Tuesday, June 1, 2004


JUNE UPDATE TO HURRICANE FORECAST


Now that the Hurricane season has officially begun (as of June 1), we can start the tropical update bandwagon going. Below is an example of how I will post information pertaining to tropical systems between now and the end of the season (Nov 30)

CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - none
Pacific - none

PROJECTED TROPICAL ACTIVITY through June 8:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - tropical low near Panama may become better organized
Pacific - area of disturbed weather west of Central America bears watching

BIG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT MONTH:
Much above normal sea surface temperatures along the U.S. East Cost and Gulf of Mexico will continue to provided enhanced conditions for tropical development. It is not improbable that a weak tropical storm or even a Category 1 Hurricane will develop in the Gulf of Mexico or southern Carribean before June is over.

THE BIG FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER:
June - 1 tropical storm, may make landfall along Florida coast or northern Carribean.
July - 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes. One of these makes landfall along the Gulf Coast.
August - 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and make landfall between New Orleans, LA and Galveston, TX
September - 4 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. 2 storms make landfall along the East Coast,
1 in the Carolinas, 1 in New England. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and strike the Mid-Atlantic between Norfolk, VA and New York City.
October - 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes. The hurricanes do not make landfall, but 1 tropical storm strikes the Carribean, and the other western Florida.
November - 1 late season hurricane in the North Atlantic, which goes on to affect the Baltic coast of Northern Europe as an extra-tropical system.

THE GRAND TOTAL:
Tropical Storms - 13
Hurricanes - 7
Landfalling tropical systems - 8

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