Wednesday, December 8, 2004


Yes, I agree that winter is taking a while to make it's entrance. Wednesday and Thursday will make it seem that Global Warming is here to stay, but this is a necessary bump on the road if you want a long duration severe outbreak of cold and snow.

The later that the weather stays warm, the longer and more brutal the cold will eventually be.


Phase 1: The Warm Spell

Wed- Highs in low 60's throughout NE corridor from DC to PHL. Windy. 50's in upstate PA.
Thu- Less windy, abundant sunshine, highs around 60, low 50's upstate PA.
Fri- The first "transition" storm of the eventual winter pattern moves in from the Tennessee Valley. Rain for east coast by late in the day. Highs in low 50's.

Phase 2: Back Door Cold Front

Sat- Storm moves into New York, with rain along coast in AM, and snow/rain mixed turning to snow from Central PA west to Michigan, and scattered accumulations in the mountains down to Tenn/NC. Random areas of West VA to southcentral PA will see up to 2 or so inches of randon
accumulation once lake effect kicks in. Much colder air to follow with highs in 30's, lows in 20's.
Ski resorts begin making snow.

Sun- Brisk NW winds behind cold front will drive the lake snow machine, with flurries and light snow from central NY south to State College and West VA. Highs in 40's along coast, 30's in mountains.

Phase 3: The Invasion Begins

Mon- Another weak system passing to the north will unlock the final barrier between us and the Arctic air. "Cross polar flow" will begin to establish itself with a series of upper air systems that are lining up to allow direct discharge of brutally cold Siberian air to travel across pole and unload in eastern United States. (This is the upper air setup beginning on Monday, we won't feel it at surface until about Wed or Thu).

Tue- The recent warmth will make it seem like Tue's high of 42 in Baltimore is frigid. Welcome to my world... as overnight lows henceforth into the foreseeable future will not break 30.

Wed- Prepare for progressively colder and colder with each passing day. High 40, low 20.

Phase 4: A look ahead

Next weekend: Snow and ice is possible at some point next Fri-Sun
The week after: Unbelieveably cold air to make the week leading up to Christmas seem like it was designed especially for Dickens. Hence the saying, "Cold as the Dickens." All courtesy of the Polar Express from Siberia. In PA... highs in 20's lows in single digits. In MD/VA.. 30/10.

Snow days? Yes, I maintain that there will be one snow day before Christmas for all you in schoolhouse land.

White Christmas? Yes, quite likely that much of the country from Georgia north and east will have snow on the ground Dec 25th.

Enjoy! Next update this weekend sometime when we start to see evidence of this unfolding.

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