Tuesday, August 10, 2004


LOOK OUT FOR BONNIE AND CLYDE..I MEAN...CHARLEY

Only those who know their history can recall Bonnie and Clyde. Wouldn't it be neat if that was the C-name on the hurricane list?

If you want the basic overview of these two storms, go to the "Weather Underground" link to the left. Otherwise, here's the situation...

Bonnie is:
- a tropical storm that will turn north and become a Category 1 hurricane before striking the Florida peninsula near Pensacola early Friday morning. Max winds I estimate will reach 80 mph before landfall

- located in extremely warm water and a very favorable environment for the next 36 hours.

- similar to previous storms that were small, but rapidly intensified overnight with little warning. Hurricane Opal in 1995 was an example... went from weak Cat 1 to strong Cat in 12 hours, and hit the same area that Bonnie is aiming for.

- going to move quickly over/up the East Coast, though inland. It will draw in moisture from the Atlantic, and affect the I-95 corridor with bursts of heavy rain on Friday. Then she will be gone on Saturday.

- probably going to give us more than a few surprises, such as more rain than we expected, stronger winds than we expected, a higher storm surge in Florida than we expected. I say this because I've seen little bitsy storms like this get very strong very quickly in this same area of the world.

Charley is:
- a moderate tropical storm, but has a very large circulation and is moving fairly quickly across the southern Caribbean.

- in a very favorable environment for development over the next week. I expect Charley to be a hurricane by late Wednesday or Thursday. He is taking aim for Cuba.

- probably going to cross the Cuba on Thursday, and then re-emerge and intensify off the western Florida coast on Friday. This storm make reach Category 3 strength before making landfall in the neck of the Florida panhandle. Poor Florida, two storms in one week.

- going to re-emerge in the Atlantic along the South Carolina coast, and possibly move UP along the East Coast, hugging it closely. This will be very bad for beach erosion.

- the storm which has the potential to cause significant tidal flooding for our area if he follows this path as explained above.

ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS TO FLORIDA OR THE CAROLINAS IN THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON BOTH STORMS

Next update will be Wednesday afternoon 8/11.


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