Thursday, March 20, 2014

SKYFALL?

27 comments:
SKYFALL?

12:10 PM EDT 3/21 UPDATE
POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM COULD AFFECT
 MID-ATLANTIC & NE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
Extrapolation from European, NOAA Extended Forecast Discussion & 6-10 Day Analogs

In the latest James Bond action thriller, when 007 and M return to the Scotland estate of his boyhood home, he knows well his surroundings (and the weather) as when he was a child. Long trained in special operations, the agent's cunning awareness can detect the finest hint of changes to come, and not just in the local climate. 

In the video clip, 007 portends to M with brutal simplicity a fate neither they, nor us, can avoid... if long range projections about next week continue unfolding in a manner most certainly not Spring-like

If you are prepared for the next briefing, which may end as unexpected and shocking as the final scene in Skyfall, read to the next section.


MULTIPLE COMPUTER PROJECTIONS POINT TO A SCENARIO RESEMBLING MID-MARCH 1993 DEVELOPING ALONG MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK

BRIEFING AS OF 1700 UTC 21 MAR 14 (1200 PM EDT)

WHAT WE KNOW TODAY
  • As we approach the 5-day mark before "storm operations" would commence, we can reveal that both the European and GFS have been pointing to an extremely intense cyclone "bombing" off the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast coast by Tuesday night. Were this outcome to occur, it could reach a central pressure more characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane, at 970 mb as it departs northeast.
  • Liquid projections range from a relatively tame 0.50 - 0.75 to as much as 2.00" in some of the European model member. Of the 51 total members of the European suite, at least 21 members can be aggregated to suggest a mean of 6"+ for Washington DC by Wednesday morning. That said, another 30 members show lesser impact, so the scenarios at play can be summarized as "all or nothing."
  • While the origins of this storm are thousands of miles apart,  the upper level flow is in a "Cross-Polar" Pattern, which will drive large masses of cold air directly southeast into the northern and eastern U.S., overridden by a Spring-like pattern of frontal moisture streaming northeast from the Gulf of Mexico. 
WHAT WE KNEW YESTERDAY...007 style


  • Deep and extensive snow cover across Canada is allowing Arctic Highs to maintain extreme cold in traveling south from Polar regions. Several large and powerful Highs will infiltrate the U.S. in multiple locations, and unleash a multi-day attack of cold not unlike January conditions for the period 24 through 28 March.
  • European and US computer operatives, whose exact identities remain classified for security reasons, have for several days now been depicting a variety of coastal outcomes that produce snow and wind along much of the East coast. This in combination with above-normal precipitation for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day projections, suggests that additional oversight is will be needed for even the most trained agents.
  • Latest weather intelligence sources, using remote analysis technology provided by F, indicate that several systems of interest are expected to travel in a southeast direction from northern Canada, starting Sunday. Canadian authorities have been tracking these systems since early in the week. By Monday, the suspects may be moving through the Upper Midwest. If sufficient decryption of non-state actor dossiers can occur in time, it is believed by the Department there will be a second infiltration coming from the southern U.S. starting on Tuesday.
  • Due to concern for maintaining public calm (and securing agent identity), it is recommended that further mention of large scale geographical extent of the potential outcomes for Wednesday be restricted only to the highest security officials, pending confirmation of TS/SCI clearances by the appropriate authority. 
DISCLOSURE NOTICE: Should this information be disclosed to unfavorable parties, the Secretary will disavow all knowledge. The next briefing on this situation is expected by 09 UTC 21 MAR 14.

FF10
Weather Security Department

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

So I'll say a little prayer

39 comments:
"So I'll say a little prayer, and hope 
my dreams will take me there..."
-lyrics from My Love, by WestLife (VEVO Music Video)


Image credit: VEVO Video & Westlife Productions

4:00 PM EDT 3/19 - We know it has a very rough winter for many, and like these words from Westlife's song "My Love" seeing blue skies and nice conditions again (for more than one weekend) is a common desire for all of us. 

