I am working on the FINAL WORD of your snowfall totals and storm track information. Please understand that sometime I am at the mercy of the loading speed of my home network. Sometimes blogger zips it right along, other times it crawls for reasons I do not know. So if it appears to be taking a while, I am not lounging on the coach watching Seinfeld or the Oscars. I am working on the update and will post it in pieces as it becomes available.
THE WHY OF THE FORECAST: I am confident of these numbers for a few simple reasons. The New York Times reported earlier today that meteorologists from HPC stated that initialization data for the North American Mesoscale Model (the NAM) was incorrect and thus the reason why the model has been trending so far west. I learned this from a statement made by Elliot Abrams at Accuweather, who reported the news story this evening. So what we have here is many many forecasters hedging their data and their predictions because they are hinging everything on the NAM because it has peformed so well this year. What they (and Paul Kocin) may not know at this late hour is that the DATA FOR THE NAM WAS CORRUPTED, AND HENCE THE CORRUPTED FORECAST FOR A WESTWARD TRACK. So yeah, the GFS may have scored big time with this storm, but the losers are the public as they have been getting bad information all day long. You notice this because someone earlier today in our comments link said "Wow, the forecast went from rain to a foot of snow in 12 hours!"
My other reasons are outlined on the Observation Map posted above. I think this storm is going to surprise, delight and stress us out in more ways than we can know right now. The major cities could still get 1 - 2 feet of snow out of this, and interior sections from Virginia to Maine could also see that much for different reasons. Overnight tonight, some weird things are going to start happening, and some areas might wake up to a Blizzard Watch with 12 -20" in their forecast. I will hunt down and find that article and post it for you here.
TIMING : This will be a heavy wet snow for all locations, so downed power lines and outages are likely along with strong winds blowing and drifting the snow around. Time of arrival will be, as Eric Clapton would say "After Midnight" from Washington to Baltimore, by sunrise in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, by noontime in New York, by sunset in Boston.
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND / DOWNEAST MAINE I am looking at this area more closely for the possibility of either a hurricane-like rainstorm or a major blizzard, depending on track of low and speed of upper level system.
THE HOW OF THE FORECAST
1. Storm Grade Totals for certain locations, but not all, as representative amounts will come out first thing tomorrow morning after I see "Baltimore County Closed" on the bottom of my TV screen. I may revise my final numbers up or down an inch or two before settling on straight line call.
2. THREE SCENARIOS...ONE WILL COME TRUE:
A) DAY AFTER TOMORROW, PART 2. The most crippling snowstorm the Northeast has ever known since the post-WW II era. How? The high over NY State, which was not forecasted to be there AT ALL by now, gets squeezed between the west-southwest retrograding Labrador Low, and the northeastward moving Gulf Low. The result is that cold subpolar air is directed out into the Atlantic, swings back around, runs into the Low. This squeeze effect wrings every last drop of water out of the sky and we have 12 to 36 inches in the major cities, with higher amounts in land. School is shut down an entire week from DC to Boston.
OR
B) WAS NEVER MEANT TO BE. Our catacyclismic storm never happens because the low level dry slot of air working into the storm from Texas as seen on satellite is forceful enough to shunt the storm too far out in the Atlantic. We see a repeat of March 2001, where forecasts for 12-36 inches in major cities never materialized, and instead they got 2-3 inches. Extreme coastal areas get blasted with a blizzard, and students are back in school Tuesday asking, "where did the big storm go?"
OR
C) RAINY NIGHTS AHEAD. Our big snowstorm turns into a big rainstorm and The high pressure being squeezed by the Labrador low has the opposite effect, and directs warm moist air in from the Gulf Stream ahead of the storm. The combined effect of the ESE winds plus the high pressure inflow channels the storm back toward the coast, and snow changes to rain with a total washout in the major cities.
SO WHICH ONE? AND HOW DO YOU KNOW?
Obviously if you've been following this site, you know we've been leaning on Option A for weeks now. My proof is...
1. Negative NAO. Go look for yourself. It is unbelievably low, and argues for a massive crippling storm and super cold 10-20 degrees below normal. Think January temps in March and you've just about got the idea.
2. Negative SOI. When the Southern Oscillation Index of air pressure changes in the South Pacific between Tahiti and Darwin, Austrailia crashes in early winter.. history shows that there is a massive storm on the east coast in February or March. The SOI is usually around -1 to -5. Last month? -30. That is phenomenally low, and argues for a big storm.
3. Constipation. That's right, the atmosphere has major blockage, and is simply constipated. The solution to that problem on a human scale, is... well, you know. Do something about it. On an atmospheric scale, when the Azores High near Africa/Spain noses it's way into Greenland, the Icelandic Low is shifted very far west, this in turn sends the Labrador Low over by the East Coast. All this means the atmosphere is constipated. The normal flow odf air currents is totally off kilter, and the only way to fix it is with a big storm, the equivalent of an enema, right? The combination of these factors directs the Northern jet stream toward the Mid-Atlantic. In contrast, all those hurricanes in Florida stirred up the water off the coast, making it colder than normal. That in turn created a large stable high pressure system, which ends up directing the subtropical jet northward over time. Get these two pixies together, throw in cold Canadian air, and you've got yourself....
A BIG KAHUNA, WHICH WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR WEEKS NOW, AND HERE IT IS.
Previous post from this afternoon is below:
- Han Solo, as he approached enemy ships in Star Wars
WILL THIS PICTURE BELOW REPEAT ITSELF? Or will we be writing a new chapter in storm history as March roars in with the Mother of all Lions and a Big Kahuna strapped to her back.
