Saturday, February 26, 2005

SUNSHINE AND SNOWFLAKES
Friday afternoon 2/25 update: Reveling in a 4, or 5, or 6 day weekend

and now, the moment you've been waiting for....

K2...AS BIG AS THE MOUNTAIN IS TALL



This is an actual picture of the famed K2 mountain in Pakistan, the SECOND tallest mountain in the world. Will this upcoming series of storms translate into the second largest snowfall ever? Hard to tell, but not impossible. What we do know is that a very significant and possibly historic situation will be setting up over the eastern third of the country starting Sunday night and lasting into....a while, perhaps a week. A more detailed analysis is coming over the next 24 hours, but here is the rough guide for now:

1. A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO AFFECT MOST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WITH HEAVY SNOW, HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING from Sunday night to Tuesday.

2. NAO LOST IN A BLACK HOLE MEANS SOUTHEAST REORGANIZATION OF THE POLAR VORTEX over Ohio and Pennsylvania for the period Tuesday-Friday. This will result in intensely cold air of 10-20 degrees below normal for most of the Northeast from South Carolina up the coast.

3. BIG KAHUNA 3 MIGHT BE THE ULTIMATE GRAND FINALE OF THE WINTER WITH ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL for the major east coast cities from Richmond, VA to Portland, ME in the Friday-Monday period of late next week.

K2 ANALYSIS PART 1...SUNDAY NIGHT
I will post a series of maps to show the differences between the major models battling it out for supremacy over the life cycle of this storm. My comparison is between NOAA's GFS and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.. the ECMWF or the European. Please feel free to post your questions and reactions to this analysis. There will be two more parts in the next 12 hours... Part 2 is the Monday analysis, Part 3 is the Tuesday analysis.


LIKELY TO HAPPEN

- A large storm will move up and/or along the Eastern Seaboard from the Gulf Coast. Precipitation is likely to start in areas from North Carolina on northward as snow on Sunday night or Monday morning.


- Every meteorologist on the East Coast, real or imagined, will find it hard to pick one solution or the other given the implications of a forecast for heavy rain that turns out as snow, or vice versa. Weather outlets will hedge and alter their forecast and timing of the storm's onset until the moment it begins.

- A second system moving in from the Great Lakes will meet up with the primary Gulf Low, and energize it significantly, which is when the snowstorm/blizzard aspect of the event will get underway. Snowfall in the area where that occurs will likely be in excess of 12 inches and some locations will exceed 2 feet.

NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN

- Predictions for 1-2 feet of snow in the major I-95 cities are not likely to be issued until the event is underway, such as was the case with the February 2003 Blizzard. I am not saying this much snow is going to fall, I am saying that enough moisture will be present in the atmosphere, that given the right conditions and timing, this much snow is THEORETICAL in the major cities.

- Computer models all resolving on one clear-cut solution early on, such as 24 hours before the event. Already major differences exists as depicted in the graphics above, with the GFS having mostly a rainstorm along I-95 and heavy snow in the interior, whereas the European would be a repeat of the January 1996 or 2005 storm.

- School closing on Monday, as the forecast for that day will vary wildly from one agency to another, making the public very uneasy and confused about the evolution of the storm in general.

BEFORE I POST THE NEXT UPDATE, CAN YOU PICK OUT THE SUBTLE OR GLARING DIFFERENCES IN THE GRAPHICS ABOVE? What is your reaction to this given the track record of the GFS and European on storms this winter? I look forward to your responses as we inject a little politics into the forecast.

113 comments:

E.H. Boston said...

Let's enjoy this snow because the next snow could be a no show. Looking over the latest models and they have the low hugging the coast where you are and west of me. You guys will probably do a snow to rain to snow thing and we will get mostly rain and a couple of sloppy inches on the backside. Mr. Foot tell me what you think, did we just witness our last snowstorms?

PS...did I guarentee a 4"+ snowstorm for you guys or what...who da weatherman!!!

Mr. Foot said...

Congrats EH and Boston area, glad to see you got into the game with us. I should have stuck to my guns with 8-12 huh old buddy? 6/8 is not too bad. 5/4 for Woburn not too shabby. Amazing how the snowshield from almost every storm this winter trended farther north then all computer models.

As for K2, I do see the concerns, especially if the high continues sliding east as TWC depicts. NAO has 2-3 days to show us where it went, -5? -6? unknown it was so low. If NAO trends back to -3 or so, that could mean storm comes north and west, hugging coast, giving I-95 snow to rain, but interior sections... a whopper. Working on that situation and will post an update by lunchtime.

I am following mostly the Euro on this one as HPC has admitted the GFS is, in their words, "unusuable" for data initialization problems with this strorm. Shhh, don't tell the higherups at Dept of Commerce you said that.
Dundalk checks in with 5.5
Paoli, PA 6 Exton, PA 4

What sayeth the fruit cup again, Mr. Peiser?