At least Thursday into Saturday will be the respite you need, and tomorrow, we celebrate together having completed the journey out of winter. The real question going forward: What is next for the winter that seems to know NO endOur Long Range team has been examining the situation going forward for the next two weeks, and several indications are clear, as shown in the Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook:


  • PERSISTENT WAVES OF COLD AIR will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the Eastern U.S. What's responsible for this? Deep snowcover in Canada, keeping in place that new villan we love to hate: The Polar Vortex. Meteorologists such as WeatherBell.com's Joe Bastardi have indicated this next Arctic outbreak may be the coldest start to Spring the Eastern U.S. has seen in over 50 years.
  • NOT CONCERNED YET? What if we told you that the "analog" charts from the Climate Prediction Center for next week show a date that would make ANY school official stop in their tracks and say, "What did you say?" March 13, 1993 is being listed as the #2 most similar scenario match from a large scale perspective for the period March 24-29. 

SNIPPETS FROM NOAA (for Powderhound eyes only)
Weather Prediction Center, as of 3/19 for the period Saturday through next Wednesday:
"AT THE VERY LEAST, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF SOME WINTRY PCPN FOR LATE MARCH...GIVEN COLD SECTOR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-25 F BELOW NORMAL.  AT THE VERY MOST THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SRN/NRN STREAM INTERACTION TO FORM A LATE SEASON MIDWEST TO ERN US WINTER STORM DAYS TUE/WED." (Image below: Day 5 Surface Projection from the WPC. Note positioning of the Highs & Lows)

Climate Prediction Center, US Hazards, as of 3/19:
"MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TWO STRONG SURFACE HIGHS (1040-HPA) ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA DURING THE NEXT WEEK. MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSTED FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. SUB-ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, OZARKS, AND OHIO VALLEY. THE MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."

WHAT'S THIS MEAN? A cold and stormy pattern will keep the East locked in an unpleasantly delayed arrival of Spring, until the Canadian snowcover can begin to decrease. Another way of saying it is that now you know the meaning behind us "saying a little prayer, hoping dreams will take us there, where the skies are blue, to see you once again."


Sunday, March 16, 2014

From Blue & Green... to Gray & White

45 comments:
From Blue & Green... to Gray & White


LATE WINTER STORM FOR MID-ATLANTIC & CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION
3-6" EXPECTED FOR DC & BALTIMORE METROS, UP TO 8" ALONG I-81 CORRIDOR

7:10 PM 3/16 – TEAM UPDATE & SNOWFALL MAP
(Wishing for a less white and a more green this St. Patrick’s Day?)





With another late-season snowstorm arriving in this region, here are the latest thoughts from our Winter Stormcast team. 



TIMING

  • We expect precipitation to begin around 5-8 PM from SW to NE. We may not be all snow to start as the cold air hasn’t arrived quite yet. 
  • Most of the Mid-Atlantic should fall below freezing by around 9-11 PM with all snow falling at that time. 
  • The heaviest snow is expected from 11PM-5AM, prior to sunrise. Snow rates will slow down towards sunrise and the morning hours, but another quick burst is possible during the late morning. 

IMPACTS: Some accumulation may be lost initially due to warm ground temps, but once the heavier snow moves in and the temperatures get into the 20s, snow should stick fairly easily. It will still take longer to stick to roadways. Accumulations on the roadways will be slightly less than what is shown on the map. Road conditions should begin to improve when the strong March sun arrives Monday morning. 



HOW COULD THE FORECAST GO WRONG?

1. Overperform Scenario (25%) – We are watching the potential for heavy snow bands to set up over the region. This will be oriented west to east, and moving WSW-ENE which means that there could be areas that get higher totals if they get stuck under the band for a long period of time. We will be watching to see where this sets up. 

2. Bust Scenario (10%) – If warm ground temps prevail and snow rates aren’t very exceptional, snow could simply fall and melt for the initial parts of the storm. The heavier snowfall rates that come in later could just not be enough to get to the expected totals. 

