Monday, December 20, 2004


After Monday's disappointment, this probably seems like ratings hype to you, but it is a forecast confirmed by two different computer models... the GFS and the ETA. And loyal readers like you deserve to get the inside story.

And it's been consistently showing up in model runs for the past couple days. Although it will warm up and rain heavily Thursday, as the Accuweather graphics below indicate, another Arctic front will sweep south. If you though the current blast was cold, this one coming for the weekend is even colder. A gulf/coastal low is expected to form along the front boundary. It is a questionable call for the Mid-Atlantic, though, because I have seen this kind of arrangement before, and two things happened, either:

1) Southern storms have had a tendency to snow themselves out before reaching the NE big cities. Although this storm may be an exception, it is rare to have a snowstorm reach from Texas to New England.

2) The Arctic front moves too swiftly, and like what just happened, all the moisture gets shoved out to sea. The result is a historical storm in the deep south, but the snow never gets farther north than Norfolk. Hence, lots of weeping and gnashing of teeth as the I-95 corridor gets jipped again.

For all of you (like us) who will be gallavanting over the river and through the woods to Grandmother's house, I too shall keep the vigil over the computer models. If it looks like this will turn into a Christmas Coastal whiteout, you'll be the first to know, as it is sure to impact the travel for millions everywhere.

So those of you along I-95 from Atlanta to Boston, don't despair at the heavy rain, and possibly even thunderstorms on Thursday... it is a temporary blip in the Arctic march. You'll see things begin to change rapidly come Friday morning.

UPDATES: I'll do a few blurbs between now and Wednesday night, then Thursday morning a full overview of the Christmas Weekend Storm, if there is one. I must warn you that the next wave of cold air IS COLDER than the current one.

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