This photo was taken Sunday evening February 16, 2003 by the author, around 10 PM at Dundalk High School in Baltimore County, MD during the height of the 2003 Blizzard. While millions more are obviously impacted by storms than just the schools, many customers of this site are members of the school community.
It was the start of an incredible week that will live on the memories of many teachers, students and administrators for the significant ripple effect that storm had on the rest of the school year. Everyone up and down the East Coast had their plans altered in many ways as a result of this storm, spring break plans were canceled or changed, graduations moved, rescheduled, finals were affected, the school year extended. Summer work crews had one LESS week to prepare buildings for the 03-04 school year, it was a mess.
We might be looking at a repeat of that, or worse, a SURPASSING OF IT. I am working on as simplistic of an explanation as I can make it for what might turn out to be either:
A) The most crippling snowstorm the Northeast has ever known since the post-WW II era
OR
B) Scenario A plus the beginning of the worst 2 week period of winter we have seen since the post World War II era, replete with storm after storm to pretty much cancel spring right out of March altogether
OR
C) A big busted storm forecast this time that simply sets the stage for Scenario A to play itself out again in about 7-10 days.
I am very concerned we are going into a weather pattern that is going to make the disruptions of the February 2003 storm look like a holiday. So if you are a teacher, administrator, athletic director reading this... ask yourself: What adjustments to the schedule would need to be made if we (schools from DC to Boston) are out for an entire week starting tomorrow?
If you are a family with children reading this, ask yourself: Based on your experiences of the last blizzard, what small ot medium preparations should you make so this time around it is not so difficult or you are more ready for the storm. Note that I am not talking about buying milk and bread, we are beyond that now and into the realm of safety for your family.
Here's what the Foot Family will be doing if necessary come Monday morning:
- Marking the sump pump drain opening to our street with tall metal stakes in case there is heavy rain following the storm later in the month.
- Clearing gutters of leaves, debris. Our basement steps to the outside are covered so I dont't have to shovel 2 feet of heavy wet snow out of them, it took 2 hours last time.
- The snowblower is outside and covered. We have water frozen in bottles in the freezer in the event of power outages.
- Cell phones are fully charged, we also have a non-electric phone that will still work if there is no power.
- I know by now you think I am a little OCD over this, but believe me, I was too busy being excited about the last blizzard that I did not pay attention to the real needs of the home. Thus the whole week was spent playing catchup and fixup of the problems I could have prevented.
OK, you're not really concerned about work or home preparations, you just want to know how much snow? Well if you've been watching anything relating to weather the past 2 days, you know that every weather media outlet has been either been hedging all day long, or starting to lean towards the unfathomable...a crippling snowstorm in the I-95 major cities as well as most interior sections of all the Northeast states from North Carolina northward to Maine. The concern for this is evidenced by the National Weather Service having posted Winter Storm Watches from NC to Maine.
HOW MUCH SNOW?
I know you're going to scoff at this, but 12 to 36 inches is not impossible in the major cities if you consider how will have I arrived at that figure. It seems totally unrealistic but I have a scientific basis for both how that could occur AND how it could all bust and school is open for business Monday as usual. I will post those two scenarios for you before 5 PM. Then I am out for a few hours and will be able to answer your comments around 9:30 PM. I remind you this is my worst case outline, and NOT my FINAL WORD. That will have to wait until early tomorrow morning or late tonight. My EARLY WORD is at least 5 inches in the I-95 corridor, at least 8 inches north and west of the cities, but those numbers are going to change. Please don't holler and scream asking "HOW DID YOU COME UP WITH THOSE NUMBERS?" because I will explain it to you. It is scribbled on a piece of paper right now, but it will take time to transfer into coherent thought and words on the screen with pretty graphics to boot.
SCHOOL? No changes to the ideas posted in the previous post. I will present both options...(SNOWSTORM, NO STORM) but I think no school Monday is a done deal.
HOW MUCH SNOW AGAIN? I already told you, 5" minimum in major cities, could be up to 1-3 feet in worst case scenario. Don't go bonkers, just be prudent and prepared for it, so you can enjoy it.
HOW BAD WILL IT GET? Could be very strong winds, downing trees and power lines with the heavy snow on it, coastal and tidal flooding, beach erosion, reduced to limited visibility, etc. Basically what I forecasted about BIG KAHUNA 2, oh about a month ago. Check the archives back to January 31. OK, so I missed on the dates by a couple weeks, but at least it is fun to consider that we knew the atmospheric pattern would end up delivering the ultimate storm.
And here it comes, ready or not. I notice the Baltimore NWS has just issued a 'HEAVY SNOW WARNING" Hmmm, wonder where that came from, must be a typo. Gotta go check that out, and continue with family preparations. Forgive me for the scarcasm, it seeps out from time to time. My back still hopes this does not come true, guess I better add Ben-Gay to the shopping list.
If you are already a consistent reader, then I will include your hometown in the snowfall forecast lineup. If you would like a forecast for your town, request this in the comments with the name of your town. The snowfall period will be from midnight Sunday to midnight Tuesday (early Wed AM).
156 comments:
If you are just signing on, a HEAVY SNOW WARNING has been posted for the entire central Maryland region from DC to the PA line. 6 to 10 inches is just the beginning, we could end up with 1 to 3 feet and I'm not making this up... for anyone living EAST of I-81, or along I-95 from DC to Portland, ME.
Expect Philly, NYC and Boston will fall in line and are in the process of updating their sites.
Read my post carefully to understand the implications. I will have the meteorological analysis of this posted on line later today.