Terpboy said...

Below are the predictions of a number of weather sources at 0600 hours on Wednesday. I will grade them based ENTIRELY on their predictions 24(+) hours out. Some were way off, and corrected later, some were right on, and "corrected" themselves out of the picture. I've always wanted to take an objective look at the forecasting, and this forum has provided me with the incentive to do so.

Thanks for enduring this old fuddy-duddy.

Remember, this are 24 hour out predictions!

Cosgrove = 4-8".....A

WxRisk = 1st guess 2-5".....A

TWC = "snow"........D- (duh, give me a number!)

Accu = "snowy" Th- 1-3", Fri- zip.....D

NOAA = WSWatch, possible 5+".....A

Ch 11 = snow...most in So Md.....C, for second statement

Ch 12 = snow in afternoon, 2-4", maybe more.....C+

Ch 13 = some snow.....C- (because a friend told me he DID say 2-4")

Mr. F = VERY STRONG POSSIBILITY OF NO SCHOOL BOTH THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF VIRGINIA and DC METRO AREAS. .......A+

MARYLAND: Overall preliminary is 4 to 8 inches......A
For example, in the Dundalk area, I am leaning on 5" but may have to raise that.......A- (you hedged, but not bad, not bad at all!)
The trend will be more snow the farther south you live, so 6-8 inches across southern and central Maryland, 4-6 inches in Baltimore Metro, 2-4 near PA border. ...A .

I guess we all know where to go for our forecasts!

Yeah, I'm a tough grader...ask my students!

If you have any complaints about my scoring procedures, please carve them on the back of a Grand Piano, and leave it laying against the SE lightpole at Rt 1 and 152 with two $100 bills attached, and I'll get back to you...

Seriously, your opinions are welcome!

Part II

Monday/Tuesday-

Cosgrove = "probable" winter event to affect Mid-Atlantic.

WxRisk = storm tracks inland, I-95 to rain.

Later!

Terpboy

Julee said...

This is from my comment on the *Friday* comment board (duh). Didn't know if you would see it.


Oh, and one of AOL's headlines this morning? "Winter's Worst May Yet Come" -- about TWO storms on their way to the east coast. Know anything about that?? Heh heh.

NeedaSnowday said...

Mr. Foot.. spring sports begin on March 1st... what can we expect?

Terpboy said...

Julee-

First: tune in to Mr. Foot..he da man..

Second: To get some fairly technical stuff- (if you don't already)

Windsong Weather-
http://www.wxrisk.com/
MWF...updates once of some a week...pretty good maps

Larry Cosgrove (to subscribe for free)
WXAMERICA@aol.com
MWF...updates daily through massive email...can get very technical...if you like.

Habe fun!

Terpboy

Terpboy said...

Windsong upates ONCE OR SO a week...oops!

Terpboy said...

HAVE, HAVE fun
I GOTTA learn how to read....

E.H. Boston said...

What else is new. Seems like only the GFS is calling for the storm to take a western route. What a surprise! European is taking a more southern route, which would mean predominatly snow for all the big cities.

I have come up with a conspiracy theory. Get this, if the GFS was the only model we followed, the most snow we'd get in a season is 2". GFS ALWAYS backs off on a storm, 3-5 days out...you may ask why.

WHY?
Well what major cities are along the east coast...DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston. When you say those cities, what comes to mind? TOURISM...MONEY...SPENDING...US ECONOMY!!! If the NWS followed the JMA or Euro. they would likely scare away hundreds of thousands, if not millions of tourists that would spend MONEY in these cities.

Therefore, what should the US gov't do...make a very conservative computer model and make the NWS follow it blindly at times. Remember the post XMAS "surprise snowstorm" with 6" in SE VA and 18" on the Cape and 10" in Boston...well if that had been forecasted...think of all the XMAS visitors that would have decided it was best if they don't fly to Boston or where ever. The airline industry would have been hit hard.

So the reason GFS ALWAYS backs away from giving the I-95 corridor a good chance to get ready for a storm is MONEY. Like the old saying goes..."Money, money, money makes the world go round." This is my conspiracy theory and you can chose to believe it or not...for all I know, the GFS could be right with bringing the storm to the west. However, I don't think following this model blindly is the right thing to do.

So...just checked the European and it is projecting a major snowstorm from DC to Boston and Maine. What is the JMA saying...

THIS IS E.H. BOSTON.

E.H. Boston said...

PS- my sister used a BROKEN RULER with 1" missing from the bottom, she said. Measured it again and got 4" on the dot.

REVISED WOBURN SNOWFALL: 4"

Looks like another A.....

Mr. Foot said...