LANDSCAPING ONCE SPRING COMES? To get you through these tiresome late winter days, we invite you to check out the cool projects from our partner at Four Seasons Landscaping & Nursery in Damascus, MD. They have a full range of services including patios, pools and top class landscaping for your unique property needs. http://www.fourseasonslandscaping.net/

Stay with us and have a wonderful day (as best as you can considering the weather!) Let us know how you are coping... special dinner, trip away, Netflix festival?

(Forecaster Mike N., Advisor Foot and the WSC Team)



Friday, March 14, 2014

Does Lucky Green = White?

63 comments:
Does Lucky Green = White?

Latest analysis from NOAA on this developing situation:

4:35 PM 3/15 - SNOW? RIIIIGHT. You could just hear Bill Cosby making a full standup routine on this one. But like an R & B song of recent years, "Girl you know it's true." The trend this winter has been brief warmups, followed by drastic cool downs and then, a storm. 


WHAT'S THE TIMING? 
  • That High pressure system sliding to Eastern Canada today will begin funneling cold air southward tonight, and by Sunday afternoon we will see rain and snow mixed overspreading much of the Mid-Atlantic. 
  • Given the warm temperatures, it's obvious that the first few hours of snow will obviously have trouble sticking, or just melt on contact. 
  • By the overnight hours, snow will become heavy across much of Maryland and Virginia, and unless things change drastically, the clovers will be snow-covered Monday morning. 

Sunday, March 9, 2014

So sink or swim...I'm diving in

33 comments:
"So sink or swim...I'm diving in."
- Lyrics from Dive by Stephen Curtis Chapman

3:45 AM EDT 3/12 - If you're ready to take the leap of faith and full throttle it into March, better get ready to Dive in. Today, we're all going to be caught in the rush of the mighty atmospheric rivers above. The chart below shows forecasted temperatures for Thursday. Yes, the red is NOT a warm number this time.


The northern and southern jet streams are gaming to phase later in the week, merging copious Gulf moisture with significant upper level energy to the north. The result will be as one of our meteorologist-advisors put it, a "roller coaster into March" with temperatures wildly swinging 50 degrees in less than 12 hours TONIGHT. The northern Mid-Atlantic from northwest Pennsylvania to New York and New England are likely to be POWDERHOUND CENTRAL for up to 2 feet of heavy wet snow is possible in those regions. 

For regions to the south of this expected snowblast, Chapman's opening lines will best suit your weather later this week, for "the long awaited rains (will fall) hard upon the thirsty ground" and may even bring a touch of "white in the winter night" before the final stanza is sung. 

WESTERN NEW YORK THE BULLSEYE ? At least earlier fears of a March 1958 back breaker are not coming to fruition for the Mid-Atlantic, but this will be small comfort for New Yorkers more accustomed to dry than wet snow. If you're in the region expecting snow impact, we invite you to check in with Forecaster Ronelle of our Western New York State zone for local reports as the storm approaches by midweek! 

(Forecaster Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team)


Friday, March 7, 2014

If you're willing to play the game...

9 comments:
"If you're willing to play the game...
...it will be coming around again."
- Carly Simon, in the 1986 soundtrack from Heartburn (Youtube music video)
starring Jack Nicholson and Meryl Streep

2:00 PM 3/7 - On this First "Fusion" Friday across our team, we know many readers are clamoring for a micron of good news about when they can fully engage in Spring-a-ling mode. You want to get out, clean up the yard, wash the car, and just simply not. have. to. deal. with. winter. for. a. long. time.

Still, Powderhounds know March can be a vicious beast at times, with unrelenting cold due to an excessively deep snow cover throughout our neighbor to the north. We know you might say, "But, Canada is always cold and snow-covered, so that's not news."  

It could be said that both this winter and last winter might be anomalies in that regard. In 2013 at this time, temperatures in the Hudson Bay region were near 32 F, starkly above normal for that area. Last week, those same areas had upper level temperatures at 5000 feet around -50 C. Yes, MINUS 50. That cold is not going anywhere for a while.

