Thursday, February 3, 2005


For several days this week, many computer models and forecasters within the National Weather Service were continually changing their predictions for the evolution of the current storm. As of late Thursday night, many observations came in of snow is falling heavily in areas which were not supposed to have any snow at all. This is the situation with complex computer modeling. Excessive atmospheric dynamics often "short-circuit" the computers ability to pinpoint all the nuances, thus you end up with a rapidly changing situation that comes across as no less than a surprise snowstorm for some, and a surprise headache for others. As we head into the snowiest month of the year, expect the unexpected to continue.

This is also the situation East Coasters face as our eyes now turn to the next major shift in the pattern and the ensuing hype, hope or heat that will undoubtedly develop in this swing back to winter by Wednesday. Though temperatures will warm up quite a bit the next 5 days, and the sun will shine with an unfamiliar brillance for this time of year, it is a false spring. Significant rumblings in the atmosphere, as detected our semi-reliable computer models, indicate that major changes are on the way for the period beginning February 10. As that date nears and computer models resolve differences, we are now under a BIG KAHUNA WATCH as all focus from this point forward will be to nail the date and scope of the next big storm.

A more detailed post will following Friday morning to kick off the first round of Kahuna Watching, as I begin to show you how the computer models are slowly waffling toward my idea of TWO major winter storms for the period February 10-20. I will use the graphics above as the baseline, and then continue to post the updated versions for that same time period. It will be fun to see the difference in what the computer model forecasted, and what really happened. For big storm lovers, better known as "Powderhounds" it will also be a fascinating show to watch the maps dance toward your storm.

For everyone else not interested in pre-storm mayhem until it actually is about to happen, you can skip the next 5-6 days on this site and check back in Wednesday after finishing the new plantings in your garden and mowing the grass.

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