Friday, January 30, 2004

FRI 1/30 MIDDAY UPDATE:

BALTIMORE NWS ISSUES SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FRI AM

RICHMOND, PITTSBURGH, NEW YORK NWS IN LINE WITH THE FORECAST ON THIS SITE... PHILLY IS STILL LAGGING BEHIND AND HEDGING THEIR BETS.

Here is the Baltimore NWS statement. I am sorry it is all caps. That's how they do it.

...A WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR COLD AIR TO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY AS THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. IF THE STORM TRACKS FURTHER EAST...SNOW IS MORE LIKELY...IF IT TRACKS FURTHER WEST...RAIN IS MORE LIKELY.

IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO PRECISELY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THE STORM
AND THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...SO A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS POSSIBLE. LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO MORE PRECISELY DETERMINE THE TYPE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

Some quick translation:
"Abundant moisture" there is at least 1 inch of liquid with this storm. That means about 10 inches of snow under the right conditions at 30 F.

Part of the confusing signals you are getting from everyone (Accuweather, NWS, Weather Channel, etc) is that half the computer models are overlooking the fact that due to the cold air this weekend, the snowpack will remain in place over much of the area. That will in turn keep temperatures low, allowing cold air to stay in place until Monday. Those models have all the snow evaporating by Sunday afternoon, which AIN'T gonna happen with air temps around 27 F on Sat.

The other half of the models are recognizing this snowpack issue, as has the Baltimore NWS. That's why they are coming out great guns on this. The overall thinking on this site is for a colder situation setting up, which will produce higher snow totals, though it will be a heavy wet snow due to the increased amount of moisture with this storm than the last one.

Let me add to the storm preparation ideas from this morning:


1. Get rid of that ice. For homeowners...any remaining ice that is clogging your sump pump outlets, clear it out. Remove ice buildup from your downspouts and gutters if possible. Maybe you can mark the storm drain or sump pump outlet with a tall piece of wood, a coat hanger with a ribbon on it or something. Then you won't have to go digging around to find it in a big pile of ice-frozen snow.

2. For apartment dwellers.. pay close attention to the downspouts if you have a porch. Knock off those icicles as the heavy wet snow will tend to weight them down even more and pull the downspout off.

3. Think about your plans for next Monday-Wednesday. Developing a Plan B now will help avoid stress later. Remember, a heavy wet snow requires a lot more effort on the part of everyone to clean up... from shoveling to plowing to snowblowers.

And lastly, we are not talking about a blizzard or the end of the world or the largest storm in 10 years... but just a hefty amount of dense, wet, unpleasant to shovel snow.

Another update late tonight or early Saturday.

Happy Friday!







1 comment:

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