"DON'T STOP THINKING ABOUT TOMORROW..."
This picture was taken at 8:30 PM Monday February 28. This is the Dundalk High School Faculty parking lot. Now compare that with the same picture I took and posted last Thursday night. Go to to the archives and find the post for Friday February 25 with the attached headline: " A 4 day weekend for some, a 6 day weekend for others." Look at these two pictures and tell me if you think there will be school tomorrow in the Baltimore Metro Region.
DISCLAIMER: This in no way is a criticism against the hard working snow removal crews and custodial staff which have had to deal with this situation 3 times in 5 days. They work around the clock sometimes but are never fully appreciated because the public does not seem them up at 3 AM working feverishly to get schools ready. This picture is posted to demonstrate that weather and road conditions tonight are WORSE than they were Thursday night. Not to mention that my hand was colder and thus the pic more blurry.
SO DON'T STOP THINKING ABOUT TOMORROW, CAUSE FOR ALL YOU OUT IN SCHOOLHOUSE LAND, IT'LL BE ONE MORE DAY FOR YOU TO ACCOMPLISH WHAT YOU DIDN'T DO YESTERDAY.
I am going out to shovel now before it all freezes solid. It sure it pretty out there.
IT'S BEAUTIFUL....FOR NOW.
As of 5:00 PM, it is still snowing quite nicely in Southern Baltimore County, MD. Any talk of the rain/snow line coming this way is now going out with the storm as it begins the long awaited drift to the northeast. Check out the latest satellite loop as our Big Kahuna 1.75 is bombing out as it heads towards New England. Light to moderate snow with occasional heavy bursts will continue throughout the Baltimore-Philadelphia corridor and into New York City for the next 3-6 hours. Central and eastern PA will also continue to see moderate snow throughout the evening. Stormin' Norman on ABC 2 in Baltimore is in another universe as he says the storm has shifted to the west a little. You decide for yourself based on the radar and current observations if you can identify a shift to the west. I guess a center of Low pressure 100 miles off the Virginia capes classifies as "shifting to the west."
Please pardon the sarcasm, it is meant only in scientific accountability that if you are going to tell the public something, you have to tell them the truth and not bend the data so it fits what you forecasted.
It is a different ball game in western PA due to interaction with the Ohio Valley system. We are also watching a large batch of precip pivoting east under the Blue Ridge mountains. That might make it to the Bay and change to snow in the cold backlash, bringing another inch or two to southern I-95 later this evening and overnight. Some TV graphics show this Low swinging over PA and bringing rain with it... that is simply not going to happen due to the entrenched cold air firmly in place. This is demonstrated on the radar as you can clearly see the rain over southern WV swings east, runs into the mountains and emerges on the other side as snow.
The amounts I forecasted in the earlier post stand because I refuse to change my tune with every run of a computer model. If the amounts fall short, I will grade them and explain why. If they go over, same deal. If YOU think I am bending ANY data to fit my forecast, then be sure to let me know in the comments. We want to have a level playing field here and the best way to do that is to leave the data as is, and grade ourselves against it, NOT "curve" the data so the forecast performance looks better in eyes of the public.
WHAT ABOUT SCHOOL? My gut call is no school tomorrow from Baltimore County north, but we could see a 2-hour delay in the city. Howard is under pressure because they are out of days. Tonight the game changes a lot though now that darkness has arrived, temps are dropping and crew have 12 hours to do whatever they can to make schools ready. A lot of refreezing will occur in many side streets, secondary roads. I think the heavier amounts in northern parts of counties like Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick, Harford, Cecil will save the day for their southern counterparts, but be prepared to be in on Wednesday, even in PA schools. NJ schools probably out Tuesday if not a delay. NYC schools usually don't cancel unless there is well over 6". Boston schools...done deal for you. 8-12" is enough to knock at least one day out of this week. I will monitor this closely in the evening, but I am going to bed on time tonight just to be safe.
ANY MORE SURPRISES WITH THIS STORM? Plenty of uncertainty in how much snow for Boston, NYC... concern over movement of Ohio Valley system...surprise snow enhancement in Central PA might bump up totals 3-4", extensive backlash might dump 2-3" more than expected on coastal NJ, Long Island...western Philly suburbs could reach 12" are you kidding? There is lots more surprises yet to go. Temperatures plummet after the storm, it will feel like early January instead of early March...as she roars in like the Mother of all Lions.< /div>
That headline means that now snow has begun, you can breathe your sigh of relief (or horror) and get back to the regularly scheduled program... your life. We all know the anticipation of a storm is sometimes as fun as the actual storm, but this one has been playing hard to get for a few hours.
First, thanks to Julee in Hereford, Baltimore County... the official Foot's Forecast librarian, for searching the entire internet at 1:00 AM this morning to find the New York Times article about the errors in the North American Mesoscale. We will find it eventually. I'll ask Mr. Abrams at Accuweather if he can specify where in the paper he read this.
NEW YORK: Binghampton...6. Central Park...7.
NEW ENGLAND: Hartford...8. Providence...12. Boston...9. Worcester...10. Woburn...8
(please note that these amounts will be adjusted slightly as New England is in the second period of this storm, tonight to tomorrow afternoon. The interaction of the two lows may re-energize the snow and increase amounts in a second phase)
Thanks to all who posted observations, please continue doing so throughout the evening. Here is a good indicator for nervous teens about school...if your local "Snow Emergency Plan" is in effect, you have no school. That means places like Baltimore County/City have 12 hours to get the job done.
If there are any other burning questions I have not answered, feel free to post in comments and I will do my best to answer.
TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY
That headline means that now snow has begun, you can breathe your sigh of relief (or horror) and get back to the regularly scheduled program... your life. We all know the anticipation of a storm is sometimes as fun as the actual storm, but this one has been playing hard to get for a few hours.