Could it bust? Of course, I will be posting an analysis of how that could happen too. I'll be back at 5 PM.
Should I have the wife go shopping today, before the ULTRA HYPE or tomorrow, when the tv forecasters may have already caught on to this catastrophic event in the making. Sends chills down my spine. Literally, SHOVELING!
I was watching the Weather Channel just a few moments ago and when they said we had a warning, I couldn't help but give a evil laugh. I hope it snows, but if not, I won't take it too awfully hard. It sounds like I'll have plenty of snow with which to build my igloo!
Everyone,
I have noticed that many of you seem to consider QPF "the word of reason." Please remember that it is probably the least reliable of all the model variables. The big storm is coming, and be prepared for anything from a few inches to a few feet (as Mr. Foot as already alluded to).
EH your area has the chance of seeing the worst. Could end up with another Blizzard Watch/Warning by this time tomorrow. Upper level low is going to close off and collapse the Polar Vortex right over New England, kinda like in Day After Tomorrow except not 100 feet of snow, maybe just 2. Could be a real bad time, if you want to shop now, would be a good idea but don't go nutzoid with it.
Hows it looking for myersville Mr. Foot. 10"+? I hope so. Is thunder snow possible with this storm here? The NAM show snow everywhere except on the coast and up to one foot.
Whether we get two inches or two feet, I'll just be happy that it snowed at all.
True, Steve.. QPF is a guide, but the maps HPC puts out are managed by human forecasters based on model data. That's why I put a little more credence in it because REAL people are generating the final product and not just letting the computer mail out the THIRD LATE NOTICE for a bill you paid weeks ago on time. You know how aggravating that is.
I said to my students 4 days before the 2003 Blizzard... we are either going to get 2 inches of rain, or 20 inches of snow, based on the moisture available.
This time leaning closer to the 20 inches.
What's up with the weather channel? On the local it said 3-5" of snow.
Hows it looking for myersville Mr. Foot. 10"+? Is thunder snow possible with this storm here? The NAM show snow everywhere except on the coast and up to one foot.
SACRED BOVINE Mr. FOOT!
Things went downhill (or uphill) fast, didn't they?
NOT that you didn't warn us a month ago, but you're right -- we are beyond the milk buying stage.
I had no power for six days in the last hurricane and it WASN'T fun. It was Little House on the Prairie. Went through dozens of candles and batteries ... and books.
Off to prepare.
Think everyone NOT in the Foot Community will be furious that they had no warning?
After it all comes down, should we send your previous posts to the local (national?) news stations?
Zak, your area might be on the western edge of the heavy snow, so 10 inches is a pretty good bet. Thundersnow might be confined to moisture rich areas right near the bay.
I will do a roundup of location snowfall amounts for everyone, so don't fret. I'll try to do a general map of my amounts if I can make it look right.
one thing for sure, if NWS has to cancel their Heavy Snow Warning, THAT would be real embarrassing. I would bet they aren't going to put that out there without clear rationale.
Thundersnow?
Ok cool, blizzard like conditions possible to with 1-2"'s per hour and 30-35 MPH wind gust?
Next post still looks to be coming out around 5pm. Right?
You are going to have quite an audience from Boston tuning in to see it. I told my entire family and all my friends about this site. The pressure is ON! At least some people up here will be ready for the 2 feet we are going to get. Everyone else thinks we are just getting 6-12" as the TV stations are saying. OH, WON'T THEY BE SURPRISED!
Thundersnow hannah is when it is snowing very heavy and that the atomosphere is unstabble and creates thunder. Just like a thunderstorm in summer thunder and heavy rain but with snow.
Also to that question Mr. Foot when, where and why do you think places will have there power go out. Downed weakened trees?
EH.. remember my numbers are preliminary until I post the storm grade amounts for certain locations. 6-12 could easily become 2 feet, or 6 inches.
Either way you will have wind that is going to feel and sound like a hurricane. Can't wait to see Dan Rather out at the dock on Boston Harbor holding onto a light pole as the rain/snow mixed blows horizontal past him.
NWS watch/warning map lighting up like a Christmas tree. Oh this is going to be fun.
Will you be putting up a forecast for central NC this evening? I'm seeing all kinds of differing forecasts. Thanks
Eddie
We just got issued a Winter Storm Warning. Looks like this thing is going to happen. Not if snow, but how much, or how many feet. Should be fun. Blogging and snowing for a few days.
My amount prediction for Malvern, PA to follow very soon. I'm going to the supermarket to pick up a few things, my prediction will depend on how many people are there.
Rain/snow mixed, you said? What are you talking about? You are starting to scare me.
WHAT IS UP WITH ACCUWEATHER'S GRAPHICS NOW? THEY ARE CALLING FOR A SNOW TO RAIN SITUATION FOR ALL OF THE BIG CITIES FROM DC TO BOSTON. HOW CAN THEY SAY THAT? IS THIS STORM DOING A 180 AT THE LAST SECOND...GETTING US READY FOR A MAJOR SNOW AND THEN THROW EGGS AT OUR FACES!!!
HOISTING UP THE RAIN FLAG...SOME OF ANDY'S SUPERSTITION. GET READY FOR SAILING EXPO 05 COME MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE SLOPFEST IS IN THE WORKS.
Don't worry right now about it E.H models can and will waffel.
Right Mr. B... Accuweather is having problems letting go of the NAM model solution because it has been dead on most of the winter. We are all guilty of model worship, I am no less hypocritical. We hammer the GFS and worship the NAM, now it is reverse. I believe they are making that call because of the retrogressin Labrador Low, which they think is going to curve the storm back in toward the coast. It has happened before, and I do see it happening, but not until it gets near Maine and the upper level low collapses over top.
