Tuesday, June 29, 2004


VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST:

Tropical moisture continues to stream into the Texas coast, southern plains and southeast. This is the area that many forecasters had been expecting would generate a tropical system, but upper-level conditions were not favorable.

It now appears the original forecast of 1 tropical system in June will not come true.

CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - none
Pacific - Typhoon Mindulle is taking aim at Taiwan. Very dangerous storm with winds ... at 145 mph and gusts to 175 mph. There is also a smaller, but still strong typhoon east of that. Activity in the Pacific is a pretense to what happens in the Atlantic down the road, as the weather in the two oceans is always "teleconnected" via re-distribution of heat in the atmosphere.

PROJECTED TROPICAL ACTIVITY through July 4:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - tropical moisture inflow will continue over southern states for the next several days, shifting to the southeast as a front presses in from the north.
Carribean - tropical waves moving east from Africa will impact the southern island areas later in the week.
Pacific - continued areas of disturbed weather along the southern Central American coast.

BIG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT MONTH:
Sea surface temperatures at above 80 F throughout the Gulf of Mexico and along Florida coast. Areas to watch will include the southern Gulf, southern Caribbean and Mexican coast for tropical development.

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