First, thanks to Julee in Hereford, Baltimore County... the official Foot's Forecast librarian, for searching the entire internet at 1:00 AM this morning to find the New York Times article about the errors in the North American Mesoscale. We will find it eventually. I'll ask Mr. Abrams at Accuweather if he can specify where in the paper he read this.
Look who's joining the party.. (sort of). The NAM (North American Mesoscale) run as of 12Z (noted by Steve) now as placed the Low just off Nags Head, NC with a NNW movement over the next 6 hours, then a job back east after 12 hours. Awfully far east for a storm that was being written in stone as heading up through the Appalachians, but welcome aboard either way. Baltimore NWS notes that Gulf Stream bouys report pressure falls along the stream in an ENE fashion, indicating the path of our storm will follow a route that returns heavy wet snow throughout the day back over the I-95 corridor and well inland to western MD, central/southeast PA, NJ, SE New York and moving up to New England tonight. I believe the increased pressure gradient moving north will tighten up the Low sooner than the model is depicting, and the elongated W to E structure it shows later tonight will close in. I believe the evidence for my take on that is the fact that the 540dm line moves west on this model until midnight, crossing I-95 from PHL south, then suddenly shifts EAST as the low passes to the north. This is why NWS has cut back on some totals, as well as the concern for the ever-hated dry slot trying to work in from the southwest.
Cheers for evaporating cooling. For powderhounds, this is a good thing because it will counteract the so-called "warm air trying to work it's way in" that the NWS claims will cut down on amounts and change things over to rain in Southern Baltimore County, New York City, Boston, etc. I understand those concerns and they are warranted. It will be a fun battle to see how the cooling can counteract the daytime warming and northwest intrusion of warm air. Hey kids and teachers, at least you're off school so enjoy that much even if you get 2" less than you anticipated. I would consider LOWERING amounts to be a wholesale change from 10 inches to 4 inches.
The other issue to deal with is Poor Pittsburgh! I see the rain there and in Ohio, but I also see the cold wedge of air on the west side of that rain. What is going on? you ask. The Great Lakes low has rematerialized, and I would have to admit that the two jet streams are probably NOT going to phase together until much later in the game. Hence a warm slot is working in from the southwest. But evidence of my theory that the storm is heading east and will drag the snowline with it is the big push of cold air driving way down east side of the Appalachians into western North Carolina. This will enhance the pressure gradient and increase the snowfall once it begins. That cold air is firmly entrenched, and while the snow will not be light and fluffy, it will compensate by being heavy, thick and hard to see while driving, especially later during evening rush. NWS has dropped the "Heavy Snow Warning" in the Baltimore-DC area, but snow totals are pretty much where they have been...overall 6-10"
There are a few surprises still waiting... such as what will the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Low do? Will the upper level energy dive underneath and re-energize more snow on the backside as we have seen before this winter? Will the two Lows phase near New England, or stay separate? What about school Tuesday? Will there be a change to rain? I have to get some grading done so I can feel really productive and reassure myself I used this time to it's best advantage. Later this afternoon, I'll return with another roundup of observations.
HEY TEEN POWDERHOUNDS (OR ANYONE ELSE)... One of our loyal readers has created a chat room exclusively for this site. Just paste this link into your browser, click on the button once there, wait for the chat to load, and start insta-blogging away. You can report minute by minute snowfall totals if you so desire. Please ignore the "inappropriate" advertising to the right of your screen in this window, at the moment we have no control over what kind of ads are there, but are working to fix this.
FOOT'S FORECAST CHAT ROOM: http://www.geocities.com/footsforecast/ Many thanks to Brandon from Dundalk High School for putting this together.
FOOT'S FORECAST CHAT ROOM: http://www.geocities.com/footsforecast/ Many thanks to Brandon from Dundalk High School for putting this together.
SNOWFALL TOTALS
minor update as of 12 noon
This is for the period 12AM Monday to 12AM Wednesday. These amounts are "mostly final" as I may adjust slightly by an inch or two before the storm ends, but otherwise the call stands pretty much as is. . The FINAL WORD is this event is going to be MOSTLY SNOW with little or no changeover to rain due to the farther east track of the main coastal Low. The secondary Low in the Ohio Valley will play a role in the Tuesday-Wednesday period, but that will be dealt with later today. My totals stand because we've seen several instances of wraparound snow that delivers another 1-2 inches when we thought the storm was over.
VIRGINIA: Roanoke...7. Charlottesville...9. Loudon County...8. Washington...6. Richmond...3 Hayes...rain snow mixed later, up to 1"
WEST VIRGINIA: Martinsburg...10. Harper's Ferry...9. Elkins...8.
MARYLAND: Baltimore...6. Dundalk...7. Annapolis...4. Odenton...5. Ellicott City...8. Parkville...9. Frederick...12. Hagerstown...12. Myersville...12. Westminster...10. Towson...8. Aberdeen...6. Elkton...6. Salisbury...2 after rain changes back to snow. Crisfield...rain, then 1"
MARYLAND: Baltimore...6. Dundalk...7. Annapolis...4. Odenton...5. Ellicott City...8. Parkville...9. Frederick...12. Hagerstown...12. Myersville...12. Westminster...10. Towson...8. Aberdeen...6. Elkton...6. Salisbury...2 after rain changes back to snow. Crisfield...rain, then 1"
PENNSYLVANIA: Pittsburgh...rain then back to snow later...4.5 total. Altoona...5. State College...7. Harrisburg...9. Lancaster...11. Downingtown...10. Exton/Malvern/Paoli...9. Philadelphia...9. Bucks County...10.
NEW JERSEY: Rutgers..sleet/snow mixed back over to snow later...6 inches by Tuesday noon. Trenton...7. Cape May...rain/snow mixed then back over to snow later...2 inches. Sorry Frank it is not bigger than you hoped. I'll take 50% of the blame and the other half we blame on the geography of Jersey.
NEW YORK: Binghampton...6. Central Park...7.
