Saturday, September 23, 2017

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"How do you solve a problem like Maria?"
- from Maria in the Sound of Music

  • WESTWARD SHIFT: Computer model trends past 24 hours are depicting a significant westward shift in Maria's track toward North Carolina's Outer Banks. 
  • CONE OF UNCERTAINTY: The National Hurricane Center's official track has also moved notably west, from solutions earlier this week that were all out to sea.
  • EXPANDED EFFECTS: A strong and large but slowly weakening tropical system results in an expansion of the wind field. A wider area will experience tropical-storm force winds than if the storm was very strong with a tightly-compacted wind core.
  • IMPACTS FOR MID-ATLANTIC COAST? Coastal communities from South Carolina to New Jersey will experience 72+ hours of large and increasing swells, persistent onshore easterly winds, water levels rising with each tide cycle and probable flooding in low-lying areas.