Where IS this pattern going?
  • Long Range Ensemble models have for several days now, been showing a significant upper level system developing in the East the middle of next week. This system would be more widespread and have higher precipitation amounts than the Sunday-Monday event of March 2-3. 
  • While it's uncertain if this storm would be a snow-maker for the metro & coastal areas, it is increasingly likely that from the I-83 to I-81 corridors may see a long duration period of heavy snow and heavy rain, with a wintry mix at times. 
  • Beyond this storm, there is no help in the temperature department. Another round of cold air is expected to rush in after this storm departs by Friday, per the temp probability chart from NOAA for the period March 12-16. 
To commiserate with our winter-worn readers, Carly Simon's timeless lyrics sum up how we know it might feel upon learning of this next fate, where she says, "So don't mind if I fall apart, there's more room in a broken heart." 

At least this weekend, the "itsy bitsy spider" will have a chance to climb up the waterspout and take in some sunshine. But alas, that won't last long, because we know nothing stays the same, and if you're WILLING to play the game, be prepared that it's... coming... around.. again. 

(Forecasters Foot, Nic R. and the Long Range Team)

Monday, March 3, 2014

"What we have here is a FAILURE to COMMUNICATE."

88 comments:
"What we have here is a FAILURE to COMMUNICATE."
- From the 1967 film Cool Hand Luke starring Paul Newman

11:00 AM 3/4 (Long Range Team) Operational Note: We've been notified of many school closings that were initially two-hour delays. Apparently the cold is so intense that our request for a cancellation of future cold on behalf of the districts FROZE while being typed on an iPhone outdoors. 

The ensuing Phone shutdown caused a delay in being able to reassure schools that temperatures would be warming up again. We are mediating a contract settlement between Old Man Winter and Mother Nature to at least provide for an on-time arrival of appropriate Spring weather on or about March 20.  However, one of the "poison pill" provisions that was in the earlier buyout plan for March included several late-season events.  We are working out the relevant details (that our legal team is allowing us to share with the public) and will post said information this afternoon. 


10:45 AM 3/3 (Long Range Team) As the Arctic Attack from Canada and the Upper Midwest moves east, has brought with it the coldest daytime snowfall some have seen in 10+ years. For areas of the Mid-Atlantic still under Winter Storm Warnings, not since February 17, 2003 have temperatures been THIS COLD, this late in the season, while snow is falling!

It also begs the question that we know many have lingering in their mind (or screaming at the forefront)... ARE WE DONE or is there MORE?? A look at long range indications heading into March show the answer is, sadly, no. Factors including Central Pacific warming that is signaling the eventual return of El Nino this Spring and Summer. This in turn could be related to model projections for an increasingly active Equatorial Pacific to Gulf of Mexico as a source of enhanced moisture input for future storms. If you combine this with the Climate Prediction Center's call for a rising probability of below normal temps now to MARCH 16 for the Eastern U.S., that means a phrase few of us want to hear OR see: More Winter-like Storms.

It would seem whomever is processing Mother Nature's emails and twitter account is suffering from a case of communication breakdown: We CLEARLY requested in writing a cease and desist order for this weather. What are your thoughts on the pattern ahead?

(Forecasters Foot, Long Range Coordinator Nic R. and the LR Team)

Saturday, March 1, 2014

(Who's) Got The Eye of the Tiger?"