NEW ENGLAND: Hartford...8. Providence...12. Boston...9. Worcester...10. Woburn...8
(please note that these amounts will be adjusted slightly as New England is in the second period of this storm, tonight to tomorrow afternoon. The interaction of the two lows may re-energize the snow and increase amounts in a second phase)
IF I MISSED YOUR CITY, OR YOU WOULD LIKE A PREDICTION, PLEASE POST A COMMENT AND I WILL ADD YOU TO THE ROUNDUP. If you disagree with the totals, no problem, post a comment explaining why with scientific basis. I will be at school for a short period of time and will comment again in about 2 hours. I notice as of 8:30 AM that IT HAS BEGUN here in Baltimore. Enjoy.
129 comments:
Sounds good. I'm in the chat, everyone should join, we can have some chi-chat with Mr. Foot in there, rather than clogging up the comment page with small comments.
I will not be in the chat until later today, lotsa grades and schoolwork to do before the snow!
I am happy to report that there are finally a few flakes in Dundalk
FLAKES in Paoli!
well i thought so, turned out to be a twenty-something driving up my rearend, in a hurry to get to Starbucks perhaps to check FOOTS FORECAST!
Channel 4 in NY has lowered totals from 6-12+ to 6-9 now. They did mention some sleet for Long Island, but not for where I am near Rutgers. But looking at that rain/snow line creeping up from Cape May doesn't seem good. The local radio guy is only calling for 3-6, maybe 4-8. They call this a big storm? That is what we had twice last week? I think a lot of the forecasters are worried about mixing again in the NYC area. I knew I should have brought the umbrella to work and not the snow scraper!
I think that twenty something behind you was my roommates girlfriend who likes starbucks, but she's from jersey, so she dosen't know what weather is.
First of all it was my pleasure to try to help you with the article. You do so much for us. I'll look again today.
They're DO-ing it again on TWC. They say "Snow accumulating 6 - 9 inches, chance of snow 80%. Tonight, snow accumulating 3 - 5 inches, chance of snow 60%." WHAT? I don't get it. I could understand if they said "Chance of snowing 3 - 6 inches, 60%." What is the deal?
Mr. Foot what is going to happen to all the rain over KY and TN ?
Let's all extend a nice welcome to the 12Z NAM.
what is this... 10 am and still a no show of snow here in perry hall. first everyone was starting to predict more snow and now people are predicted less and less. I am beginning to think perry hall is going to get only 1 inch if that of snow... its snowing everywhere else but here.. I wish i was where the snow is... what happened to the over a foot of snow u were calling for mr. foot? is that out of the question now.. this sucks.. it appears u have lowered your totals as well... i thought this was supposed to be like really big.
Just as I thought, a mix in central NJ, 6". Barely a moderate storm, with the hype of a hurricane! You would think that with the way all the weather stations are hyping this thing, that we would all be in for 1-2 feet of snow. We had 6" I think 3 times already this winter, without the storm being a Nor'easter. This "Major" storm is all hype, and not very harsh at all, unless it takes away from out beaches. No record snowstorm totals for this one. This will go down in the books the same way the other storms have this year; just to keep track for the yearly totals.
For the very few of you who haven't figured this out, the networks don't TELL the weather, they SELL the weather.
"Snow tonight?? Back in a few minutes" Read that: after about four more commericials. "How much snow? Tune in at 11!" Read that: after about 4 dozen commercials!!
Networks are there to make money...Basso says it all when he talks about "putting the meat in the seat!" (In this case, in front of the TV..watching THEIR sponsors.)
I'm not anywhere near as knowlegable as many of you when it comes to weather forecasting...but I do know what hype is.
Your basic TV weather person is simply reading script...much of the time provided by a service. Yeah, I know, so-and-so belongs to the Meterological blah-blah, etc. etc. They're still reading the script, and they probably have less time than it takes for your PC to warm up and get on line.
If predicting doom ain't working...'cause that's EVERYBODY'S tune..how 'bout "Hey, will this be rain ? Tune in..."
I'm a newbie here, but I certainly appreciate to time, interest, and effort that many of you put into the weather, especially, you, Mr. Foot.
Don't forget, you guys are a closed group. Most people DON'T want it snow. Why do you think the bubble-headed
bleachblonde goes: "Well, we dodged a bullet this time...back to you Muffy...!"
(Hey..."bubble-headed bleachblonde"...know where's THAT'S from???)
For years I've always told my students that only four groups really WANT it to snow:
1)Teachers
2) Students
3) People who ski and snowboard
4) People who mow lawns in the summer
(this last one is sort of a test..do you know why I included them?..post your answer in the chat room...I'll get back to you later!)
This past two weeks, I've discovered a fifth group:
Snowdogs (powderhounds, weathernerds). Yeah, I know: many of you ARE teachers, students, ski and snowboarders, but many of you aren't. You just love the weather.
I really enjoy the enthusiam...and I've learned more in the last two weeks than I have in a long time.
Keep up the energy!
Terpboy
ps- Mr. F, is is possible to link your blog with a dead-letter email, so all of this retoric will go there...and you just empty it every day of so?
Later,
TB
Mr Foot you forgot about WV in your snow totals. Can you please include Harpers Ferry or Charles Town in your next update. Thanks
channel 13 in b'more is great entertainment. Isn't it comforting that someone with a degree in radio/television from southern illinois university is giving you your forecast? You would think that they could shell out the $$ for a good forecaster from a good meteo school.
Mr. F - love your insights into the WX and the "politics" of weather forecasting. I live in Woodbridge, VA and I've been teasing my kidz about a storm of biblical proportions. We'll see if it pans out. I told them I had it on good authority they would have at least one more day off from school. (right now my wife, God bless her, is enjoying a five day weekend of biblical proportions with 4 kidz afoot)
FF-Readers: Right now I'm at work in Arlington, Virgina. I can see the wx station atop the National Science Foundation building in the Ballston neighborhood of Arlington. This link gives great plots and a near-realtime view of the weather here as experienced by this weather station: http://www.atd.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?site=nsf&units=english
It's snowing pretty good here now and you can see the pressure dropping and the dewpoint climbing. Nothing is sticking right now cause it's just hair above freezing.
cheers,
NickyDonuts
Sorry Harper's Ferry.. will do.