I know many might find your theory crazy, but it has merit. I asked the same question to a seasoned teacher friend of mine at my school. In fact, she is not really into the weather, but offered me the same explanation about the Valentine's Day storm when we were discussing why the forecast seems to be off at times. The SAME explanation.. tourism, politics, money, not science is the reason why these things happen from time to time. Anyone remember the Lindsey Storm in New York 1966? Or how about the Daley Storm in Chicago? Or how about the John Street Storm in Philly 1996. In all cases govt officials made decisions about snow removal for certain parts of their city based on POLITICS not safety or science.
AMS is the independent Amer Meteorological Society, who certifies all Mets in the U.S. with a license, to "practice" weather. Their mag, Weatherwise, did a report in October about how European and Canadian models usually outperform US ones on big storms. Would NOAA comission such a study? Nada.

Just more proof there's politics in everything. Even weather.

I am going to inaugurate the snowblower...2 month and 4 days AFTER winter began. Then up to check on greenhouse at school. Be back with a K2 analysis around 2 PM. Keep an eye on the high predicted for upstate NY on Monday, that will tell the tale of K2. Accuweather has a saying I learned a while ago.. "Predict the High, you predict the storm."

Mr. Foot said...

Thank you very much terpboy for that summary of observations. You doing that saves me a LOT of time hunting around for obs, which is why I posted the snowfall links from NWS so we could check easier.
Thanks EH for the Woburn update. Funny, broken ruler. Keep that thing away from the GFS or we'll have another broken forecast.

E.H. Boston said...

You would think she'd notice an inch missing....

I don't know...

Mr. Foot said...

What is MWF? Is that a weather forecast service? Can't find it on the web

Hannah said...

Mr. Peiser?! You are here? You may not remember me, but hello just the same.
I woke up this morning around 5:30 as I usually do and turned on the radio to find that we have a four day weekend! I am going to go outside and enjoy it while it lasts just in case this other storm misses us. What a great turn of evens!

mommyof3 said...

Harpers Ferry ended up with a little over 5 inches.

Julee said...

YEEOWWWWWWWWWWW!
I am reminded of Marty's pathetic little weather graphics for Mon/Tues. which consisted of two snowflakes on Monday and two little raindrops on Tuesday. As though they could hardly muster up the energy to even PUT graphics on those days!
I hate to admit this, but I MIGHT be making a grocery run on Saturday before the masses get wind of it.
When do you think the media will be making any kind of viable forecast?
Wow.

Hannah said...

AOL is saying that we will have snow Monday through Wednesday. And we thought that winter was over. This is great!

Frank said...

6.3" by Rutgers in NJ. Right on with the 6" call! A+

Julee said...

Oh and THANKS Terpboy!
Actually I ONLY pay attention to Mr. Foot. I hear and read other forecasts but come to HIM for fact checking and the Real Deal.
Isn't he kind to stay in teaching when he could become, like, the Best Weatherman EVER?
The Baltimore County Board of Education should read Mr. Foot, but they'd get blisters on their eyes.

Hannah said...

He IS the Best Weatherman EVER!!!

Julee said...

Hannah -- you are RIGHT!
I was thinking more of worldwide fame -- but he's almost there anyway!

Just saw Martin Bass give an inkling of a possible MAJOR storm so it's "in the wind." Might have to go to the store today!

Hannah said...

My mum has already gone to the store!!!
Yes, Julee, he is so very, very close to worldwide fame. I am sure if he mearly extended his arm, he would touch it.

Mr. Foot said...

You gals are getting too excited. If we have any more of these excessively positive praises, I may have to pull the comments again, and make you hand write your responses and mail them to me.

Sike.

Just remember all those nice things you said when we get two inches of rain in Baltimore and two feet of snow in Altoona, PA. K2 will be big in the sense that it could be big snow, big rain or big on both.

I do recall a few viers back about 2 weeks ago saying, "winter's over, better luck next year."

Terpboy said...

Hi...been out

Mr. F, MWF as I learned it is "Midrange Weather Forecast", as in "ECMWF"

But don't feel bad if you need to tell me I goofed it up.

Terpboy

E.H. Boston said...

TWC is now calling for ALL SNOW here Mon/Tue. all the time. Could this be a sign of a snowier solution to come?

Is the storm going to ultimately take a more southern route and give the big cities the 1-2' of snow...

STAY TUNED....

E.H. Boston said...

NWS is calling for a chance of SNOW all the way from Monday night until 9PM on Wednesday night!!!

If this stays all snow 2' looks likely...of a heavy wet snowfall. Do I smell part two of winter break vacation up here in Mass.

More to come....

E.H. Boston said...

VERIFIED...

Mr. Foot, check the SPOTTER REPORTS, Woburn came in with 4" even...A+

You did pretty good at predicting this storm. Keep up the good work.

Mr.B said...

5.5 inches in myersville. flurries where still falling this morning.

Julee said...