239 comments:
(Who's) Got The Eye of the Tiger?"
- Katy Perry in the 2013 single Roar

LATEST NWS REGIONAL WARNING MAP | DAY 1-3 LIQUID PROJECTIONS 
  • AREAS OF HEAVIEST SNOW MAY BE ALONG I-81 TO I-64 CORRIDOR TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND DC METRO OVER TO MIDDLE EASTERN SHORE
  • HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED 5-10 AM WITH RATES OF 2"/HOUR POSSIBLE. A LULL AROUND NOON WITH A SECOND BURST 1-3 PM.
  • NEAR-ZERO TEMPS TUE MORNING FOR THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST

11:00 PM 3/2 (UPDATE FROM WSC TEAM) Warnings to the south and Advisories to the north? That's not normal! (By Forecaster Mike & Advisor Foot)




  • This may be that rare storm where Annapolis ends up with more snow than York, PA. We have many important details included in this post so be sure to read ahead! The NWS in State College is responsible for southern PA and has downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories in response to lesser totals across the border.



  • TIMING - We expect sleet/freezing rain to start mixing in from north to south around 9PM-Midnight. We are in a lull in between two waves of precipitation right now. Light mixing with snow is possible for the northern counties in between the waves. Then after midnight the snow will push southward increasing in intensity. The heaviest snow is anticipated during the morning rush hour from 4AM-Noon, with the heavier rates south of Baltimore. 

  • ACCUMULATIONS: In general we expect 4-8" towards the north near the Mason-Dixon line, and 6-10" further south. We do think a heavy snow band will set up, likely near of south of DC-Annapolis, and stretching westward. This band could be similar to December 8th, 2013, just in a different area. 

OUTDOOR EQUIPMENT OR SERVICING? For Central Maryland readers, we recommend the good folks at GAMBRILLS EQUIPMENT CO. in Severn, Anne Arundel County. They have a full line of snow throwers up to 21", top names in big saws, as well as service many outdoor equipment types including tractors, mowers, snowblowers and more. It's not too late to get heavy-duty equipment for this storm: 410-969-3947



6:25 PM 3/2 ( UPDATE FROM WSC TEAM) March 2014 roars in like a lion! Or a full pride of lions might be more accurate. Here is our latest timing and snowfall accumulation expectations from the Winter Stormcast Team. See below for the most current snow map:
  • TIMING: Rain moving in now, mixing with sleet and freezing rain later this evening, then switching to all snow from north to south late tonight. The heaviest snow is expected Monday morning. 

  • ACCUMULATIONS: Widespread 6-10" with lesser amounts of 4-8" along the Mason-Dixon line. We expect a band of higher amounts (8-14") to set up, but the precise location is uncertain. 

  • TEMPS: Bitterly cold conditions are expected Monday night, with temperatures falling to the single digits for much of the region, and possibly below 0ºF for the northern suburbs.
BOTTOM LINE: This is a rare beast for this time of year! It looks like a high impact event for many places. We are watching the potential for shifts in this accumulation expectations, so stay tuned! 


  (Forecasters Mike, Andrew, Julian, Jason, Advisors Foot, Keith, Rob, Brad)

32 comments:
Central Maryland Team
Local Radar | Central MD Facebook | @footsmdwxMD State Roadway Weather | NWS Baltimore/Washington 






STORM SECRETS IN THE SUNRISE?


9:32 AM 2/12 - A quick comparison between upper level moisture content and the sunrise shows an expected correlation... and a hint of what dreams may come tonight! 

Earlier this morning, observations from BWI data have the lowest cloud level at 25000 feet! This is indicative of just how dry the air is above us. (Photo from East Baltimore)



  • The importance ? Once moisture moves in from the south tonight, snow falling into this dry air will take a while to "moisten the column." If you want a lot of snow (and misery for all of us who work in it  this will case evaporative cooling and raise ratios. The simpler way is to say "the snow brings the temperature down with it" and this creates a feedback loop that in turn allows for more snow to form. 
  • Spot the secret in action! Tonight, if the snow kicks in rather steadily from the start, and the flakes are fluffy, it is a sign the column may be moistening rapidly and the snow machine will go to town-- resulting in totals on the higher side of forecasts.

If the flakes begin very fine grained and light, it's a sign the atmosphere above us is taking longer to moisten, and totals could end on the lower side of projections.