I guess Steve wants me to look at the 12Z Nam.
Kellbell..patience patience my friend. Storms take time.
Frank..I think there is new uncertainty in how the low pulls away and the moisture from the secondary impacts. Notice they are only focusing on the first event. NJ is in a unique spot, much like the Cape in that it sticks out so you are more prone to changeovers. Remember March 2001, if this low really pulls east, you will get your 6-12 and more. Keep an eye on radar for the real story.
Snowing hard in Dundalk since 9:45 AM 1 inch and climbing. Marty Bass and I waiting for the changeover to rain that will never come. Rain snow line is Dover to Richmond not even touching NJ or MD.... I THINK that's somewhat far from Baltimore.
This baby is just getting cranked.
Nicky Donuts... welcome aboard and great idea. I will add some webcam links to the site. Also hoping to add a picture comment link where you all can post pics if you have a dig camera.
Yes this is a weekend of biblical porportions... probably a 6.25 day weekend for Balto/DC schools.
Cited in Cyberspace!
Looked for your article online again. Still can't find it, but YOUR website had a #3 and #6 listing on one of the Yahoo searches!
Speaking of rain/snow lines ... just saw
Brooks Tomlinson ease that line right up along the Bay. Now he's saying just west of the Bay will get 4 - 6 inches of snow rain and sleet. Carroll County, and farther west 6 - 12 of pure snow.
Hey! Can he Do that?????
Mr. Foot,
any idea on how we'll do up in the Allentown area-I am feeling left out-Thanks!
Thanks for the reply. I know this whole entire area is very hard to forecast, maybe the hardest in the country. I will keep holding my breath on the rain/snow line. It seems to be holding down by Cape May thus far. I see the first flurries here at 11:45 now in Central NJ.
the radar is not all filled in the area. Will the snow fully fill in this afternoon?
The comical thing about this storm is that ch. 13 continues to push for a mix in the b'more metro region this afternoon. They just don't want to let that go.
Mr. Foot,
Please include Milton, Delaware in your forcast. Thank you!
Steve I think if you look real hard in between the flakes... this is where Marty is seeing the mix take place. That's the only explanation I have for Bassomatic on this one. They are obviously buying the NAM because it matches that 12Z breakdown.
Jim P...6-12 seems reasonable for you, given that you will stay far outside any of this rain/snow mix gibberish we have to deal with in B-more. How about..10? Given that you will get snow from the first and second lows.
Snowflakes in Dundalk (SE baltimore county) are very small, not needles but more like tiny blobs. Could indicate warm air aloft mixing in but not enough for a sleet changeover. The toughest period will be from noon to 3 when daytime heating is strongest from sun. Wherever any of you are, if you don't see evidence of mix or changeover by 2 PM, then it's a lock this is all snow. We got 45 min to go until clock starts ticking on NWS hint of mixing occuring after 1pm.
Off to lunch, grading, putting baby to nap.
Thanks-10 sounds good to me-would rather 20 but I guess i can't get too greedy
latest from www.fox29.com phila area:
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SNOW STARTS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST UPDATE.......10:40AM MONDAY
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As of 10:40am Snow was falling at the Shore and SNJ and in DE south of Middletown. The models have been all over the place with this storm and it is rare to have this during a storm itself. The LOW is between Canoe Lookout and Duck, NC and looks to be about 990mb. Slightly stronger than the models have indicated. One thing the models did do is take out some of the snow totals. That is why the higher numbers last night on the air were lowered on the site this morning. We do have a decent snow wave coming in shortly and that looks to be the theme this afternoon. Waves of light to moderate snow through 4pm with a burst after that. Sure will be interesting when this is all over why the models are and have been doing so badly. Just to keep you updated the NAM pops out .85" liquid for PHL (just in update) and it is at the coldest it has been the entire storm. This is the same model with rain the other day. I do think some rain for SNJ once you get to Hammonton South on the AC Expressway. That would be later today.
The NAM says 1.11" for Allentown and raw numbers without sleet is 12". So the NAM has good precip. with 6-10" Philly and up to 12" or so in Allentown, up to 10" but more like 5-8" for Reading. The NAM soaks Atlantic City and says really no snow. This is one strange storm or better yet group of models. It's like someone yelled run and all the models scrambled all over the place.
The GFS says 4-7" for Philly, but that 1am model really did not adjust to the LOW itself very well. The Hurricane hunters sent a C-130 plane in there like they did back in the 2003 storm. I think we have some model issues here that will not really unfold until we get final snow totals and the rain/sleet/snow line.
For now expect the unexpected. I have never said that in the middle or start of a storm but this one has trouble all over it. Not from a bust standpoint, just from overall snow numbers and 850 temps line.
I will check back in here after 1:00pm and of course on FOX29 early this afternoon.
Areas of snow are spreading into the region the next few hours with the moderate snow near DE and the SNJ shore. I will be watching for any signs of sleet and the all important 850mb line for rain. That 850mb line is the line of 32 or more at 5500 feet and is the key to how much mix in Philly and more importantly SNJ and DE.
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SNOW TOTALS....WILL VARY
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A general 5-10" for Philly metro and this is due to the radar trends and the NAM vs. GFS output earlier this morning. Depending on the sleet and or some rain SNJ and DE south of the canal will be 3-6" or 4-8". N & W just outside the city (KOP) area still could get the most with 7-12" possible with some lifitng. For now we'll watch and update.
Thanks Drew for posting such an excellent overview... what we have been talking about all along is data initialization problems with some of the model. a 5-10 mb error in strength of low could mean 5-10 million more people are affected. One would have to admit now that we are closing in on 1 pm and I see the R/S line still at Dover-Richmond that it is going to have a hard time working west of Bay by nightfall. No change in flake size or composition... I'm still plenty flakey here. Oh wait that's my dandruff. Sorry.