Mr. Foot,
Two inches of rain, two feet of snow -- whatever. The point is that YOU predicted this big ... thing WEEKS ago!!!! AND you even got the correct week!
Who, indeed, IS the man?

Hannah said...

I am well aware that rain or anything is possible. Either way, you are a great weatherman. It isn't like you are making promises that are likely to be broken. No one can truly predict the future. Just because you may be wrong doesn't mean you will be the object of ridicule!

E.H. Boston said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Mr.B said...

e.h what about around myersville, md. 6"+?

Drew said...

Jumping ahead to K3.
Is my flight from Phila. on Saturday March 5th at 8:00am in jeopardy being cancelled? :-(

Chip said...

Achoo-Weather now is saying
that the storm is going to be more inland
and that we will get a mix in the Balt/DC area.
I'll be interested to see what you
have to say, Mr. Foot.
A mix might get us off of school
for one day, but a foot of snow
would be 2 or 3 days... hee hee hee...

E.H. Boston said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Mr. Foot said...

Model waffling has begun. Remember Achoo's graphic earlier this week... Scenario 1 or 2? They leaned away from Scenario 1 (snowstorm) then had to back-pedal right to it. This storm will be more of a gut call than anything else. I don't believe the models will be much help this time around.

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. B:
As Mr. Foot said, its up in the air.

E.H. Boston said...

I deleted my accumulation forecast because I believe it will just confuse everyone and it probably ain't right. So, there you go, okay. Thanks. Praying for 24"!!!

E.H. Boston said...

European model has got that high pressure system in the prime spot for a major I-95 special. GFS, where is the high?

Who am I going with?
Of course the Euro. with its excellent record this winter. By Sunday night/Monday morning we will see whom is correct, won't we?

E.H. Boston said...

Special Weather Statements are going up from DC to NYC...look out, they are starting to get (conservatively) nervous.

dum, dum, dum!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I don't have a snowy feeling about this one. So I will not raise the storm flag. My rain flag is raised, snow blower engine converted for marine use, and boat being built as we speak! Get ready for slopfest 05. I will sail into work Monday with my snow blower engine powered dream machine cranking. I'll have to get a good anchor though, as the wind may blow it away when I dock at the office. Hope I don't get a docking ticket downtown!

Drew said...

GFS track record has not been very good as most of us know. The one strange thing is that it is picking up this system along with the other models when in the past it had major problems seeing a storm with consistency.
The Euro has had a much better track record.
I have a hard time seeing this system getting pulled in that far west.
Will new snowpack have any influence?
This seems to be a system that can really make a forecaster look bad if one locks in to soon.

Drew said...

Latest NAM looks very wet not white

Mr. Foot said...

If you want the inside scoop on this, here's is the drill:

1. First, check the HPC discussions for short and extended range.

2. Then review the HPC Heavy Snow Discussion

3. Then read the discussion from your local NWS to see if they are lining up with HPC guidance or not.

HPC seems to be in a love/hate relationship with GFS, as one or two model runs, they accept it, then they reject and go with Euro, later, rinse, repeat. Not much time to waffle, or egg will be the main course... in our face that is.

I think the Holy Grail is going to the the influence of the eastward low and upper level system. This piece of energy kicking east is going to have some impact on the stork track, nudging it out to sea 50-100 miles. If that happens, we could be looking a historic event for I-95 to rival Feb 2003, Feb 1983. Keep in mind ALL YOUR weather.com / accuwx 15 day forcasts are automatically pegged to the GFS, so don't be surprised to see it change about every 3-6 hours. There is no human input to this, so save yourself the frustration now by ignoring it and looking carefully at observations.

E.H. Boston said...

HIGH STAKES/LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...gotta love it. Good luck, Mr. Foot.

Terpboy said...

Why does the Euro have the rain/snow line so far North with the East Coast cold air, and the Canadian high???

I'm not as slick with this stuff as some of you veterns, but it has been my impression the the GFS is usually found wanting with East Coast storms, and the ECMWF is the ensemble of choice.

Either way...this looks likethings are gonna get interesting in about 60 hours. NOAA has the Low parked over Mrytle Beach at 0700 local.

Terpboy

Terpboy said...

Why does the Euro have the rain/snow line so far North with the East Coast cold air, and the Canadian high???

I'm not as slick with this stuff as some of you veterns, but it has been my impression the the GFS is usually found wanting with East Coast storms, and the ECMWF is the ensemble of choice.

Either way...this looks likethings are gonna get interesting in about 60 hours. NOAA has the Low parked over Mrytle Beach at 0700 local.

Terpboy

Terpboy said...

I really didn't think my comments were so important that I had to post them twice....my computer burped.

Sorry

Mr. Foot said...

Read this and see if you can decipher the true meaning, or at least pick out memorable, noteworthy or headline-eligible phrases, there are a bunch of juicy ones.

