Foot's Forecast | Weather Intelligence

THU 1/29 EARLY AM : IT'S JUST ANOTHER DAY FOR YOU AND ME IN PARADISE

I hope you can recognize the titles of these songs, I try to select songs from a wide range of musical interests. This is one is from Phil Collins.

For all you powder(ice?)hounds out there... things are coming your way. Maybe the song this morning should be Frank Sinatra's "I'll do it my way."

I have been closely watching the computer models on our next big storm. They complete a new run every 6 or 12 hours. Each run has become consistently colder and wetter. What that translates into is the forecast is turning from what WAS a more rain and less snow to what IS looking like more snow and ice and less rain. The BAL NWS is way out in front on this, they have definitely snagged first place on their analysis of the whole situation. Here's a snippet of their analysis, posted early Thursday morning:

"MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE STILL WORKING OUT THE DETAILS
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH SOLUTION APPEARS RATHER
WET FOR THIS REGION...JUST WITH DIFFERENT TIMING. AND WITH A COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS COULD BE A RECIPE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM.

IF CONSISTENCY AMONG GUIDANCE INCREASES...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK TOMORROW TO GIVE A HEADS UP TO EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS BEFORE THE WEEKEND.".

Remember... the term significant implies 4 or more inches of snow in a 12-hour period, or 6 inches in a 24 hour period. So if the models remain consistent for the next 24 hours, I'll be issuing a first call on accumulations by Friday 1/30. At present, the "liquid equivalents" with this storm are well above the 1.0 inch range, so that will make for a lot of precip.

So I'm sure the powderhounds out there feel that it is going to be another (couple days) in paradise...Oh I can just hear them howling now!