Wednesday, August 25, 2004

FEAR FRANCES?

Tropical Cyclone number 6 is brewing in the South Atlantic. Check "The Weather Underground" link to the left for latest details. It is projected to follow a track similar to Allen in 1980 which struck the southern panhandle of Texas as a Cat 3, and...

Andrew in 1992, which we all know is now the storm by which all other storms are compared.

There is just as much of a chance that this storm will turn out to sea as it nears Puerto Rico, as it does of taking aim on Florida's East Coast. However... atmospheric dynamics are showing that "things" will be setting up to allow whatever gets near our coast in the next 5-10 days will not be facing a cold front to shove it out of the way. And the Gulf of Mexico, though quiet now, may start popping next week due to the warmth that has built up recently due to a long period of uninterrupted sunshine.

AND... I HAVE AN EARLY LOOK AT THE WINTER WEATHER FORECAST...

It goes like this:
1. Notice the summer has been relatively "cool" on the east coast. No big heat waves of 100+ fpr several days. No long stretches of 90+ days. That is bad (or good).

2. So the atmosphere has not balanced out it's quota of heat thus far this summer. That means we are due for a backlash before summer is over.

3. If we (along I-95) get more than one day of 90+ heat in September, expect snow the first week of December (or sooner). The overbudget on heat in Sep will over-correct with a cooler than normal October, which will retaliate with a wamer than normal November (last Nov 1 it was 75 F), which results in December starting out much cooler than normal (enter our first snowday back on Dec 5-6, 2003).

4. If we notice that sea surface temperatures off the western coast of Mexico and Peru are 3 or more degrees above normal by October 15 (read... El Nino), then expect a big snowstorm in late January or early February 2005. Maybe not the blizzard, but close.

Oh, I can just see the drool running off your mouth and onto your keyboard. Hope you have one of those plastic keyboard protectors. (I do, for that very reason.)

Let's let Frances do her thing for a couple days, then I'll check back on her this weekend.

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