"Alex, I'll take 'things I didn't need to know for 200, please."
A mini update at 3 PM, and another at 5 PM.
Actually I do see a few larger flakes filtering in.
Milton DE, I would expect less than 5" given your proximity to the water, but wraparound could throw another .5 - 1" on that. So how about we settle on 4.25?
Guess I should add Fox29 to the links.
Over and out for now, see you at 3PM. Boston... I'm keeping an eye on this for you, not to fret you were abandoned.
It has been snowing very lightly here in Pittsburgh for over 4 hours now, but it is not sticking at all. Local news has lowered our total to 4 - 6". Earlier they were calling for 6 - 10".
Standing by for Armageddon: NSF Arlingon, VA Temp=32.5 Dewpoint=32 snowing canines and felines
I am getting a little worried. we have had snow since 10am and we have about an inch. When is the snow supposed to pick up? I thought this was to be the time for heavy snow. Has that moved since the storm slowed down? I have noticed that TWC has changed our amount from 6-10 to 3-5. I am wondering what the best sight is to find where the current highs and lows are.
is this storm going to turn out to be a big disappointment? if the storm is slowing down, does that mean that we could see heavier snow tonight and over night until tuesday mornin-- could we pick up a lot then? i am upset this isnt sticking as the temps are too warm. i am hoping since temp will lower tonight that we will be getting a lot.
Fifteen minutes ago here in Pikesville, I thought I was going to actually see the sun ... AIYEEE! Thin to no snow and the tiny flakes that WERE falling were blowing all around. NOW it's back to falling heavily and straight down.
Strange storm!
Still standing by for Armageddon: NSF Arlingon, VA Temp=32.4 Dewpoint=32.2 snowing canines, felines, and bovines
My column is saturated: NSF Arlingon, VA Temp=32.9 Dewpoint=32.9 snowing canines, felines, bovines, and big white furry ursines.
(ok I'll stop now)
cheers!
bOY IS IT COMING DOWN HERE NOW. WE HAVE HAVE ANOTHER INCH SINCE MY LAST COMMENT. THIS IS WHAT WE WANT TO SEE:)
When the storm ends many in the metro areas (esp. of DC and Baltimore) may very well end up below the forecasted accums.
Well, the snow is steadily falling in Pittsburgh, but everytime I look out the window expecting snow covered streets, it's bare and wet and the GRASS isn't even covered except where it lands on some of last week's snow! I couldn't be more annoyed. Or perhaps it's just my guardian angel keeping the street clean until after I go pick up my prescription...so I guess I better go!
Thanks so much for adding Pittsburgh in your forcast! My husband and I banked on your forecast last September and went to Siesta Key off Sarasota, FL right when Ivan was going to hit, because you said it wouldn't take the track everyone else was predicting...and, of course, you were right and we had the whole Key practically to ourselves!
You are my weather hero!
Mr. F
Your 2PM comment for solar radiation was right on.
Just about 15 minutes ago..bam..the concrete got cold enough to start getting covered here in Fallston. That's about 13 miles NE of Baltimore's boundary for you out-of-towners.
Hopefully, the asphalt is next!
Terpboy
Mr. Foot,
The NWS has now lowered our accumulations to 1-2 inches for the Dundalk area for this afternoon and 1-2 for this evening. Did the system move in further west? I am becoming increasingly confused. I see snow outside, but melting is occurring off my house, sidewalks, and streets.
This storm would have done much, much better if it would have came in overnight. This time of year the sun is so strong that it kills snow accumulation if the snowfall rates are not very high, and if the temps are marginal.
FINALLY we have nice, steadily falling snow. No blowing about, no wispy flakes, just medium-sized flakes falling straight from the sky and coating everything (asphalt included) with a layer of fluffy white. Doesn't look as heavy as I thought it might be.
STICKING on the street and sidewalks here in Towson!!
Hello. Storm hype is ON up here. Winter Storm Warnings galore...channel 7 news is calling for 8-12" in the city of Boston and 12-16" JUST northwest of the city by a couple to few miles...Woburn included. Lowest accumulation forecast was 6-12" of snow, and even then they said expect it to be on the higher end. So good luck to all of you with your snow...hope you all get a foot plus.
ANSWER TO TERP'S QUESTION: SNOW PLOW DRIVERS ($$$$$$$$)
Steve, good points. Sun is working hard to knock back accumulation. But around 2:30 my parking lot, which is fairly busy, started coating over nicely (or badly) for commuters. For a mix with and changeover to rain, this is nice.
If BOSTON now has warnings for 8-12" in the city that can only mean 1 of 2 things:
1. Models are showing an eastward track.
OR
2. Storm will slow down heading north and high is bending SE.
Have to do more grading before I do an update. My amounts remain firm because I think the dynamics are on our side. Just when they change amounts is whent they should hold fast. I HAVE 1-2 inches NOW in Dundalk, and it is snowing AT 1-2 inches an hour. Roads are beginning to go white.
Mr. foot,
There is some promise for this storm. From here on out (the sun angle gets lower in the sky and temps will begin to cool off) snow will accum. better on and off the road surfaces. Many of the local temps in southern pa have held in the upper 20s all day. Someone up there may still end up with close to 8 inches. Oh well, its still coming down good here near Andrew's. Taking a sneak peak at the 18Z NAM the ski areas in the green and white mountains of New England will enjoy this storm.
Thank you Steve, knew you were a true believer all along!
My next comment is not directed at Steve or anyone else, just a general observation from Dundalk at 3:15 PM
My head hangs in shame and I unfold my bag to wear so as to deflect all the criticism undoubtedly coming my way because I have breaking news...
The snow is starting to, ohmigosh, mix with and change over to..
SNOW! Who woulda thought?