FROM NCEP Extended Forecast Discussion 1215 PM Fri

THE 12Z UKMET...MM5...CAN GLOB...AND NOGAPS ALL SUPPORT THE MORE ELY PRELIM PROGS WITH THE ERN CONUS SYS THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDR OVER THE MORE WLY GFS/NAM SOLNS. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT COLDER OVER THE MID ATL ON DAY 3/MON...SUPPORTING A GREATER
POSSIBILITY FOR SN RATHER THAN RA OVER MORE OF THE E...AND HAS
ALSO TRENDED SLOWER LIFTING THE SFC LOW AND THE H5 SYS NWD THRU
THE MID ATL...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO HANG ONTO A MORE WLY SOLN THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DO NOT TRUST THE NCEP MODELS HERE.
STUCK WITH THE PRELIMINARY PROGS HERE AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS THINKING ELSEWHERE.

If you can read between the lines here, then you know what's going on. NCEP is waking up to the fact that GFS is OTL with the rain along the coast idea.

Prepare for battle with Old Man Winter. Shields up, red alert, put your milk in the freezer now in case power goes out. (Just kidding)

I expect TV folk will wait another day before coming out with guns blazing. But I am concerned about a repeat of March 2001 where catacylismic (sp?) predictions of 24-36" never materialized in I-95. Though that storm was not coming from the Gulf, it was coming from Great Lakes.

A sense of forboding falls across the area as the sun dips below the sky...

Mr. Foot said...

Terpboy.. I'm glad you picked up on that. Was hoping someone other than me would notice how odd and out of order that is.. the 540 line was up north, yet, the surface pressure arrangement clearly indicates cold air damming down east side of Appalachians. Notice how close together the eastern and northern highs are on the European. I wonder if that is a signal we will see the beginning of a Banana high, where the two highs link providing fresh cold air right before the storm. It's not impossible given fresh snowpack.

Andy... snowmobiles also fair well as jet skis, maybe just attach a plow on the front, and you are ready for anything.

Drew said...

Could the energy from west really have that much influence if the coastal storm becomes as strong as show on the models?
One thing for sure is vey cold nights with new snowpack till the storm arrives.

Mr.B said...

Lets get ready to Rumbleeeeeeeeeeee! I hope. Lets set history. As we know are storms have been moving father north and east then expected so lets see how this plays out. Heres my little model.

+ L < forecasted
+ L < actual

The + is central maryland and the L of course is the low. Does this look familiar to our storms this year?

Mr. Foot said...

Rumblings starting on TWC about "some computer models are suggesting a more easterly track, that could mean serious accumulation along the coast." Now compare that with the most recent QPF for the period 8PM Sun to 8PM Tue. It was updated at 2000Z which was 3 PM. Then you saw lots of SPS come out at 320-330 PM.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

The Day 4-5 QPF is a monsta as EH would say...but is last night's info.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e00p48iwbg_fill.gif

E.H. Boston said...

Read the HPC discussions and they are favoring HEAVY SNOW from DC to Boston. HPC Heavy Snow Discussion says that the storm will take more of an offshore route. EQUALS SNOW.

With this, how can Accuweather.com be favoring an INLAND route at this time. Contraversy, contraversy.

Computer Models for Big Snowstorm:
UKMET...ECMWF...MM5...CMC...AND NOGAPS

Against Big I-95 Snowstorm:
NAM...GFS
Is accuweather following these two American models?

So the final score is:
Big Snow 6
Big Rain 2

From here, you be the judge.

Mr. Foot said...

EH I think Acchoo's graphics were posted BEFORE HPC did their thing with the Heavy Snow Disc. Tonight we'll see them come around the other way. Probably when all is said and done, it'll end up being a coastal after all, and interior gets jipped when they thought they were gonna get slammed. So do I go to school now and retrieve the floor space heater from the greenhouse today, so I have it for the extra long weekend (into Tue) or do I hope that I can snag it on Monday before storm hits? Then again, if there is no heater running in the greenhouse, with 1-2 feet of snow on top, will it become an icebox? Decisions, decisions.

Drew... yes upper level systems are the conductor of the orchestra. Storms live or die by their command. That system represents the northern stream diving south as shown on Achoo graphics. Link that baby up and we have the Mother of all storms.

E.H. Boston said...

I say get the heater for yourself. 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow will knock out power and it will be of no use to the greenhouse. May take a week after the storm to get it. So, go get tomorrow. I love these kind of snow related decisions. PS How confident are you with the heavy snow prediction.

Tv guys here are ready for anything to change. It is almost like they are waiting for the GFS to change saying sizeable snow, but snow to rain to snow. They will turn to a snow solution soon if you and the HPC are correct.

Ova and out.

E.H. Boston said...

You were right. The HPC Guidance was published at 4:08pm. Accuweather was before that. Good thinking.

Mr. Foot said...