As with everything in science, this is a hypothesis which will have to stand up to scrutiny based on analysis of observed results! It will be an interesting night for Powderhounds and we always look forward to your authentic, local reports when the action kicks off!



(Forecaster Foot and the Advisors)


Unbroken

36 comments:
UNBROKEN
(FACEBOOK STATUS UPDATE FROM OLD MAN WINTER, 
WHEN THE PROGRAM ASKED, "HOW ARE YOU FEELING TODAY?")


  • SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY, COAST-TO-COAST WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT NOW UNDERWAY AS ARCTIC FRONT PRESSES SOUTH & EAST. 
  • TEMPS DURING STORM DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS IN OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE TEENS FOR MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST


EARLIER, WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS STRETCHED FROM 
U.S. ATLANTIC COAST TO NORTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON STATE

Friday, February 28, 2014

Last worthless evening...

42 comments:
"(Is) this is the last worthless evening 
that you'll have to spend...?"
- Don Henley, 1989 single Last Worthless Evening


8:48 PM 2/28 (Winter Stormcast Team) In light of the never-ending story that this current winter storm pattern, we're trying fulfill as many customer back-orders for an early Spring as we can! However, Old Man Winter and his minions apparently placed lots of "pre-orders" for a late season rout! 


HOME RESTORATION or REMODELING after a rough winter? 
We recommend Paul Davis Restoration for post-season recovery project & claims, 
so you're ready when Spring gives the green light!


THE SITUATION While it was a brutally cold Friday across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, coastal California is being pounded by over 6" of heavy rain with heavy snow across the intermountain west. This "wet west - cold east" setup will feature prominently in the Long Range forecast going forward to the first week of March. For those YEARNING to see the end of winter, at least you can say it was the last worthless evening (of February)! 




SLIPPERY SATURDAY As indicated by the swath of Winter Storm Watches and Warnings stretching from the Northern Cascades of Washington state to the Allegheny Plateau of western Pennsylvania, the potential exists for significant accumulations of snow, freezing rain and sleet in these areas. For unsuspecting areas of the Mid-Atlantic and 95 corridor, what looks like a calm day early will give way to clouds, then light freezing drizzle by Noon, making for slippery travel in the area. Highs barely cracking 30 F.



SUNDAY SNOW SETUP - While snow and sleet will be pummeling the central plains and Kentucky/Ohio Valleys on Sunday, in the Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia region temperatures will strangely not be as cold as Friday. Highs ahead of the approaching warm front may edging near 40 F at the PA line and even aiming for 50 or higher in Washington! The relative calm is likely to lull some into the feeling winter's grasp is finally lessening. But no! Old Man Winter's next trap is just behind the tree. 

  • All that heavy precip in Cali? It's going to ride over the Rockies, roll into the central and southern Plains and tap Gulf AND Atlantic moisture along the way. 
  • By Sunday night, snow should be overspreading the southern Blue Ridge and then to the I-95 corridor.
  • By daybreak Monday a wide variety of winter precipitation is possible across much of the heavily populated areas east of I-81 to the coastline. To break down the possibilities, we have outlined 3 scenarios below. On Saturday we will narrow these down to 2 for the Mid-Atlantic. Let us know for which one you are rooting!

 OUR CURRENT STORM "OPTIONS" 
  • SCENARIO A (The Tennessee Trenchcoat) - We project a 20% probability of the eventual Southern Plains system to take a more northerly route, bringing more rain than snow to the major cities and inland areas along the I-40 to I-81 corridor. The I-95 corridor would start as snow overnight Sunday and then change to rain by morning. 
  • SCENARIO B (The Messy Mid-Atlantic) - Due to a more southward pressing Arctic High pressure building in from the Northwest territories (of Canada!), we project a 50% probability that cold air will remain in place across much of the storm track. A northeast fetch of wind ahead of low pressure waves along a front will convert moisture to snow overnight Sunday, but also lead to an expansive area of freezing rain for a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. 
  • SCENARIO C (The Coastal Curmudgeon) - Were the southern low pressure waves to travel ever further south and east toward the coast, the area of heavy snow could easily spread over the major cities and coastal communities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. With liquid equivalents of 1.00"+ and ratios of 15:1 inland and 10:1 near the coast, snowfall could rival what was observed in the Feb 13-14 event. We have assigned a 30% chance of this scenario given the most current information available.
BREAK THE WINTER BLAHS! Our new line of Spring-a-ling hoodies and zipups will help you capture the spirit of the new season to come. In Central Maryland, you can arrange for delivery by forecasters for just $5 on First Friday. Check out the new options at the Authentic Weather Store: http://store.footsforecast.org


