Thursday, February 24, 2005

"IT'S EITHER THIS OR THAT WAY, IT'S ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
IT SHOULD BE ONE DIRECTION, IT COULD BE ON REFLECTION."
- Enya, in "Anywhere Is" from the album Memory of Trees

THERE IS SO MUCH TO SAY AND SO LITTLE TIME TO SAY IT. As with so many other storms, it's either this way or that way, one way or the other. I have chosen the slightly higher way, with a tad bit more snow than is forecasted, due to enhanced snow ratios from evaporative cooling, more wrap-around than expected, and and earlier start time than expected. Since we now have a FULL SNOW DAY for Baltimore County Schools (thank you very much), Later on, I will update my totals below slightly and add in the QPF rationale for these. Then sometime today will be a brief discussion of KAHUNA 2. Can't wait to show you the graphics I have prepared for this. Winter ain't done by a long shot.

THE BOTTOM LINE ? WE HAVE AN I-95 SPECIAL

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE PERIOD 5 AM 2/24 TO 5 PM 2/25: Revised as of 8AM Thursday.

NORTH CAROLINA: Sorry folks, light snow in mountains only.

VIRGINIA: Roanoke...3 / Hayes...1.5 / Richmond...2 / Loudon County...5.5

WASHINGTON, DC...6 / WEST VIRGINIA: Harper's Ferry...4

MARYLAND: Odenton...6 / Baltimore...5 / Dundalk...5 / Myersville...4.5

Towson...4 / Hereford...4.5 / Aberdeen...6 / Bel Air...5

PENNSYLVANIA: Pittsburgh...3 / Altoona...2.5 / State College....2 / Bucks County...6

York...6 / Paoli-Frazer-Exton...5 / Philadelphia....5 / NEW JERSEY: Rutgers U...6

NEW YORK: Binghampton...1 / NYC...4.5 / MASSACHUSETTS: Boston...4.5 / Woburn...4

I will revise this with an explanation of how I arrived at these numbers, as well as a storm overview Thursday later morning, after I get some more SLEEP. As of 5:05 AM, Flurries had begun in Dundalk.

8:00AM revision as it seems storm is now on a fairly consistent northeast track but is also moving a tad bit faster out to sea, snowfall amounts are being trimmed back a bit so that the numbers forecasted are on the high end but will fall within a margin of a passing grade (C or better, I don't consider D passing)

AND NOW... FOR THE BURNING QUESTION OF THE DAY...SCHOOL?

FUGGETABOUTIT. No School in Baltimore / DC Metro areas for THURSDAY and possibly even FRIDAY. Yes you read that correctly, the first 4 day snow weekend since December 2002. Why am I so confident? In Baltimore County, MD On December 4 of that year, we had a 7 inch snowfall occur on a Wednesday night-Thursday morning. It ended by late Thursday afternoon. But there was no school Thursday or Friday because it simply takes too long to clear 7 inches from the bus lots and school parking lots. So that is the key. 5 inches = school on Friday, 6 inches = 2 hour delay Friday. 7 or more inches = FOUR DAY WEEKEND!

And then lurking at the end of your local forecast is...............Kahuna 2

The next update around Lunch today, along with snow pictures from Dundalk, MD.

22 comments:

mommyof3 said...

I was just wondering if there was text to go with the latest update? Thanks for burning the midnight oil with this storm update.

linda said...

Good night all. Talk to you during the storm. lm

E.H. Boston said...

8-12"+, if I may ask what computer models are you looking at?

MA Penna said...

Well the other comments are gone, here is that link I talked about.


http://www.nbc10.com/slideshow/weather/4224497/detail.html?qs=;s=1;p=weather;dm=ss;w=320


I'm not sure what models they look at. Is anyone else from Phila area have a preference on local weather? Or do you look at the model computers yourself and use Mr Foot's forecasts?

I mostly look at this site and weather.com for my ZIP, but also see what the local channels are saying. WPVI Channel 6, is Accuweather, so they always follow their models. NBC10 seems to check out many models and trys to pick the ones that make sense. I think the WPVI accuweather people just say stuff and aren't really meteorologists in the same sense as NBC10 - Hurricane Schwartz.

anonymous21 said...

Thanks Mr. Foot i can go to bed now. you hard work is very much appriciated.

Mr. Foot said...