NYC NWS forecast discussion marks out the map over next 48 hours pretty well. Read this for good insight. Also notice HPC discussion came out at 3PM, NYC disc at 430PM. I think eventually someone will have to be the heavy and get all the offices in line with a consistent line on this storm, given the short notice.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/data/txtprods/OKX/AFDOKX

ask yourself, would it not be better to err on side of danger than lack of it? Of course, I'm a dyed in the white wool powderhound, so I lean to the more dangerous, with an eye on safety. The public will be perturbed if this forecast goes from all rain to 2 feet of snow in 1 day. Little time to prepare, given it is weekend and no one is paying attention.

linda said...

Whatever it turns out to be(hoping for snow) it certainly is going to be big. Nobody seems to know what actually will happen. The specialweather statements cover thierselves for every scenario. This should be very interesting. the next couple days should be busy.Get your heater Mr.Foot. lm

linda said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
E.H. Boston said...

Read this...

EAST...
A COASTAL CYCLONE IS XPCTD TO DVLP OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE
ON A COASTAL TRACK UP THE COASTLINE CLIPPING SERN NEW ENGLAND. A
BLOCKING SFC WEDGE OF COLD AIR SHUD BE REINFORCED BY PCPN CAUSED
BY THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC CYC AND THE UPR ENERGY THAT LED TO
ITS FORMATION...KEEPING THE LOW TRACK MAINLY OFFSHORE. THE 00Z GFS
WAS UNUSABLE HERE WITH ITS EXTRA LOW DUE TO GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK
EARLY IN THE PD...THUS KEPT W/THE IDEAS OF THE ECMWF...CAN
GLOB...AND NOGAPS WHICH WAS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. HEAVY SNOW WILL
BE PSBL WITH THE SYS IN THE MID ATL AND NORTHEAST.

Hokiehop said...

You go EH! Keep that baby off the coast.

Terpboy said...

Mr. F

Don't know if you're interested, but DT has an interesting, if verbose, analysis of the next several days at WxRisk.

Terpboy

Chip said...

Thanks for all for stimulating discussion,
especially since a lot of it is relating
to what I was wondering about: coastal vs. inland,
i.e., rain vs. snow.

And Mr. Foot, you flatter me
by picking up on my Achoo bit
and repeating... I feel like one of
Johnny Carson's writers or something...

Keep the discussion and investigation going, all!
And make that shopping list --
Let's see, toilet paper, check, milk, check,
beer, check, frozen pizzas, check...

E.H. Boston said...

TWC meteorologists are hinting at a possible "dousy" as said by Carl Parker of TWC for the big cities Mon/Tuesday. Get your seat belts strapped, cause its gonna be a WILD RIDE!

Mr. Foot said...

Achoo, I think it is a funny term! Don't forget chips, salsa (esp. vidalia onion salsa) and shrimp.

Saturday should be a revealing day for the forecasters. With only 24 hours to go by the Sat evening news, I think NWS will be forced to issue a Winter Storm Watch due to the uncertainty.

I'll take a look at DT's analysis.
I was also thinking, the super black hole Neg NAO argues for offshore movement, as this sends the upper level block further and further into SE Canada, which directs the northern stream around it. And the system coming down from the lakes with a cold front also argues for an eastward kick. Plus the upper level winds are SW to NE, so there's three elements in favor of coastal development. What it seems like we're seeing is that since NOAA preaches the GFS/NAM so much, everyone is having a hard time divorcing themselves from it. Read the NWS discussions, it's obvious even in the NYC disc how they can't accept the other solutions until at least one of the US models begins to agree? So would it be too much of a risk to accept those models? Does that sound like politics to you? Can't wait to hear/watch/read the model mayhem on the TV next 48 hours.

ocdonweather said...

I'm very new to the weather lingo. What is HPC?

E.H. Boston said...

I've got a good feeling about this one.

Baltimore schools will be closed all next week. Enjoy.

Andy...you'll get a day or two off.

Boston schools will be CLOSED Tue-Fri.

All Mid Atlantic Schools will be CLOSED at least 1 or 2 days next week. ENJOY THE SNOW.

Terpboy said...

Wait...wait!

We have the possibility of a major winter event coming AFTER a weekend???
Wow!
No Mondo Basso to giggle at??

How's this prediction: Sunday evening it looks like we're going to get hammerified (ham MER if fied)...my own weather term, and the 3 local networks bring in the "A"-team weather wizards!

So we get Stormin' and Bassomatic instead of the Jayvee!