Had you going there for a moment. All I need is about 6 more days off school to complete my grading and I'll be set. Whaddya think terpboy? Is that in the cards? Any pull up there in Towson?
hey Mr Foot.. happy to report no let up here in Towson.. still coming down at a decent pace.. covering the roads and sidewalks completely!! Looks like it is beginning to accumulate!
so.. mr. foot you still say 7 in dundalk? its commin down pretty hard and accumulating quite quickly.. just a few more hours of developed percipitation would ensure a 6 day weekend
After quite an anemic start (we COULD have gone to school at Hereford Middle, school day 7:15 to 2:20) at long last it LOOKS like a snow storm!
Mr. Foot, since it took a long time to get up to speed, will snow totals increase to former predictions?
(say "yes")
Mr. Foot,
How muuch longer does the hard stuff stick around? Still hoping for wrap around effect?
Here in Perry Hall it's been snowing hard for the past hour. Looks like we are in for the accumulation now with the sun starting to go down. I think we'll definitely hit that 7 to 8" mark if it keeps snowing like this. All streets and sidewalks are covered. I think we may have picked up about an 1 1/2 this past hour. Starting to get happy now. Looking forward to one more day tomorrow for Baltimore county.
In West Chester, PA we have an inch or so on most surfaces, roads are still clear, just wet as of 1540.
Snowing Heavy in CNJ for the past 20 minutes or so and finally starting to stick on more than just the grass. Roads still just wet, but I think that will change soon with the way it is falling now, and by looking at the radar, looks like it should stay on the heavy side for quite awhile.
Thanks for the forcast. I am an advid follower of your weather forcasts.
Foot-
Don't think I have any pull at Towson...but I now really believe that it WAS my snowflakes on our barn...
I have to go with your first call...I think most systems will be a "no-go" for tomorrow
I crashed for while, and now it is coming down to beat the band! Pushing 4"+
EH- not a bad guess, but it's PRIVATE snowplow drivers...those guys who do strip malls and parking lots on spec. No snow...no dough!
A friend of mine does this and he calls it "White Gold".
But I'm still waiting on "bubbled-headed bleachblonde"..anyone know where that came from?
Go snow..
Terpboy
I know you all in BCPS might be concerned about the renewed vigor of the 540dm line, better known as the RAIN SNOW line. You are worried it will cut into totals and increase chances for school tomorrow. Yes it could creep to Dundalk, BUT remember you can be thankful for all our friends in the other 4/5th of the county who will be buried with no let up until late tonight. So thank you Parkville, Pikesville, Perry Hall, Hereford, Owings Mills, on and on. Such a wonderful thing to live in a large system that stretches from Maine to Florida..er I mean PA to the southern Bay.
Working on a mini-post and will get that online soon. The baby just heard about my concerns for a rain/snow mix and now is screaming her head off in crib so I have to go on baby duty for a while.
Be back later.
ALL STATIONS ARE NOW CALLING FOR A FOOT PLUS IN THE CITY OF BOSTON BY TOMORROW 7AM, WITH 1-3" ADDITIONAL WITH THE BACKLASH TOMORROW NIGHT. ALL DEPENDS WHERE THE STORM STALLS...IF IT STALLS NEAR THE CAPE, WE WOULD GET WAY MORE THAN 1-3", BUT RIGHT NOW THEY ARE CALLING IT TO STALL IN THE GULF OF MAINE. SO AROUND 15" TOTAL WILL BE THE STORM TOTAL HERE WITH UP TO 18" IN WOBURN AND CLOSE TO 20" OVER THE NORTH SHORE. A GOOD OLD FASHIONED CLASSIC NOR'EASTER!
"Got the bubble-headed bleach blonde,
comes on at five.
She can tell ya 'bout the plane crash
with a gleam in here eye.
It's int'resting when people die,
give us dirty laundry..."
-- Don Henley "Dirty Laundry"
P.S. Re: Marty Bass --
"Kick 'em when they're up,
kick 'em when they're down..."
(also from "Dirty Laundry")
\\\Really snowing hard in Bucks county. Started laying on roads about 15 minutes and it is amazing how quickly it has built up. Downgraded the storm somewhat but still looks like enough to me. Better this than nothing.
Chip-
Go to the head of the class!
Is it too easy to ask you which group he was with earlier? Well, not you...you'll know...how about somebody else?
Terpboy
Eagles
You go Boston Baby! Didn't we know this all along. Boston NWS said in 414 PM they saw the NAM is trending EAST and colder. Who woulda thunk it? My 4cast stands, maybe I'll kick it up a notch. You might see/hear thundersnow. We are not worthy. Look at this thing on satellite. What a storm 982 mb.
Baby calm now, impressed with satellite loop. Going to post a wonderful picture of the snow here in Dundalk.
Parting with the rain/snow line is such sweet sorrow.
Mr. Foot how will we know it is you on the chat site with like 20 imposters?
Just in from WJZ, snow is falling, I repeat snow is falling. We may pick up at up to two inches an hour from six through seven...eh eight (do I hear nine, but it will stop between eight and nine tonight. Thank you Bob Turk.
Mr. Foot, how can we get the heavy snow falling and stopping at the same time? I am greedy, I want more of the fluffy white stuff.
We're picking the wrong year for a big snowfall because of the baby El Nino in the Mid-Atlantic.
I'm an alumni of Dundalk High in 1970. I would of loved two feet of snow. So would of my daughter...bell86.
Just in...Bob Turk is now saying snow throught the evening hours. Pleeeze, Mr. Turk make up your mind.
Needasnowday-
Very good...now how many more of them can you name without going to the album and looking?
Still snowing here in Harford County. Hopefully another 12 hours...but I'll settle for 6 or 7.
Terpboy
Terpboy....Glenn Frey and Joe Walsh are the only two I can recall.. sadly... I do recall ALBUMS too... and have a collection in the basement! ahh.. showing my age.. not good for a woman yanno!!
