Support program. We're here to work the storm with you: storm@footsforecast.org or call us 443-929-0721 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting            443-929-0721      end_of_the_skype_highlighting       


      STORM SCENARIOS: In the link below, our previous analyses and scenarios posted over the weekend.


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      Hurricane Sandy:
      How You Can Help
      Outreach & Resources From Our Storm Response Team

      Image credit: Red Cross Disaster Newsroom

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