Terpboy

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I'm getting a harpoon, building my boat and hooking the storm. I'll drag it up the coast in a more favorable snow track and we can then all rest assure that we will have our snowstorm. NEVERTHELESS, I think the substantial widespread snowcover, coupled with the time of the year we are in (CALM LATE FEB. AS MARTY BASS THINKS), wimpy winter so far for the mid atlantic strongly favor a nice snow storm. My paranoia forbids me from raising the snow storm flag, but since I have raised the rain flag I noticed that the Forecasting think tank community is leaning toward snow. With that said I'm going to build an aircraft carrier and erect a giant NEON RAINSTORM SIGN next to the rainstorm flag I have flying! Can't wait for my rainstorm. I LOVE A RAINY NIGHT!

Mr.B said...

So Mr. Foot what could be in store with this one if it is all snow? 1'-2' and 40+ mph winds. Blizzard conditions. Exactly what does a dousy mean? What is the possibiity that this could be a major ice storm for some places? Questions that will be revealed in the next 24-36 hurs.

Julee said...

Hey OCDONWEATHER!
I agree that at first glance those weather reports look like they're written in Elvish but yu cn figr it ot if yu rd slwly ad crflly.

Already BEEN to the grocery store, warning everyone along the way. Got some disbelieving looks. Got some disgusted looks. Got a look from the check-out lady like she wanted to cry -- nasty couple of days in store for her.
OH! Batteries! Have to get to the Dollar Store EARLY!

Mr.B said...

look at this link. Its only and 10% prob. but it's there.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif

NeedaSnowday said...

Mr. b .. that was a depressing link :(

c'mon SNOW!!!

Mr.B said...

Sorry but that was for a foot of snow the chance for 8" are up to 40%.

NeedaSnowday said...

Ok Mr B.. that is much more positive! Thanks! :)

Mr.B said...

Here might be a more happier link. Before you see it just think about how much snow this could equal if it is all snow.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif

Mr.B said...

needasnowday you might just get your snow days and a heapen helping more to.

ocdonweather said...

julee,
Tried- still could not fiquare it out

NeedaSnowday said...

OH WOW... ::::eyes bugging out of head:::: I do hope it is SNOW and not RAIN!!!

Thanks Mr B!

Mr.B said...

Any time needasnowday. I need some more snow days to. How about everyone you need snow days to? Of course we do.

Mr.B said...

The GFS model shows the low off shore finally but is having issues with drawing the freezing line over to the coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p06_078l.gif

Julee said...

Oh. Sorry OCD.
But no worries -- soon, all will be revealed! In white, hopefully.

Mr.B said...

where is everyone? it to empty in the comment section tonight.

Hannah said...

I am here! I'll do my best to fill this comment section, Mr. B.

Mr. Foot said...

OCDON.. HPC stands for Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. If you have a lot of free time and a burning desire to know the hierarchy of the NWS, then go to this link. They are the top tier of short range forecast analysis in the govt. All wisdom flows from HPC or so it would seem.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/about2.shtml

Zak.. comments were quiet because it is a Friday night. But thanks for the links and followup. Was with baby and then visitors so not tuned in since dinner. Lemme guess, models and 4casters trending toward snowier colder solution. Who woulda thought?

PS My favorite line from the HPC discussion was DO NOT TRUST THE NCEP MODELS is kind of like saying, YES, PLEASE THROW THE BABY OUT WITH THE BATHWATER AND TUB.
or like saying on the morning announcements:

DO NOT TRUST YOUR ASSISTANT PRINCIPALS, THEY ARE UP TO SOMETHING. Now who would say that, really? Someone at NOAA had the guts to put that in a public discussion. He's probably cleaning out his desk right now.

Hannah said...

I really, really, REALLY hope we get snow early next week, but if not, and perish the thought, I have just finished all of my homework, so I have nothing to worry about for the next few days! Physics Olympics tomorrow! HUZZAH! I can't wait! I am SO happy! We will probably lose, but it will be fun none the less!

Drew said...

12Z ECMWF still shows a K2 off / up the coast :-)

Mr. Foot said...

Here's more model fun from HPC. I can smell the proof in the pudding, and hear a blue bandwagon rolling down the hill:

MID ATLC...APPALACHIANS...
ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z RUNS OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...MM5...CMC...AND NOGAPS ARE SLOWER THAN THE
NAM/GFS AND INITIATE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR OFF THE SERN
U.S. COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WOULD SUGGEST COLDER AIR
WOULD BE ABLE TO HANG ON CLOSER TO THE MID ATLC COAST AND SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR SNOW THRU THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM DC TO NYC. AT THIS
TIME... AND WITH QUESTIONABLE NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION OVER MEXICO
AND TX...HPC IS LEANING TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A TRACK
RIGHT ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST. THIS WOULD PLACE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HVY SNOW OVER WRN VA/MD...ERN WV...AND SRN/CNTRL PA.
HOWEVER...WITH BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES...LOW THREATS FOR HVY SNOW ARE INDICATED FOR A MORE EXPANSIVE REGION EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST AND NWD INTO NY STATE.

Hannah said...

Hee hee hee! HUZZAH FOR SNOW!

