Wednesday, July 7, 2004


VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS FORECAST:


We have passed the first week in July with no named tropical systems, and safely left the month of June with NO systems. That's ONE down and FOUR to go. However, down the road, the lack of a system allows Gulf and Atlantic water to continue warming. When a tropical system does move through, it stirs up the water, and produces upwelling, which brings cooler water to the surface. A storm forming on the heels of a preceding one usually runs into this cool water, thus weakening it.

However, if a long time period elapses before a storm develops at all, it is more likely to be STRONGER once it forms. Prime example was Hurricane Andrew, 1992. The first named storm of the season ended up as a Category 5 landfalling storm. Do you think it was a freak of nature that the waters off Florida's coast had ALL SUMMER to warm up, since the hurricane did not arrive until late August?

CURRENT TROPICAL ACTIVITY:

Eastern Atlantic - two tropical waves have moved off the African coast. The first is falling apart, but the second bears watching as it has deep convection (thunderstorm activity) and will move into ocean waters that are at least 80 F. Upper-level conditions are projected to become more favorable for this wave.

Gulf of Mexico - all quiet, though waters throughout the Gulf are 85 or more as you would expect this time of year.

Caribbean - small tropical wave moving through Puerto Rico and south east islands.

Pacific - A well-deserved break as no tropical systems in progress. Three big typhoons have moved through the Taiwan and Japan Islands the past month.

PROJECTED TROPICAL ACTIVITY through July 14:

Atlantic - the tropical wave moving off Africa near the Cape Verde Islands may become the first named storm of the season.

Gulf of Mexico - tropical moisture inflow will continue over southern states for the next several days, shifting to the southeast as a front presses in from the north.

Caribbean - a weak tropical wave in the central Atlantic will impact the southern island areas later in the week.

Pacific - seasonal development of thunderstorms along the Mexican coast. Waters are very warm...approaching 90 F in many areas on the west Mex coast.

BIG CONCERNS FOR THE REST OF THIS MONTH:

The "Cape Verde" system bears watching. It will be in the Central Atlantic within a week, and north of Puerto Rico within 10 days. A lot can happen in that time, including strong upper level shearing that can tear storms apart. But so far those winds have been
light.

Any of my readers can be assured that if a system is named, my coverage will switch to a daily update of the situation. You can always check the status of a storm at "The Weather Underground" link to the left.