From this point on, radar and satellite and local obs will be better indicators of the storm's evoulution than computer models, which can be 3-6 hours behind on rapid storm development.
A mini update before dinner, then I am out until 9 PM, Keep an eye on satellite and current obs for a clue on what's next.
Eddie I will do a 4cast for NC, but later tonight.
Stay tuned, check back around 10 PM.
Mr. Foot,
I am Julee's little sister in Pittsburgh and lament that your aren't here and predicting for US! The Weather Channel sent and online winter storm warning earlier today to last till noon tomorrow. NOW it says until 10 PM tonight! Does that mean we'll get almost NOTHING? It's only cloudy now.
Thanks!
The WC just said 6-10 inches for DC. What do you think about Harford County. paul Kocin says that he is still not sure about the storm track.
FRAZER, Pa BREAKING NEWS! THIS BLOG SITE IS SO HOT.. if all you weather heads just go outside tomorrow when it begins to snow and hold your fingers up to the air, the heat from them will melt it all.
Now for the Breaking News!
Clemens super market has just reported 35 little old ladies are fighting over the last roll of toilet paper, 27 mommies are fighting over 1 quart of milk, and Dave Roberts and Cicily Tyson were finishing off the last loaf of Wonderbread at the deli.
Rumor has it Paul Kocin is now headed out to sell 48 inch rulers to all those weatherheads north of the Mason Dixon Line.
Jim Cantori has grown hair but has lost his gloves and Hurricane Swartz has decided it will be better to stay inside his refrigerator for the entire snow event.
A PENNDOT truck went down RT 30 with three guys on the back with Morton Salt Shakers.
WOW this could be the big one!
UNCLE RICO - don't go to OK, come up here, lets snuggle by the fire and watch WC reruns of ANIMAL STORM STORIES, sip some fine wine, and talk about old times! We can log on together and watch the blog comments grow.
TGC is closed until JUNE .
YOD reporting!
Wow, this could be as good as that luscious surprise storm in late Jan, 2000. By the way Mr. Foot, if this does turn out to be a big one, it would be really neat to be able to download a 72-hr loop (or longer) of the storm's progress along the Gulf and up the E. Coast for some classroom discussion. Do you know of a web archive where such an animation might be housed? Thanks.
Just got home from food shopping, and strangely enough it wasn't crowded. And what changes,just since I've been gone. if I stay off the site to long, it's liable to be up to four feet! This is fun waiting for the storm to happen!Mr Foot I can't wait to read your reasoning for this.lm bucks county
Mr. Foot,
Do you think we could get up to 3 inches of RAIN (Anti Omen Reasons) out of this one. Do you think there could be a RAIN "blizzard" out of this here?
This is so much more exciting than the Oscars! Mr. Foot's predictions are so much better than the locals. I just LOVE to hear "BCPS closed!"
Going out for my last normal evening on snow-free streets this week. Be back at 9:00 PM, and will answer your comments then. Enjoy the hype, Andy.. go to Blockbuster and rent 42nd street, isn't that the one with Gene Kelly doing his "Singing in the Rain" bit?
Or maybe get kevin costner's "Waterworld"
Ch. 11 is calling for 6 to 10 and so is the Weather Channel. It's amazing that the storm is only 7 hours away or so and they still are uncertain of the track...let's see what the other two says.
Thanks Mr. B.
What ever happened to GOPI?
Mr. Foot,
Reading your latest post I guess I should start establishing plan "B" for my spring athletic teams which start practice on Tuesday. I wonder if BCPS will allow us to play baseball games indoors!
Quick round up for northeastern maryland.
ABC2: 6-10+
NBC4: 6+
NBC25: 6-12+
WUSATV9: 7-10
TWC: 7-11
Lets see how this changes by tonight.
Where has everyone gone? I feel so alone.
Im here Holms
I am here thinking the same thing.
Thank you my dear Watson. My hair has been completely lobbed off!
Waffel, waffel, and more waffeling by models do they ever make up their mind. The low is currently over north east FL.
Nearly a foot's worth!
Correct. 10+ bring it on. I still wounder about why and when the power may go out.
It was 2' 11"
Where did you here that?
My hair, silly. Sorry. Didn't mean to confuse anyone. Oops. I really am sorry.
I'm here...just watched Maryland lose by two to NC at home. Is there such a thing as a good loss?
It's amazing how the networks have gone from zilch to a foot in 24 hours.
WJZ STILL is calling for a changeover to rain...do they know something we don't...or since they pay achooweather, they have to say what they're told to say?????
Terpboy
LOL ok TWC just said over a foot possible in MD.
I REALLY AM!
Channel 13 has some issues I never watch that channel.
I have an epiphony, my dear Watson.
GFS THE CLOSEST BUT ETA DOING WELL ALSO. GOOD MOISTURE
INFLOW INTO THE SYS...STNS OVR N CTRL FLA REPORTING G37 IN SPOTS.
NO OTHER CHGS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 18Z ETA JUST A HAIR E OF 12Z
SOLN WITH SFC LOW. NOT ENOUGH OF A DIFF TO WARRANT CHGS TO CURR
FCST. ONLY SLIGHT CONCERN IS THAT OF ANY COASTAL SYSTEM. TRACK IS
EVERYTHING. (Concerning)
Watson, if we have a steel ball rolling down a ramp and off a table, could be use the d=Vot+1/2at^2 formula to figure out how far it would go because of the kinetic energy and all?
I believe so ... all u need to figure out is d of x not y.. gravity acts independantly!