Just shoveled here in Lutherville (near Towson) and we have a solid 4 inches and climbing... snow covering the freshly shoveled places quickly.. but I better make sure I can get to HoCo in the AM based on Foot's update.. grrrrrrr
You'll know it's me on the chat because you'll just know.
Mr. Foot, we REALLY need to take care of that imposter problem in the chat room. It is really quite exasperating. Are Baltimore County schools really closed tomorrow and Wednesday? Is another foot of snow really expected? Or are these all imposter myths?
Nice job:
Foot for the forecasts...and blasting Stormin'...I love it!
needaday for Frey and Walsh...and the guy with the long hair...(that's all I know)
I REALLY don't want to rain on anybody's snow parade, but the Golden Horseshoe (Balto Co) at least TWICE in my career held school WITH the snow emergency plan in place.
hannah-
You'll have to go to Mr. Foot for the foot of snow (but I doubt it!)..as of right now, BCPS have made no call...
Terpboy
That imposter thing is all extremely vexing!!! Can nothing be done to prevent it?!
Looks like 4 to 5" right now in Perry Hall. Bob Turk is calling for another impulse in about an hour. Looks like it could be really heavy!! Maybe a quick two inches. Norm sounded like it would snow until midnight. I don't think Balto County will call tonight. They'll call off tomorrow.
Ch. 13 just listed Howie Co. as having
SIX built in snow days left on their calendar.
Balt. Co. has FOUR, Balt. city has ONE, AA Co. has NONE.
HoCo has used 3 days as of now... we dont have ANY really built in.. we have them BUILT into the end of the year - meaning we tack them on to June!
... its all about the test scores there....
Hannah, I can just delete the chat and we'll set up a private email arrangement where we can create an "offsite chat" that only registered users know about. You would send me an email requesting access, I would inform you of the site address. It's one way of handling it...which I could arrange IF there is NO SCHOOL tomorrow. If there is school, maybe your Physics Olympics team can figure out that arrangement for me.
I know that the forecasters are saying that Balto County has 4 days left but as far as I'm concerned I have now used one day of my summer vacation......I don't know about anyone else but I want to get back to school and get this MSA testing done.....Come on June...when the weather is great.
Bell86 can you guess who this is?
3" in Central NJ, forecasters are now saying 6-12" again. We'll see what happens, but if it snows as heavy as it is now for a few hours, everyone may be right!
Baltimore county only has two days built in. We have the other 5 at the end of the year. So far we would be going until June 13...which is a Monday. It would end up being a joke if we actually went in for just one day, no kids would come anyways. That would be a makeup for exams most likely. If there is not school tomorrow then we would go to June 14.
We have about 4 inches in Malvern, PA. Seven inches on the ground adding in last weeks storm leftovers. Coming down fast.
I was in the chat earlier today. I think those people are just poking fun, but it does get annoying, perhaps the chat was a bad idea? The forum is better since it's controlled.
I will see what we can do if we have school tomorrow. Hooray for Physics Olympics. Even though we are complete imbeciles, we have lots of fun. Can someone come into the chat room? I am all alone. Just follow the crickets.
Harpers Ferry WV has around 6 inches of snow.
A point for BCPS students/teachers:
A long time ago (in a galaxy far,...oh, never mind) I was told that most students in BC WALK to school (many elementarys...elementaries[?]). If the sidewalks are impassible, the kids have to walk in the streeet, ergo, no school....check the sidewalks!
This is 180 degrees from Harford or Carroll, where the students are virtually 100% bussed...and the problem in these counties are if the snow is too deep, the kids have to STAND in the street for the bus.
Knock, knock..
Who's there?
Dayno.
Dayno who?
Dayno sidewalks in Harford or Carroll counties (or darn few)
Ouch...sorry..
Terpboy
Well, it DOES seem we'll be getting a fair amount in Pittsburgh....wish I could share a few inches with Baltimore County! I'll keep my fingers crossed for you to have another snow day!
Well, it DOES seem we'll be getting a fair amount in Pittsburgh....wish I could share a few inches with Baltimore County! I'll keep my fingers crossed for you to have another snow day!
It must have been the heavy snow on the computer keys that sent that twice!
Hereford Middle has 47 school buses -- that's 47 school buses -- that travel from just above Hunt Valley to the Mason Dixon Line, and from the Carroll County line over to the Harford County line. They traverse some hilly, twisty, winding back roads in farm country that *I* wouldn't want to drive on. Some kids have already been told that when it snows heavily the buses won't be going down their streets. Wonder what will happen tomorrow morning?
. . . and thank you for that BEAUTIFUL photo Mr. Foot!
Did your daughter get to enjoy the frozen precip?
Go Go Pit and Rutgers. Hey maybe you all have played against each other in football. Frank I think the change is that whoever was saying 3" was using old data as NAM trended farther east TWICE today, at 12Z and then 18Z. Hence the 6-12 for Boston and why your totals just went up again.
Did we not say totals would have to be re-un-lowered?
Go Go Harper's Ferry, close that gap!
Oh my goodness in Dundalk the snow is mixing with and...
changing to snow again. Would you look at that. 8:16 PM and heavy snow. I think we'll have to bring out the Gong Clangers again and start the bell-ringing for no school Tuesday. Side streets in Dundalk frozen solid, no plows to be seen, a carbon copy of Thursday night all over again, this time the snow is heavier.
I am going up to school to quick take a pic of the parking lot with the school, a nice finish to a biblically long weekend. Can you say 6 DAY WEEKEND BABY? You heard it here first, BCPS closed again tomorrow. HoCO tough call, will they err on side of safety or politics or money or science?
Since MSA's are back to next week, just in time for Kahuna 3: The Final Onslaught. I'm leaning on another Howard County Special:
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL HAVE A SPECIAL MEANING THIS YEAR... YOU'LL BE GETTING OUT JULY 4.