Hannah said...

My mum's toe is hurting and there were birds massing all over my back yard this morning. Usually VERY good indications of precipitation!!!

Mr.B said...

Sure thing Mr. Foot I will keep posting links when I see something fishy or interesting. Sorry I wasn't here for the last 40 min I was watching Americas funniest home videos. What a crack up they are, always love to see the ones in the snow.

Hannah said...

ME TOO!

Mr.B said...

What is this?
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTION WHICH WOULD
INDICATE PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
H85/H7 AND H10/H85 THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW THROUGH 12Z AND
THEN A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z AND TO
RAIN AFTER 18Z MONDAY.

Mr. Foot said...

Signing off for the night. Very tired, 2 late nights. Have to store up energy for massive shoveling to come next week.

See you in AM with Analysis update # 2

Mr.B said...

Good night, things could be a very different when you get up. Hopefully not.

Hannah said...

Nighty night all! Sleep well. Pleasant dreams.

Mr.B said...

Time for 10pm and 11pm news. Night to all and to all a more easterly track, but not to far east.

ocdonweather said...

Thanks Mr. Foot! I don't know if you remember me. I'm the AD from SPHS who emailed you about a week ago. Does it look like my spring teams are going to have to practice indoors because of snow covered fields on Tuesday? (Peiser's fruit cup might prevent him from practicing on the track!)

E.H. Boston said...

Last call for the night...

Nothing has changed that I've noticed. Same old American models saying rain, all others, snow. More to come tomorrow. FOX 25 News said a brief period of snow to start over to all rain and then another brief period of snow. They said an inch or two here. Said NYC and Mid Atlantic could get hammered with heavy amounts of snow. Hope we can join the action, if not, all the snowpack will be gone and the grass will turn green again...Pretty much a win/win, but I'd prefer 2 feet of snow. Over and out.

linda said...

MlmR. fOOT, i DON'T REMEMBER THE lINDSEY STORM AND THE WEATHER CHANNEL SAYS THAT THAT IS WHAT THIS STORM IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE. COULD YOU TELL ME ABOUT IT PLEASE/ THANKS LM BUCKS COUNTY

linda said...

E.H. the weather channel t one point this morning said that Boston would be all snow. lm

Mr.B said...

Good morning everyone. Things have change for the better this morning. Western central maryland is predicting all snow now. I wounder why there is no special weather statements. No disscussions either in the mayland area since last night. I guess there is plenty to talk about this morning.

Mr.B said...

Mr. Foot is this link serious?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i00.gif

If it is 15" is possible.

Hokiehop said...

Glad to see that the hounds are waking up. HPC seems to be waffling a bit this morning. Bastardi still talking about it being a mountatin event, but Accu forecast now has 2-4 in Balto Monday morning. Any news on model shifts in the past 12 hours?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

News forecasters here using the word giant storm, "Still unpredictable at this point, stay tuned". There is a little more buzz in the air here in southern, PA. Maybe I'll have to dig my flag pole out to take down that rain flag? I'll still wait to pull that snow blower engine out of my boat, until I have something tangible!

Mr.B said...

Only the NAM model is predicting it to stay inland. GFS now has it off the coast according to the latest update. Mr. Foot or anyone else that knows if it was all snow what could we be seeing. Exactly what is a giant storm. 12"+?

Julee said...

Linda,

The Lindsay storm was on Feb 9, 1969 when an unpredicted 15 inches of snow fell on NYC. John Lindsay was mayor of NYC and was criticized for not clearing the streets in a timely manner.
He rode around the streets of New York in a limousine observing (and apologizing for) the chaos.
Nasty storm -- many people died, streets and services tied up for days.
The weather service, though cognizant of the storm had not seen 15 inches coming.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm . . .

Terpboy said...

Larry Cosgrove ran a Saturday post this morning. This is interesting as:
a) Cosgrove doesn't always run weekend posts; and,

b) he used some terminology that you snowdogs might find really interesting, like "blizzard" and "January, 1996".

On another note...before I forget, Mr. F...it's not like you're busy right now, or anything, but I couldn't find an email for you on the site. I have at least one link (hurricanes) that I know will interest you, and some previously unpublished photos from the tsunami, courtesy of CNN that you could use in your ES classes.

Terpboy

Julee said...

Oh and Andy --
I'm headed for York this morning, if I see your ambivalant flag, row boat and snowblower, I'll wave!

linda said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Mr. Foot said...

Except a whole lotta waffling right to the start of the event. In fact, forecasters may to the terrifying... go from all snow, to all rain, back to all snow for I-95. I have seen this before.

As for Henry at AccuWx.. I understand his points and they are well taken, but he is new in the public arena of big storm prediction. I agree that it can be mostly rain for big cities, but henry also said last month that the biggest snowstorms once started out as rain.. as in March 1888 New York City.