Wednesday, September 22, 2004


9/22 update:

Most computer models are now leaning towards Jeanne to turn west after completing her southern loop-de-loop. By the weekend, she starts churning toward the Southeast, and probably grazes the Carolinas on Sunday or Monday. After that, another big Canadian high pressure system wants to stick it's nose in things. This high is expected to nudge southeast, and build a ridge that will extend out into the Northern Atlantic... possibly TRAPPING Jeanne,

What that means is Jeanne could very well live up to her infamous name as the Mean Wind and Rain Machine. The fear that some forecasters at Accuweather have is that Jeanne does not exactly make a traditional landfall, but rather rakes the Mid-Atlantic coast for two or three days. The resulting northeast winds push Chesapeake Bay water west-ward into the upland inlets and rivers.

The other problem is a very heavy soaking rain for several days. If the rain gets far enough north, we could be looking at another flooding situation for southern PA, NJ, the Del-Mar-Va and nearby areas.

If the map below comes true, the time frame for all this is Sunday night into Wednesday. Expect the weather to deteriorate by Monday morning, with northeast winds, and more clouds as the day progresses. By Tuesday morning, the Mid-Atlantic should have persistent northeast winds and increasing rain. The track will dictate what risk there is to schools being closed before, during or after this event. If Jeanne hugs the coast as a hurricane, there is potential for a day or two off school in eastern Maryland and southern Virginia.

YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST...Matthew tomorrow, Nicole on Thursday.

Not every system that comes across Africa develops, but this season has been an exception.
Lisa will become a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday, and a fairly extensive system behind her will become at least a tropical depression on the same day. If that system shows continued signs of strengthening, it will become Matthew. So perhaps by tomorrow night or Thursday morning, we will have FIVE... count 'em FIVE named storms on the charts.

Nicole will be the daugther of Ivan, as the low-level circulation reaches warm waters in the western Gulf, and gets under an upper-level anticyclone which provides the ventilation needed for development. By Thursday night this may be a new tropical depression, and once it reaches maximum winds of 40 mph... Nicole will be it's name. It's target? The Texas/Louisiana Coast. The arrival time? Friday into Saturday.

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