Forecaster Evan relishing an epic blue sky in the Spring-a-ling Rainbow Tie-Dye Hoody!




Thursday, February 27, 2014

Marching Back To Winter?

41 comments:
Marching Back To Winter?


4:00 AM 2/27 - As first noted in our post from 2/19/2014, "There Is Another" we can see more clearly through trees of Snowstradamus's mystical forest, and detect early clues of what is building in the long range. What lurks out there looks quite wet, may bring a lot of ice, and would represent a most unwelcome march back to Winter. Grrreaat. Just when Spring sports is set to begin next Monday. 


Early indications of a wintry and stormy pattern to resume this weekend include a resurgent series of Arctic Highs pressing down from western Canada, a more amplified bend in the southern jet stream, and Atlantic moisture input  from the burgeoning Bermuda High. Combine these factors with widespread snow cover in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with copious moisture "overrunning" a cold surface over many states...  and what do you have as one possible outcome?



ICE. This chart above is the projected liquid from today, Thursday 2/27 to next Thursday 3/6. Most of that would fall from late Saturday to Tuesday, and a glimpse at this early precip chart from the Global Forecast System for BWI airport may make you cringe if it actually plays out as shown 5 days from now. We remind that outside 5 days, these are indications, not forecasts. Our intent is to make you aware of general storm ideas, and as the event nears begin to unpack the data one aspect at a time.

(Forecaster Foot and the Long Range Team)






Monday, February 24, 2014

"I keep workin' my way back to you, babe..."

46 comments:


"I keep workin' my way back to you, babe..."
- Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons, 1969 & The Spinners, 1979

4:00 AM 2/24 - Here's a question we cringe to ask first thing on Monday... (cringing...) 

WHO'S READY FOR MORE COLD?? Answer: NO ONE! 

One look at this upper level chart for Friday 2/28 may not give you a burning love inside for long range projections, but it is a strong indication that a version of the deep, intense cold seen in January is working it's way back to the Eastern United States. 


For a quick hit of info on this, here's what our Long Range Coordinator Nic Roberson from High Point, NC  had to say about this pattern development in a report from February 20:




"Our current weather pattern reminds me of mid December 2013. My area (central NC) was very warm during this time frame with temps in the 70s. The last few days have also been very mild with temps yet again in the low to upper 70s across a lot of the Southeast. 
If we recall that last weeks winter storm was also in the pattern that produced winter storms in early/mid December across portions of the eastern US. If we continue along with this setup, I would expect a good bit of March will be quite chilly from the Upper Mid-west and Great Lakes into the eastern US (above the deep south).
Only time will tell, but models thus far support more winter cold in the future."
SNOW & COLD CONCERNS - Today, the cold has invaded the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes already, with highs in the teens for some areas. In the Mid-Atlantic, by Wednesday, highs will barely break 25-30 F with lows in the teens until Friday for most of the region. As for snow potential, no worries, we're still on it! Our Forecasters are glued to model runs today, deciphering the clues from latest data (while keeping an eye out the window for what's really happening 

For the Tuesday-Wednesday period, models are split right now, showing the possible transition of the next storm system to a more onshore track. This would bring more of a rain/snow mix for the I-95 corridor, and mainly snow farther inland. We'll have more on this after the late AM model runs.

(Forecasters Julian B., Nic R. and Advisor Foot)




Wednesday, February 19, 2014

"There is another..."