Watson? Are you there, luv?
We tried that and it didn't work at the Physics Olympics. I was SO sad.
How else could it have been done, do you think?
I am puzzled as to why.
hannah what is your AIM were taking up too much bored space! plus this is for snow excitment not physics!! lol
There is a physics to snow though. The mass of the snowflake would determine how fast it would fall. Sorry, I am just being difficult. chalawalabeeb88. Hold on, I may have to sign in aol first.
there is wind resistance and it would be hard to determine the velocity. however if it was in a vaccume you could do it.
That we could. We are really nerdy nerds.
Didn't like, Galileo, show that the mass of an object has nothing to do with it's velocity in falling....??
correct
That is true. I think it was DaVinci, wasn't it? Anyway, someone said that two objects of different masses would fall at the exact same time.
My aim isn't working Watson!
Just watched TWC and Mr. Kocin is STILL uncertain, BUT, he said to tune in between 10 and 10:30 tonight when he will REALLY know what's going on and will reveal all ... OR you could have just been reading Mr. Foot for the past two months and already be in the know.
He was still waffling about the changeover to rain. Major wind warnings though. That's what might make it an "official" blizzard right?
Just had a nasty thought. What if I lose electricity and can't read all of the postings from the Foot's Fanatics?! ARGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!
YOD, you live in an *interesting* universe!
That is right. It would determine the force of the object. Not the velocity.
Submarine out of Navy Dry Dock and Lube, Water World rented, Snow tires burned, Neon Rain Sign blazing next to giant Rain Flag, Love a Rainy Night (Eddie Rabit), and (Phil Collins) "Let it Rain on ME" placed in CD player, umbrellas and emergency ponchos near door way, life raft inflated, and boat ready to sail down I-83 from Pennsyltucky to Baltimoron Country for employement and salary purposes. I can't wait for my wind driven RAIN! Unless of course Baltimore Courts decide to close, in which case yor humble government employee will be at home enjoying a RAIN storm! LET IT RAIN ON ME!
Well, I guess the MSA (Maryland School Assessment) that middle and elementary schools were slated to administer to students this week will STILL be called MSA because now it will stand for "Mid-Summer Assessment." I love the snow, but it is going to be a royal pain in the you-know-what to get all these testing days rescheduled. :(
-Alone in "The Zone"
(That's what I am on snow days since everyone else gets to stay home.)
Still waiting for our watch to turn into a warning like all of yours did. May never happen though. After listening to Paul Kocin, he said that the low after passing the Cape will move or retrograte westward in towards Boston and affect us with a HEAVY RAIN. 6" of snow could have already fallen, accompany that with the 8" on the ground. (14") Throw some rain on it and we are talking about some MAJOR URBAN FLOODING. Andy, I think I will need all your rain equiptment and you can take all of my snow stuff, looks like you're going to need it. Still holding onto hope, but I have seen this senario before and it looks like it is going to play out again. Hoping for PK to change his tune by the time 10:00-10:30 comes around...
I wish it was snowing really, really hard RIGHT NOW! Wouldn't that be awesome?
Terpboy,
there are games that are considered a good loss. This game was one of them. I feel that this proves to the NCAA that a team like Maryland can make an impact in the big dance. However, I can't fiqure this team out. Up & down all season. I DO NOT think that Gilchrest is a lottery NBA draft pick. Gary nedds to bring in a HUGE post man. Bowers is NOT the answer! If they go down to Blacksburg and get beat by Tech they do not deserve to go to the tourney. If they win they should be in with an RPI in the 30's Most likely an 8-9 seed. Time will tell as with this storm!.
Mr. Foot's forecast hopefully coming out soon.
Hopefully
paul kocin drew a line along i-95 in maryland and said someone along this line will get over a foot of snow
HOORAY!
Lets take guesses on when the update will happen my prediction is 9:45pm.
ocdonweather
I've been following Maryland basketball for 43 years, and I have to agree with you: this team is so frustrating! Yeah, they can't lose at Blacksburg, and no, Bowers is a good practice center...however Gary HAS had a goos record teaching big men to play their position.
Don't want to rush the season to a finish, but think of next year, when the entire (almost) team returns.
OK..enough about basketball...where's the snow? NWS has it here at 10 PM tonight! They have 47 minutes!
Terpboy
TWC Says 12+ locally.
Seven days built into the bcps calendar....
Snow, snow, snow, snow, snow Den na na na na na SNOW!
You're right! We have only used 2 days and it is almost March. We have 5 more. We need to use them! IT would be a shame to waste them. It is like having money burning a hole in your pocket. Bring it on!
E.H.,
Keep the hope alive. Remember, just 12 hours ago we were expecting mostly rain here. Fly a rain flag, build a boat, take the sub out of dry dock and you will get snow. Major Anti-Omen efforts need to be placed in motion immediately, but they may just be effective! Because of my paronia if "RAIN" falls in a frozen white form (2 inches worth) I may be removing the rain with a tea spoon. That's all I have left because of Anti-Omen efforts, and bon fires held in my township, which were fueled by SNOW related items (tires, shovels, storm flags, etc.) Mr. Foot smelled the burning rubber and saw a red glow off to his northwest!
O.K.,
Contemplated rescue mission for Mr. Foot cancelled, National guard called off, search dogs back in basement, and powderhounds' noses glued to computers awaiting for Mr. FOOT to KICK out the updated forecast trends!
To our younger weather enthusiasts... please try to keep your constant posting to a minimum, as I get an email each time you post. I welcome your interactions...but perhaps you could set up a chat room and link it to this site? Us older folk get tired of wading through many many emails.
