Monday, January 24, 2005

WILL LIGHTNING STRIKE THE SAME PLACE TWICE?

Don't get too comfortable in the Northeast with the idea that storm was it for us. There are rumblings in the computer models (the more RELIABLE ones) that another, more potent system may develop late next weekend. With several large extremely cold Arctic highs rolling in from eastern Canada, temperatures this week will stay well below whatever you see forecasted. The GFS especially is mis-reading the influence of snowcover, and thus local forecasters have to adjust the numbers.

What appears to be setting up is by Friday... a medium sized high parked near Montreal, with COLD AIR DAMMING down the Appalachians, and a coastal low forming along the Carolinas. I am not making this up for ratings sake. If the northwest flow continues and the upper trough shows to be tilting back toward the Great Lakes, by Saturday or Sunday we could be looking at EITHER:

- ANOTHER MAJOR STORM OF NEAR-HISTORIC POTENTIAL this weekend for the Northeast OR
- A CRIPPLING ICE STORM FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA by Sunday.

Since I am going to school today, I will not have as much time to analyze this situation, but will have the inside scoop for you by the end of the day. I also want to do a storm wrapup because there is much to discuss so you understand where I will be taking the February forecast. And I will also do a wrapup of the situation in southeastern New England.


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