Tuesday, June 29, 2004


VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST:

Tropical moisture continues to stream into the Texas coast, southern plains and southeast. This is the area that many forecasters had been expecting would generate a tropical system, but upper-level conditions were not favorable.

It now appears the original forecast of 1 tropical system in June will not come true.

CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - none
Pacific - Typhoon Mindulle is taking aim at Taiwan. Very dangerous storm with winds ... at 145 mph and gusts to 175 mph. There is also a smaller, but still strong typhoon east of that. Activity in the Pacific is a pretense to what happens in the Atlantic down the road, as the weather in the two oceans is always "teleconnected" via re-distribution of heat in the atmosphere.

PROJECTED TROPICAL ACTIVITY through July 4:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - tropical moisture inflow will continue over southern states for the next several days, shifting to the southeast as a front presses in from the north.
Carribean - tropical waves moving east from Africa will impact the southern island areas later in the week.
Pacific - continued areas of disturbed weather along the southern Central American coast.

BIG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT MONTH:
Sea surface temperatures at above 80 F throughout the Gulf of Mexico and along Florida coast. Areas to watch will include the southern Gulf, southern Caribbean and Mexican coast for tropical development.

Saturday, June 19, 2004


"JUNE IS BUSTING OUT ALL OVER!"

- from the musical Carousel

I've been waiting months to use that tagline. I'll bet that song takes some of you back a few years. Those beautiful sunny clear days and mid June temperatures have finally arrived, and along with it, everyone's favorite season. These are the days when it even just being at home feels like you are on vacation in the Caribbean since the weather is so nice.

Now that school is finally over, we can get some real work done around the house... as well as other important things, like:
- Preparing for hurricane season
- Preparing for ski season
- Planning trips for the Dundalk Adventure Club
- Playing with the baby
- Enjoying a fun-filled vacation of 66 days with my two lovely ladies: Dana and Jayla
(Dana is my wife, Jayla is my daughter, for those of you who don't know)

AND NOW ON TO BUSINESS...

VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST:
A moderate intensity tropical low did develop in the northern Gulf of Mexico and drifted over the southern states before becoming an organized system. This was the cause of all the hot, humid weather the past week. The original forecast called (and still calls for) a weak tropical storm to develop in the Gulf before June is over.

CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - none
Pacific - Typhoon Dianmu is taking aim at Japan. Pretty strong little beast... at 140 mph with gusts to 165 mph. Remember that activity in the Pacific is a pretense to what happens in the Atlantic down the road, as the weather in the two oceans is always "teleconnected" via re-distribution of heat in the atmosphere.

PROJECTED TROPICAL ACTIVITY through June 27:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - conditions are favorable for a tropical low to develop in the western Gulf this coming week.
Carribean - none
Pacific - area of disturbed weather near Panama bears watching

BIG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT MONTH:
Above normal sea surface temperatures continue along the U.S. East Cost and Gulf of Mexico will provide enhanced conditions for tropical development. It is not improbable that a weak tropical storm or even a Category 1 Hurricane will develop in the western Gulf of Mexico or southern Carribean before June is over.

TROPICAL FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER: (revised 6-21-04)
June - 1 tropical storm, may make landfall along Florida coast or northern Carribean.
July - 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. One of these makes landfall along the Gulf Coast.
August - 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and make landfall between New Orleans, LA and Galveston, TX
September - 3 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. 2 storms make landfall along the East Coast,
1 in the Carolinas, 1 in New England. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and strike the Mid-Atlantic between Norfolk, VA and New York City.
October - 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes. The hurricanes do not make landfall, but 1 tropical storm strikes the Carribean, and the other western Florida.
November - 1 late season hurricane in the North Atlantic, which goes on to affect the Baltic coast of Northern Europe as an extra-tropical system.

THE GRAND TOTAL:
Tropical Storms - 11
Hurricanes - 6
Landfalling tropical systems - 8

Tuesday, June 1, 2004


JUNE UPDATE TO HURRICANE FORECAST


Now that the Hurricane season has officially begun (as of June 1), we can start the tropical update bandwagon going. Below is an example of how I will post information pertaining to tropical systems between now and the end of the season (Nov 30)

CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - none
Pacific - none

PROJECTED TROPICAL ACTIVITY through June 8:
Atlantic - none
Gulf of Mexico - none
Carribean - tropical low near Panama may become better organized
Pacific - area of disturbed weather west of Central America bears watching

BIG CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT MONTH:
Much above normal sea surface temperatures along the U.S. East Cost and Gulf of Mexico will continue to provided enhanced conditions for tropical development. It is not improbable that a weak tropical storm or even a Category 1 Hurricane will develop in the Gulf of Mexico or southern Carribean before June is over.

THE BIG FORECAST FOR THIS SUMMER:
June - 1 tropical storm, may make landfall along Florida coast or northern Carribean.
July - 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes. One of these makes landfall along the Gulf Coast.
August - 2 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and make landfall between New Orleans, LA and Galveston, TX
September - 4 tropical storms, 1 hurricane. 2 storms make landfall along the East Coast,
1 in the Carolinas, 1 in New England. The hurricane will be Category 2 or greater and strike the Mid-Atlantic between Norfolk, VA and New York City.
October - 3 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes. The hurricanes do not make landfall, but 1 tropical storm strikes the Carribean, and the other western Florida.
November - 1 late season hurricane in the North Atlantic, which goes on to affect the Baltic coast of Northern Europe as an extra-tropical system.

THE GRAND TOTAL:
Tropical Storms - 13
Hurricanes - 7
Landfalling tropical systems - 8