Wednesday, September 22, 2004

BREAKING NEWS: (that is sure to break the heart of Floridians)

IVAN IS REBORN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS UP FROM MOUTH OF MISS TO TEXAS

I am not making this up. Here is the latest satellite imagery.



Read the 7:00 PM discussion from the National Hurricane Center:
(Please excuse the caps, that's how the gov't forecasters write)

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN.

WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHCENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

Unfreakinbelieveable.
You just never know what Mother Nature has in store for us next.

So let me make what will seem right now to be a crazy call... but after Ivan gets over the warmer waters of the western Gulf near Houston, this may not seem so crazy in retrospect.

IVAN BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL. Is that wild or what?

I just have this weird feeling that it will intensify much more rapidly than anyone expects. The Weather Channel reports this is already a tropical storm. I expect winds by morning of perhaps 50 mph, and by Friday morning, the NHC will realize this thing just will not let go, is intensifying, and they will be caught with their pants down having to change the Tropical Storm Warnings to Hurricane Warnings for the Texas Coast. We're only talking Cat 1 here, but still it is history in the making that a storm would die, be written off, then get reborn with the same name and be returned to hurricane status. Now that is a drama.

After landfall on Friday night, Ivan is forecasted to reach the Houston area, then stall for 2 days. That means flooding rains and that part of Texas is infamous for terrible flooding. O god, here we go again.

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