43 comments:
"There is another..."
- Obi-Wan Kenobi, in Star Wars Episode V: The Empire Strikes Back

7:30 AM 2/22 - After a multi-month rout of winter weather across much of the U.S., we know some storm-worm readers are "SOOO DONE" with this season. Even though temperatures in the Eastern U.S. made a brief run to above normal levels recently, a rapid return to traditional late winter wishywashy-ness is on deck. 


A view from Baltimore County, MD that Snowstradamus
would love. Thanks to reader Joan Garrity for the pic! 
We also know other readers still get an unbridled thrill at any hint of snow in the long range, but have disdain for a damp, rain-washed and messy March. For them, the ideal Spring is rain overnight to water the garden, with pleasant sunshine to fuel budding of trees, and the flowers to come. These are "Spring-A-Lings."

THEN, there are those special types who are most happy when TWO FEET of snow blanket the region, snow is STILL FALLING, and the temperature is, oh, 20 degrees. That would be a "Powderhound."  
THERE IS ANOTHER. Our long range team is pointing to a new, and perhaps final round of significant winter weather in the East. The target time period is between Tue 2/25 and Monday 3/3, and is likely to feature elements of severe weather as well. If you like big coastal storms, this is your time, and yes Obi-Wan... there is another. 

REALLY, I MEAN REALLY?? Well the Chicago NWS Office summed it up nicely with these gently written words of comfort that should put you at ease heading into the final weeks of what has been a lovely winter for many (note: heavy sarcasm laced with innuendo, caution to elementary teachers showing this in class)
"FOR ANYONE WHO MAY CATCH A TOUCH OF SPRING FEVER WITH THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THURSDAY...FORGETABOUTIT! ECMWF/GFS BOTH PAINT SUCH A BLEAK...DISMAL...COLD...AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY PICTURE NEXT WEEK THAT ITS LIKELY TO LEAVE MANY WINTER WEARY SOULS READY TO CURL UP INTO THE FETAL POSITION AND BEG FOR MERCY FROM OLD MAN WINTER!"
We have a more detailed report on this potential, including the traditional breakdown of teleconnection indicators which are starting to line up once again. For now it is safe to say that for the remainder of winter in the East, many along the big cities are going to see snow softly falling one more time while children are sleeping (just hopefully not in class!)

Forecaster Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team


Saturday, February 15, 2014

Help Is On The Way!

88 comments:
Help Is On The Way!
(by the end of next week...)

9:14 PM SAT 2/15 - On this Valentine's Weekend, let's have some good news for  change, shall we? For the storm weary East, we have two words for ya: "BERMUDA HIGH." 

The Climate Prediction Center shows that the current pattern is expected to reverse by late next week, with a strong Eastern ridge replacing the current cold, trough regime. This will allow your summertime friend the Bermuda High to begin establishing offshore. 

The red color swaths indicate an 80% probability of temperatures above normal for the period starting Thursday Feb 19 and extending until at least Feb 25. While will rapid snowmelt and some flooding may occur, at least the temperatures will be a welcome change from the recent weather whiplash! Now, THAT's a forecast to LOVE! 







STILL GOT YOUR POWDERHOUND SPIRIT?  Don't just watch the snow, now you can fully immerse yourself in it with our LIMITED EDITION 10th ANNIVERSARY ZIP-UP OR PULLOVER HOODIES! Our online store is live and ready for you at http://store.footsforecast.org


  • ORDERS PLACED THIS WEEKEND are shipped next Wednesday for delivery on Thu or Fri.
  • LAST WEEK WE SHIPPED over 10 orders via UPS that were delivered NEXT DAY! Thanks to all those who ordered! 
  • SHIPPING for February 2014 is only $7 for 1 item and $12 for 2 or more items. NO handling or processing fees. ;-)
  • Spring seasonal designs are coming! (for those who are DONE with this winter!)  Get ready to style your way from WINTER into SPRING!