Monday, March 15, 2004


3/15 LATE EVENING UPDATE:
"She'll be comin' around the mountain when she comes."

- Old Folk Tune, I forget the title

Two low pressure systems are teaming up as they move northeast from Tennessee to northern Virginia while a Canadian High is parking itself in just the right place...upstate New York and the Great Lakes... to deliver fresh cold air as the precip arrives. So yes, unbelieveable as it may be, but your snow will be coming around the mountain tomorrow morning.

A situation like this has not happened since March 1958, when spring had sprung in force for 5 days, and then a 3-4 foot snowstorm crushed barns and left some readers of this site to walk home in snowdrifts up to their knees.

We are not going to see 3-4 feet, more like 3-4 inches in Frederick County. This is not your father's snowstorm. But it is still unbelieveably bizarre to even me that the temperature is going to drop, oh, another 20 DEGREES between now (8:45 PM) and daybreak tomorrow. I mean it was like MAY late today, and I was just about ready to dance in the streets like a dyed-in-the-wool spring-a-ling. I'm out in the school parking lot thinking....

WHAT STORM? I DON'T EVEN SEE CLOUDS!

But if we turn to that old Vulcan, Mr. Spock, he would say: "The universe will unfold as it should." And so it will starting at daybreak Tuesday. Are you dreaming of a white St. Patrick's Day?

HOURLY ESTIMATE OF PRECIP IN BALTIMORE AREA

12 am - Clouds increase.
2 am - Wind picks up from the northeast.
4 am - Temperature has dropped to near 40. Sprinkles and flurries in the city.
5 am - Sprinkles and flurries continue, changing to light snow and rain.
6 am - A mix of heavy wet snow and rain arrives in force throughout the area. Areas north of Baltimore will see a burst of heavy snow sometime after 6 am, as the atmosphere rapidly cools with the onset of snow.

8 am - A mix of snow and rain from the city on south. Snow hangs on longer north of the city, accumulating 1-2 inches on grassy areas, sidewalks, etc.

10 am - South and east of Owings Mills, Towson, Perry Hall will see a changeover to all rain. North of that area, the snow may hang tough until after lunch.

12 pm - Storm begins exiting, pulls precip east of the area. Lots of leftover clouds and just a raw, miserable afternoon. Better to just go home after work and curl up with some peppermint tea and relive the good old days on the archives of Foot's Forecast.

HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES FOR CENTRAL PA

2 am - Light snow moves in from southwest to northeast.
4 am - Snow continues and becomes heavier as daybreak approaches.
6 am - You awaken to a winter wonderland. At least 2" on the ground.
8 am through noon - snow continues, mixing with rain for a brief time in southern areas (near Pittsburgh). Total accumulations 3-6 inches.

HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES FOR PHILADELPHIA AREA

6 am - Light snow and rain mixed starts the morning.
8 am - A burst of heavy wet snow for perhaps an hour will leave an inch or two on grassy areas. Chester County could see up to 3 inches by noon.

3 pm - Storm exits east, but lots of wrap-around precip means leftover snow showers and cloudiness the rest of the day. It will be like the beauty of Monday never happened.

6 pm - Might be another burst of snow towards the end of the day as the storm redevelops off the coast before slamming New England.

WHAT ABOUT SCHOOL?

MD:
Frederick, Carroll - Start with a delay, then re-evaluate.
Baltimore, Harford - Despite the fruit cup, if snow is falling over much of Baltimore County by 6:00 AM, they will start with a delay, possibly 2 hours.
Howard - Delay is doubtful given you are farther south

If you see any of the metro area counties call for a delay by 5:00 AM, then it will be a domino effect.

PA:

Chester County - This will be a tough call... as the precip will start later in the rush hour and it will be mostly snow. I will predict schools actually try to start on time and get students in before it gets bad.

Altoona/State College - 2 hour delay is a good bet, possibly closed depending on the intensity of the snowfall.

CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS, WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT SNOW?. And I was ready to issue the Hurricane Forecast. Pshaw.

Baby Jayla has started to teethe in force. You can always tell with babies that there could be something wrong when they are arching their back, stiffening their legs, screaming at the top of their lungs, and have turned a pretty shade of bright pink, refusing all food, drink, etc. So anyway, I'm sure Jayla and I will be checking on the progress of the storms tonight (the one in her mouth, and the one outside).

Hopefully if I'm not too wiped out, I can do a follow-up post tomorrow morning before heading off to school at 7 AM (nudge, nudge, wink, wink).

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