E.H.I have heard all good things for Boston, so don,t fear. Our forecast has changed 1000 times. Keep the faith. lm bucks county
Sorry Mr. Foot :(
Fox 5 finally comes to realize. 12+ Power outages poss. and storng winds. Its about time.
I suspect E.H. and I are medium aged weather crazies. I'm pushing 30, but will slow down or insanity to minimize your spam. Sorry.
well anyone have anything to say?
Fox 45 says 6 to 10 100%. Yeah!!
What's the deal with accu still saying 2-4 in Balto? This is from their 10:00 update.
Paul Kocin is nothing but a tease! Two hours ago he said to wait til 10:30 when he'd have a LOT of new information about the storm.
10:31 and he's got nothing! Shrugged his shoulders and said things look about the same. Muttered something like "there is almost a probable likelihood" for a major winter storm for the northeast.
REALLY???!!!
Okay it's all up to YOU Mr. Foot!
Weather channel has 7-13 inches for York, Lancaster, and Susquehenna Valley region, for Monday and early Tuesday morning, with forecasts on local staions indicating possible 1-3 on top of this from snow showers into Wednesday.
Intellicast: 3-5 in Balto with another 1 possible overnight on Monday.
Nearly all the NY stations are calling for 6-12" of snow for central NJ, and N & W 10-15". One or two of the stations said N & W less because they are further away from the Low. But to sum it up, 6-12". Even though that is a nice snowfall, I don't see why all the weather outlets are making a big deal about it. We get 6-12" often enough. This isn't historical by far. If the snow falls as predicted, it won't even be a top 75 storm, just a moderate snowmaker. Wow, so we get 2 more inches of snow than we did on Thursday, big deal. Sorry, just hate the hype of the local NY stations.
Its time for YOD to go to bed now, with visions of little Uncle Rico's dancing in the OK sunshine. while we battle the Winter storm of the century.
Nighty Night all you weather heads!
Yod
Intellicast is NEVER right period! Trust me, I have followed them for a few years now.
Mr. Foot,
How long do you think we will be out of school in the Dundalk area? I am afraid that the snow falling outside will wash away all the information previously taught in the classroom. However, I am really looking forward to some down time.
I AM SORRY TOO!!!!!!!!!! I DIDN'T MEAN IT! HONEST, I DIDN'T!!!
ok channel 11 just illuded to maybe 6in!!! is he crazy or has somethin changed!
Update?
Is who crazy?
Poor Mr. Foot, being bombarded with all of these posts and whatnot. I really am sorry!
The local channel here says it's tracking more towards the east and moving very fast, so we won't get as much snow now. The forecast is 9-12 inches, it was 10-15. But what do they know. My prediction for Malvern, PA is 17 inches. Have a good evening. We're ready to go.
I don't mind big long posts, but a hundred little ones can get overwhelming.
Remember this when you wake up tomorrow morning...
The Blizzard of 2003 went from a ho hum no big deal storm to a monster in just 5-6 hours. I went to bed at 11:30 thinking eh, no biggie, and woke up 6:30 am to heavy snow and everyone calling for 1-2 feet.
I think the SAME THING is going to happen again.
BCPS folks.. do the math. 1-2 feet means we're out the entire week. 5-6 inches with refreezing means out Mon-Tue. 8-12 inches means we're out till Thursday.
Now working on finding that NYT article and some numbers for you, plus my ABC scenarios. May have to borrow Andy's candles and kero to burn the midnight oil here.
Any word on height of the storm flag?
I do enjoy the banter and fun discussions as do you all. Just try to minimize posting every 2 minutes for a solid hour, that's all.
Yes sir. I am sorry. Good night. Sleep well. Hopefully I will be talking with all of you tomorrow during the day with the white stuff plummeting down at unbelievable rates.
Sure thing Captain Foot. Can't wait to see the mid-night update. NBC25 had the best forecast all night they said well its currently dark outside and thats one thing we know for sure. Really I thought it was 1:00pm. Boy I was fooled. Latest HPC show 10"+.
That is FUNNY Zak... they really said that? Gosh this stuff is getting more hilarious by the minute.
DOES ANYONE HAVE A COPY OF THE SUNDAY NEW YORK TIMES.. WE HAVE FOUND THE CULPRIT TO OUR SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN BANDIT... THE NAM IS WRONG AND THE HPC ADMITTED IT IN THE NYT!!! FIND THAT PAPER.
Mr. Foot are u a member of the tri-state forum... im just wondering cuz ever since i posted ur link on there someone mentions how cool ur site is every day... u get ur own thread!!.. if your not you should join it
Ok Mr. Foot,
Plenty of fuel and supplies here, so will be more than happy to provide. Since this "RAIN" (ANTI-OMEN EFFORTS CONTINUE) storm looks huge, I will burn the many cubic tons of midnight oil I have stored from previous non-storms with you! If Courts are not closed I will likely be ill with the FLU(Cough, sneeze WEEZE etc...) in the morning. So let's ride into this puppy with guns blazing! I'm ready for a Blizzard watch or warning (cleary RAIN) for the Balto. Metro area North. I'm so close to the MD line I could jog to it anyway! So I will keep my fingers crossed for a possible 1-2 inch RAIN storm here! I would love to see a BLIZZARD (RAIN) advisory, worth a few days away from work!
Yea thats what they said kind of funny considering we might have a blizzard on our hands. I don't understand why they don't say blizzard like conditions tomorrow. With winds blowing 30-35MPH and snow falling 1-2" per hour it will feel like it. I think the news is just depressing. For example Top news tonight 6-12" of snow. Yes this is impressive but whe they come on after the snow story, and on to other news some one was shot tonight(Wow what a surpise.) Is less important then a snowstorm. Interesting.