E.H... my numbers are "semi-preliminary" and based on GFS, NAM, current HPC QPF, throwback ocean effect which adds on another inch or two, and my anticipation we will see a retreat of the NAO tomorrow, allowing our storm to trend another 50 nautical miles north, hence the heavy snow band will move into Boston and everyone will hastily revise their numbers upward.

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks ma penna for the link. I originally hail from the Phila area and my parents are in Paoli/Frazer so I 4cast for them always.

Mr. Foot said...

Good morning everyone... oh thats's right, you're not there, you're asleep, because THERE'S NO SCHOOL!

Prediction: Advisory would be cancelled, replaced by a Winter Storm Warning by this morning.

Check.

Prediction: Snowfall amounts would be raised by NWS, TWC etc.

Check.

Prediction: Most Central Maryland Schools would be closed today.

Check.

What sayeth the fruit cup again?

Terpboy said...

Shut down the State (mostly), and nary a flake! (yet)

Bass was fantastic: "3-5, 3-5, 3-5, 3-5" then he turned the page of the copy, and said "That's just today, and additional 1-2 tonight.....

I love it.

God calls, Mr, Frog

Terpboy

Terpboy said...

I sure God does call....but what I meanty was GOOD calls...

NeedaSnowday said...

FINALLY! I thought Howard County (MD) would attempt to squeeze in a school day!

I have been singing your praises since the call in January Mr. Foot! Can't wait to see the snow total... and yep.. Mary Bass is now adjusting his numbers!

MA Penna said...

Unfortunately for some of us, we still have to work "nor rain, sleet, or snow" and I'm not a Postal Worker for the record. I'll be in the field so I should see the snow development first hand. At some point I will bail out and head home, mainly because people can't drive in snow. Maybe I'll get a chance to make fresh tracks again?

Mr.B said...

No snow here yet. I guess it is going to rap around later. At least I hope so. So maybe 7.5 inches Mr. Foot sounds great.

Mr.B said...

Snow is lightly falling and a dusting on the ground. Mr. Foot when will the heaviest snow start to fill in on the radar? Around 11am maybe?

Mr. Foot said...

Zak I'm going to revise your numbers and a few others back a bit because I think I see the storm moving even faster than we thought, but still some good throwback will make for a nice snow

Mr.B said...

So when is the radar going to fill in it is only flurries here with .25 of a inch on the ground. What time am I going to see the radar light up like christmas.

Chip said...

Mr. Foot, great call on school today! I'm a little concerned
about Friday... I think we may be
on as usual or delayed... but
then again, maybe we'll get a
Hereford Zone day! Hee hee hee...
Can't wait to start hearing about
K2 possibilities... enjoy the snow with your little one, and your day off! And as always, thanks for your work!

E.H. Boston said...

Sunny here in Boston...some are saying 3-5", others 4-6", and another 4-8". So we are going to get 4" or 5". A broom will be only necessary.

Looking a K2, QPF maps show it as being HUGE and ULTRA. In fact, it is in the prime position to give all of the big cities snow from DC to Boston...with a lot of it too. EASILY 1-2 feet with this storm as the way it looks right now. Let's take it one at a time right now.

Terpboy said...

0930-Fallston (Md)

It's H-E-E-E-R-E!

Winds = NE, temp = -1.5C (a REAL thermometer!)

Nice to get 4 extra hours of Z-Z-Z-'s

Cosgrove is talking about bombogensis in E. Canada, has upped the "hard-hit" area to 8-12...and has sent out a MWF teaser for a "K-3"? next week...

more bloggage!!

Terpboy

Mr. Foot said...

Zak it looks like the heavy snow band is slowly moving north. It will probably begin to fill in over by your area in another 2 hours.

Thanks Chip... it was nice to get a few hours extra sleep today. Sure did need it. Friday is iffy. All depends on accums. 5-6 inches argues for at least a delay, possibly closed due to the time it takes to clear lots.

K2 I will look at in detail and post about later. Has potential to be huge, but a huge rainstorm OR snowstorm. I think computer models will adjust based on new snowpack and this may affect next round of projections on K2

Frank said...

Seems by looking at he radar, that a lot of the precip. will barely reach the NYC area. It seems to be moving off the coast rather quickly, and by the time it makes it here not much will be left to reach the 4-8" that everyone is calling for. I hope that I am wrong and that it will fill in, but I guess time will tell.

3.14z said...

I took the nail out of the cup and covered it with that bag of yours, Foot. The fruit cup just doesn't seem to be as accurate over here at the point.