Saturday, February 7, 2015

It's all about the O

27 comments:
It's all about the O's...the NAOs

WHO REMEMBERS THE OPENING DAY SNOW OF 2003? THOUGH ONE MIGHT THINK AT FIRST 
THE MANAGER IS ARGUING WITH THE UMPIRE, POWDERHOUNDS KNOW WHAT HE WAS REALLY SAYING...


9:30 AM EST 2/7 - It's tough to be a Powderhound these days, especially in the surprisingly snow-starved Mid-Atlantic. But in contrast to this point in February 2014, alternating bouts of record-breaking cold, surprise ice storms and notable snow events had some crying uncle before the real action from mid-February to late-March even arrived. This year's back-and-forth makes one wonder if perhaps Snow Miser and Heat Miser decided it is more fun to watching hapless snow fans squirm with endless uncertainty, than to bring what we know you really want. Just. One. Good. Storm.


By February 10, the pattern had begun churning toward what became a six-week grand slam of several significant storms. Starting with the 2/13-14 event that delivered 11.5" to Baltimore-Washington Airport in the biggest "pow-wow" since February 2010, each time indications seemed to point away from storms, the setup returned  with a vengeance (or a delight). (Left:  sight you seldom see: School buses plastered in snow. Photo credit: Baltimore Sun, February 2010 )

The result was a "March repeat" of the January 2014 cold outbreak that smashed low temperature records, and then produces two more significant snow events ( St. Patrick's Day and March 24-25) at a time when many baseball fans had long since checked out of winter. The icing (or grease) on the cake was a surprise Tax Day Snow on April 15, 2014 where some saw higher accumulations than the Orioles' famous April 5, 2003 Opening Day Snow! 

Thus, as we head into what is usually one of the stormier parts of the winter, the real question is:
Perhaps Snowstradamus already reported to Spring Training and left us behind? The answer lies in the seemingly minute differences of a lesser-known feature called the "NAO" and why this indicator is evidence of where winter takes us next.

Part 2 In Progress, including:

  • Why this time of year, the North Atlantic Oscillation can be a reliable resource to investigate how the pattern plays out;
  • Is there ANY CHANCE LEFT of a big storm this season, or should  you just check out??
  • AND, for those ready to make the Spring-a-Ling jump, early details on our NEW "Opening Day Orange" Embroidered Pullover that is sure to surprise and delight your fellow Camden Yards friends all season long. (To gauge interest in this special offer, we are accepting no obligation pre-orders in a simple email to orders@footsforecast.org)



Monday, February 2, 2015

And now...February

41 comments:
And now...February














Left: 6-10 day precipitation probability 
Right: 6-10 day temperature probability


1:45 PM 2/2 - It's finally here.  What some consider the snowiest month of the year for several Eastern U.S. states. But is February really the month that produces HIGHER snowfall, more frequent snowfall, or does it just feel that way because of big storms? 

We will present the data and let you decide! But if January left you with a lack-luster feel for winter so far, and you're still waiting to see that ONE meaty storm plaster ALL the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast cities with 6-12"...we just want to say:

Be careful for what you wish. 

History is filled with examples of high impact events in this month that made records, broke political careers and in some cases, even changed the course OF history. Consider:
  • The "Great Blizzard of 1899" that on February 11 dropped snow from Florida to New York, shutting down the eastern seaboard for weeks.
  • The "Lindsay storm" of February 1969 in New York City. For simplicity sake let's say the outcome was opposite of the Jan 2015 NYC Blizzard that wasn't. New York City Mayor John Lindsay was faulted for too slow a reaction to the storm, and the public never forgot, removing him from office in the next election.
  • President's Day Storm, February 17-18, 2003 that once held the top spot in Boston for highest snowfall of 27.3" and up to 24.8" in Baltimore.
  • February 11, 2006 snowstorm that blanketed New York City with 26.9" the largest single event snowfall on record.
  • And no February snowstorm list here goes without including the most memorable major blizzards of recent times in the Mid-Atlantic: The February 2010 double Ultra Kahuna, known together as "Snowmageddon."

Will February 2015 help add to memories of snowy times from yesteryear?
We're on the lookout for indications of when white returns to the winter night.

Before snow returns...A question:

Would you be interested in a "FF cookout" 
and if so, when?

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Kahuna Bachata?

47 comments:
Kahuna Bachata?

  • WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS STRETCH NEARLY 2,000 MILES ACROSS THE COUNTRY
  • NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES RETURN IN STORM'S WAKE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT - AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT


KAHUNA = In Hawaiian culture, a medicine man, sorcerer, priest or person of preeminence. On this site, a term first used in 2004 to describe a potentially significant winter storm that could produce 6-12" or more of snow over a large area.

BACHATA =  A form of music and dance with origins in the neighborhoods of the Dominican Republic. The genre is usually romantic and prevalent with tales of heartbreak and sadness.  In the FF Team, Bachata refers to a winter storm not delivering the expected outcome for an area, in contrast to a bust for a large scale under-performing storm. 

7:31 AM 2/1 – FINAL MAP & PROJECTIONS (Forecaster Mike Natoli, Advisor Foot and the Winter Stormcast Team) 

Saturday sure felt like winter, and now right on schedule, the next winter weather event is charging across the country. Haven't seen the NWS national advisory map? Better take a look. It's a sight to behold. Although sections of the Mid-Atlantic may not seem significant impact, many other areas of the country most definitely will, affecting inter-state commerce, schools, airlines and transportation.






CURRENTLY 
Winter Storm Watches and Warnings now stretch almost 2,000 miles from Owls Head Island in Down East Maine clear across to Hog country in Oshkosh, Nebraska! But unfortunately for the Mid-Atlantic Powderhounds, the "Kahuna" scenario is very unlikely at this point. It would also not be accurate to deem the system "a bust" 24 hours in advance seeing that it has not yet arrived. Please see our "bust scenarios" below for reference.