Thanks again for ALL of your hard work and your eternal patience with us WeatherHeads.
I THOUGHT Paul Kocin looked sheepish! He is usually so intense during these storm situations that his "oh well" goofy grin and attitude were VERY curious.
Thanks for including my baby sister in Pittsburgh. I *hope* they only get ten inches -- her bassett hound Arnold is barely 18 inches high. Tough going for him!
Just heard Storming Norming say the snow is showing up in Virginia already!
Flakey and loving it ...
Wonder what Stormin' Norm said. Was he giddy again about beautiful sunshine and then said, oh we do have a storm system way down south.
John Collins said something pointless like a Heavy Snow Warning means a lot of snowy weather. Thanks John for making the NWS look totally stupid, I'm sure they appreciate making a warning sound like not a big deal.
Not that he can hear me, like yelling at the next car in traffic.
Do not underestimate the seriousness of this storm. There will be no changeover to sleet or rain in big cities...and the beltways/schuykill will be a total unmitigated DISASTER ZONE come evening rush hour Monday.
Norman says 7 - 10 in Frederick County and west, Baltimore 6 - 9. Says they don't know how it's going to track so Baltimore MIGHT get more snow if it moves farther into the Atlantic.
If the STORM moves farther into the Atlantic, not Baltimore. We'd just get WET if Baltimore moved farther into the Atlantic.
I've GOT to stop hanging around with 6th graders!
I was your student a while back, i think 2 years ago, and i wanted to help you out with a chat room.
If you wish to talk about the Winter Storm that is heading our way please use this chat room i designed.
http://www.geocities.com/footsforecast/
Just copy and paste into your browser.
Oh, and can't you get your Times article online?
Julee,
This storm will knock Baltimore into the ocean anyway. York county, PA will be beach front property. At least I have my RAIN boat READY!
Mr. Foot your update will be done by 1am right? I am starting to lose focus. Hopefully they don't send us to school tomorrow morning or I will be dead tired. Oh well ALL NIGHT TALE GATING PARTY BLOG. JK
Brandon that is awesome. You teens are amazing, which is why I enjoy teaching high school.
Julee, that is okay if Baltimore gets knocked into the ocean...we'll have 100 feet of snow! Andy will have to build a 200 foot storm flag pole so I can see it under all that.
I saw Stormin' It is time they start crying uncle and saying that "a lot more snow" means up to 2 feet, so the public is not totally blindsided by this.
Speaking of blind, my eyes are running out of steam. I am going to do a quick ABC scenario, and the final numbers will have to wait until tomorrow morning. After all, gotta get up early so I can pack my lunch and beat the traffic up Jackson Street hee hee hee.
Andy
So I need a snow shovel, flashlight batteries AND water wings?
Mr. Foot, I'm trying to track your article online.
I don't work in the library for nothing (I hope)!
All man no numbers. So sad. Well feel the same way man have a good night and hope blizzard watches are up.
Mr. Foot,
My bottle of Whiskey continues to diminish. Waiting for your post. With the boat constructed and rain on our doorstep, don't want to see another Exxon Valdez in the I-83 region. (WARNING: I do not condon or glorify alcoholism in any manner or fashion, should you be under age or of child bearing years, please refer to Surgeon General admonishments, as well as local regulations in your jurisdiction, concerning the sale, use, or importation of intoxicating spirits). JUST KIDDING! Have a good night all, this powderhound is going to bed.
Mr. Foot have u seen the lates infared satilite.. is there a glitch or has the storm just exploded?
This storm is huge. No glith just the storm. Looks impressive doesn't it? GN everyone.
Finally the winter you have so graciously talked about is coming to fruition. I arrived shortly after 5PM in OK City - the ruler measurements here show .001 inch of precipitation. The precip is the sweat from my shirt as I read the dramatic tale of SQUALL FROM THE SOUTH Goodness - all this talk - it's as if Mr. Foot was up for an Oscar. But don't worry - i'll keep you posted on the precip here in OK.
This is Uncle Rico.
Hey Uncle Rico - you've just been jealous this whole time that you can't enjoy the snow. I think you flew into town last week after the storm and now are leaving before the next one. Ummm the word is jealous, midwest. Stop crying about the weather on the East Coast. We like it here. And Mr. Foot does a darn good job of providing YOU, Uncle Rico, with a website that you seem to visit quite often. I haven't seen you post one bit of evidence for anything you've stated. Can't say that for Mr. Foot. So unless you want to drop some techy terms that make sense next time, I suggest you simma dan na.
Sounds like everyone is ready. When we wake up in the morning we should know for sure what's going to happen. In Phila area, most private schools are closed, some publics calling for early dismissals.
Once again the site for the chat room is
http://www.geocities.com/footsforecast/
*Copy and paste link into your browser*
I just put in a doppler radar onto the site, ill update it if i can stay awake long enough.
Anne Arundel Schools have message up that all events are running under normal conditions, today January 25th.
whoops!
Off to bed...sorry no exact numbers but that takes more brainpower than I have at the moment. Snow might be falling quite steadily by the time we wake up in DC-BAL-PHL.
Uncle Rico..glad your trip went well. I think the sequel to that book was WHITE SQUALL. Ba dum dum.
Any thoughts on the "Heavy Snow Warning" or is that just a typo from the NWS?
Mr. Foot, I have done fifteen online searches in the Sunday Times using different combos of HPC, NAM, meterologists, winter storm, and weather. Not seeing anything related to your story.
