Sunday, January 16, 2005


What you see above is the beginning of a parade of storms that will finally return winter to it's proper location on the calendar. Water temperature indications in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern Pacific are lining up to deliver the conditions necessary for what I think will be one or two hefty storms in February. I believe the I-95 corridor will see at least one solid 6-12" snowfall early next month. So let's start the parade...

Sunday 1/16: I should have posted this on Saturday, as I felt areas of the northeast would be getting a surprise snow. NWS forecast as of yesterday was partly cloudy. But the model (top, left) above was clearly indicating available moisture and temperatures for snow. Mountains and areas near water might get 1-2" while interior sections (Frederick, northern Balto County), will see one inch or less. But at least it will be snowing from DC to NYC for a change.

Wednesday 1/19: Midterm Mayhem. My school, as are many others, having midterms this coming week. The weather promises to interfere. In the top right model frame, Baltimore and DC are close to the 540mb thickness line (the blue line), which means a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow. There will be low-level cold air at the surface, and a bit of overrunning warm air above. Central PA as you can see, is well inside the green, which means a general 2-4". This event looks to be sometime from late morning into the evening, so it definitely has the potential to mess up midterms, and put snow on the ground for the Inauguration Ceremony Thursday.

Next weekend 1/21-23: Since the Adventure Club at my school is going on a ski trip next Friday, we need snow. Lo and behold, Mother Nature is going to deliver right on time. The bottom two model frame indicate a clipper system coming from the Lakes to the mid-atlantic. These generally do not produce a lot of snow for the East Coast. This one, however, is moving a bit slower, and projected to come more across PA then the higher western MD and WVA mountains, which tend to rob clippers of moisture. Central PA could see another 2-4" of powder-like snow on Saturday. If it moves slow enough, it has time to tap Atlantic and Chesapeake Bay moisture, which is why I believe I-95 cities from Richmond north to NYC will see a couple inches of snow from this one. As you can see on the lower right frame, if this system gets to the coast and has the chance to redevelop, it could hammer NYC and New England.

So now you know the parade is on the way, all we have to do is wait for it. The next update Sunday night.

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