Saturday, June 19, 2004


"JUNE IS BUSTING OUT ALL OVER!"

- from the musical Carousel

I've been waiting months to use that tagline. I'll bet that song takes some of you back a few years. Those beautiful sunny clear days and mid June temperatures have finally arrived, and along with it, everyone's favorite season. These are the days when it even just being at home feels like you are on vacation in the Caribbean since the weather is so nice.

Now that school is finally over, we can get some real work done around the house... as well as other important things, like:
- Preparing for hurricane season
- Preparing for ski season
- Planning trips for the Dundalk Adventure Club
- Playing with the baby
- Enjoying a fun-filled vacation of 66 days with my two lovely ladies: Dana and Jayla
(Dana is my wife, Jayla is my daughter, for those of you who don't know)

AND NOW ON TO BUSINESS...

VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST:
A moderate intensity tropical low did develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and drifted over the southern states before becoming an organized system. This was the cause of all the hot, humid weather the past week. The original forecast called (and still calls for) a weak tropical storm to develop in the Gulf before June is over.

CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - none
Pacific - Typhoon Dianmu is taking aim at Japan. Pretty strong little beast... at 140 mph with gusts to 165 mph. Remember that activity in the Pacific is a pretense to what happens in the Atlantic down the road, as the weather in the two oceans is always "teleconnected" via re-distribution of heat in the atmosphere.

PROJECTED TROPICAL ACTIVITY through June 27:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - conditions are favorable for a tropical low to develop in the western Gulf this coming week.
Carribean - none
Pacific - area of disturbed weather near Panama bears watching

BIG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT MONTH:
Above normal sea surface temperatures continue along the U.S. East Cost and Gulf of Mexico will provide enhanced conditions for tropical development. It is not improbable that a weak tropical storm or even a Category 1 Hurricane will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico or southern Carribean before June is over.

TROPICAL FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER: (revised 6-21-04)
June - 1 tropical storm, may make landfall along Florida coast or northern Carribean.
July - 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. One of these makes landfall along the Gulf Coast.
August - 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and make landfall between New Orleans, LA and Galveston, TX
September - 3 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. 2 storms make landfall along the East Coast,
1 in the Carolinas, 1 in New England. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and strike the Mid-Atlantic between Norfolk, VA and New York City.
October - 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes. The hurricanes do not make landfall, but 1 tropical storm strikes the Carribean, and the other western Florida.
November - 1 late season hurricane in the North Atlantic, which goes on to affect the Baltic coast of Northern Europe as an extra-tropical system.

THE GRAND TOTAL:
Tropical Storms - 11
Hurricanes - 6
Landfalling tropical systems - 8

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