Hate to be thwarted, but can't figure out why the search is getting nothing.
Could Mr. Abrams be mistaken? Maybe it was a throwaway line in an article, but it STILL should show up.
Hate to let you down after all of your work for us.
Agonized.
Yes, Thank you for adding Pittsburgh to your total amounts! I'll let you know what happens throughout the day!
And have fun on your school vacation!
Well im so into this storm i cant sleep... so i have a few observations.. 1. there better not be any school cuz its 2:30 am, two the storm has slowed down.. that "fast moving low" is not crawling... dt has upped his amounts, although i dont knwo how reliable they are. im waiting for the fd to come out i know sometimes it's around 2:30 but not tonight. so i'll be off to bed soon. Just wanted you to know how things were lookin in the middle of the night.... btw personally i dont think there will be school and my forcast for dundalk is 9-14in (i can give a range im not bound by mr. foot's calling standard)
Don in Fredericksburg here. It is 3:37am. No precip yet. Dry roads and 34 degrees.
DT mapped at 1330 this day that we (central Md) are smack dab in the middle of 10-15".......wait, wait!
Wasn't this suppsed to be a rain event???
Terpboy
what the nws has lowered totals now saying rain/sleet will mix in! and what happened to the movment of this storm!!?
Yes, all schools closed. WJZ is the only that is still not sure. Ch. 2 and 11 are sticking with all snow. It's always WJZ...
Back to bed and hopefully when I wake up it'll look like a blizzard:)
Radar trend pretty good at 5:20 am. Snow should start within the hour.
::yawning:: still no snow? what should we expect? still hearing differing predictions from lowered snow totals to more rain?
Good morning everyone...looks like forecast is on track, a shift to the east is apparent despite paranoia of Baltimore's WJZ over warmer air working in will be short lived. Also very astute observation anony21, does appear it is slowing a bit. Onset of snow later now 7-10 am when it was going to be 4AM. Tight pressure gradient as storm cranks up should eliminate concerns over amounts lowering, as they may have to raise them again, so I am leaving mine intact.
Only problem is that with snow later in morning may allow sun to warm things a bit, negating an inch or two of accumulation. So for example while 10" may fall in Dundalk, only 8" will accumulate. Slower movement may add to totals, but warming may take away, so we are back to where we said we would be.
Very tired, will go back to bed now that I see the famous words
BALTIMORE COUNTY SCHOOLS CLOSED. Starting to become a regular occurence around here. Will have to relearn student names.
Will be up again in few hours to post numbers.
Don in Fredericksburg here. It is 530am. No precip yet. Dry roads and 33 degrees.
Check that. Flurries in Fred.!
Seem to be getting more cautious in the NYC area, and metioning sleet and rain mixing in again. I see the noaa lowered their totals to 4-8" for us down from 6-12. All he major stations are in with the 6-12. but one lwered that to 6-10. I have a bad feling of snow to mix here in CNJ. The temps seem to be rising a bit too. Up to 31 from 28 just 50 minutes ago! I'm keeping my fingers crossed, but am starting to get a bit worried.
Well, I awoke in Pittsburgh to rain....started a "serious" looking snow about 8, but I see on our radar map that sleet and then rain are behind the snow band. I will be VERY sad.
Nothing here in myersville. 26 degrees and winds 10-15MPH. Radar upsetting me because theres nothing there. Big hole like a donut. Come on snow. Hope it starts soon.
I am starting to get nervous here.. Yesterday i swore we were in for a real treat here in Perry HAll MD and i told all my friends we were getting a foot or more of snow. Now I wake up this monrnin and all the snow fall amounts are lowered and no snow is on the ground.. Is this going to be a total washout? at least no school today. Last year in the baltimore county public school system as next year i will be headed off to TOwson University which never closes-- so excited about that BLAH. I need to reep in all the benefits i can get with these snow storms.. Its my senior year! Also, i couldnt join the chat room. It couldnt work on my comp. a little disappointe. I love the weather!
In between Pennsylvania and New York is a little state (often maligned and frequently ignored) called New Jersey. I see no mention of my home state in your list of forecasted snowfall for each state. Sure, we could project based on PA and NY, and I know you're very busy, but we sure would feel honored to have our very own forecast! ;-)
Mr. Foot, woke up at 8am this morning, late for me, schools around here have early dismissals scheduled, or are closed (maily private schools). I'm in at work, hoping for a short day.
FRAZER, PA
reporting from my almost sold townhome
(if banks agree...I'm outta here)
its 45 deg here this morning, one daffodil is up already with what looks like a vision of Uncle RICO"S face on it. Did he really go to OK or did he stop here late last night wanting to steal my snowshovel and salt shaker?.
SHH don't tell anyone or else all you weatherheads will come here looking for spiritual enlightenment!
I am headed to TGC land to see if the Morton Salt Shaker truck stopped by yet. Was hoping all the papers on my desk have disintegrated!
if anyone (Uncle Rico) wants to meet me for lunch at the Paoli Acme today I'll buy!
but no milk or bread, its all gone!
Come on snow, I got a ton of bluegrass music to learn.
Channel 4 in NY has lowered totals from 6-12+ to 6-9 now. They did mention some sleet for Long Island, but not for where I am near Rutgers. But looking at that rain/snow line creeping up from Cape May doesn't seem good. The local radio guy is only calling for 3-6, maybe 4-8. They call this a big storm? That is what we had twice last week? I think a lot of the forecasters are worried about mixing again. I knew I should have brought the umbrella to work and not the snow scraper!
Post a Comment