Final update at 9:30 PM...post your observations. Heading out for that classic pic now
Our unoffical total in Malvern, PA is about 6 inches. We're getting some sleet here. Power lines are heavy, I can hear them making sounds.
YIKES! I cleaned off my back porch 40 minutes ago. Just looked outside and it's covered again with over an inch of snow! Snowing VERY heavily (and beautifully) in Pikesville right now.
julee, julee, julee:
U R de Hereford Zone. Or as some of my academically-challenged students say: The "Harford" Zone.
I just snowblowed..uh, ...snowblew... uh, cleaned my driveway. It was completely covered again when I got to the end.
I think if anybody gets off tomorrow, its the "Zone"...good luck and good snowing.
Terpboy
Oh man.. I am dyin' ovah ere with the HOWARD COUNTY SPECIAL...just think I elected to teach in HoCo for the pay...it certainly wasnt for their snow day planning!
In my humble opinion.... CLANG!
7 inches of snow here in Southern York County, still snowing VERY hard.
Snow still aroud 5". Will we make that foot?
Don't know Zak...maybe 7" more likely. Want to settle on that number instead?
Does anyone use the chat, nobody seems to be on it. Mr Foot, Kahuna 1.75 is better than no Kahuna at all. Still hoping for the big 2. Skiing should be good on Saturday.
i wasted my time to by the time i was done shoveling there was 1 inch of snow on the driveway and sidewalk.
i wasted my time to by the time i was done shoveling there was 1 inch of snow on the driveway and sidewalk.
Still snowing well in Mount Washington (not the one that's on the bumper stickers, the one in Balto City). What say you about any wrap around Mr. Foot? The radar shows this wonderful band ending soon, but the snow in southwest va. showing some signs of rotating toward us. Can it make it over the mountains?
Hey Mr. Foot.. what kind of time frame is this current snow shower expected to "end"...
as of 9:09 wbal radar shows plenty of moisture to go a few more hours http://www.thewbalchannel.com/wxmap/656368/detail.html
hmmmm villa julia late opening, and soame with a school district in PA. hmm could this be or future...
6.5" of snow in timonium at 10:00
Harpers Ferry checking in with 7 inches and still snowing! By the way our school system has cancelled for tomorrow:) The teacher in me will always be there. I am just as excited as my kids when they call school off.
7 inches sounds fine to me mr. foot.
2236-
I'm checking out the maps...it looks to me as if this bad boy ain't done yet!
Is that wraparound I see SW of DC?
'Course, that's my opinion, and I could be wrong...
Terpboy
good late evening everyone... i have a question-- when u measure how much sno has fallen do u measure the grass or the sidewalk? in perry hall it is about 6 inches on the grass and 3 inches on sidewalks... I am hoping for finals to be about another inch or so.. Lets go for 5 on sidewalks and 8 in the grass.. That would be sweet! now if we combine this storm with the last storm, there would be the big kahuna we wanted.. i wish this could have been the over a foot snow you thought might have originally occurred.
Well some good news, i have switch our current chat client over to a new one, so no more inappropriate ads, tell me what you think about it Mr.Foot.
I never did see any ads, but I guess that's a good thing. The chat is a nice addition. Watching the 11 o'clock news, looks like we should get another inch or so in the Phila suburbs. Main roads should be fairly good for morning rush, most schools on two hours day. My original prediction is bust, oh well. It was another nice addition to the winter expierence. I'm ready for one or two more of these, but then lets get on with spring. Have a good evening.
Interesting -- the BCPS website now says,
"All schools operating on normal posted schedule."
This is probably just a default message...?
It also says on the site, "MSA cancelled for March 1"
but it's not a link; there is no other info.
I wonder what what means?
They are leaving open the possibility of closing,
or maybe even getting ready for being closed?
Hmmmm...
Boston 11:45pm Snow Update:
Conditions: Heavy Snow
Accumulation: 4"
Fox 25 News: 10-15"
WBZ 4 News: 8-14"
WHDH 7 News: 9-15"
DOUSEY!!!!!!!
Snowmobile going by woke me up.
Measurements..do in grassy area that is flat. Take 3-4 readings over a 10 foot area. Average them together. Snow on sidewalks melts, not accurate.
You Go Boston. Just don't go over 9 too much.
Good job Brandon with the ads, much better now.
Stillll snowing in Dundalk. That's 14 hours of snowfall. Roads look real bad, I threw alarm clock away. Andy how's that boat doing for the slopfest 05 parade? Or are you putting it in drydock for K3?
UNCLE RICO SPEAKS - doesn't anyone want to banter anymore? I'm tired of all this snowfall talk. The only respect I get is from YOD. Is that bluegrass I saw you writing about. You should come down to OK - we mix in some country that turns your grass a slight shade of OKLAHOMA RED!
MR. Foot - My trip up north next week - will it be hampered by so called Kahuna 3? Also - do oyu have any postings on the yearly snowfall amounts? And where is that link to the airports? I need to check flight status!
Dreamlittle - go back to bed.
Still light snow in Harpers Ferry. we are just about at 7 1/2 inches out here. I don't know how much longer the light snow will last but we are awfully close to your original forecast:)
Went out at 11:15 to shovel my car out of the 6 inch "drift" -- can't be too careful with the BoE. The longer I was out there the more confident I became that we wouldn't have school. Mr. Foot was right -- it was perfectly beautiful and so quiet I could hear the snowfakes landing. Sure didn't hear any snowplows in the 45 minutes I was outside. All roads snow covered. Saw no cars. Just me and the falling snow. Ahhhhhhhhhhhh
. . . bliss.
p.s. Terpboy (that always sounds so pejorative) I don't actually live in Hereford, I commute northward one half hour every morning at 6:40, and I've been doing it for a lonnnnnnng time. Once, our principal had the faculty take a school bus tour of the "Zone" just to get an idea of how vast the territory is. Believe me . . . it is WAY vast.
julee-
I just spend about 8 or 9 minutes composing a cute (for 3:30 AM) note to you, and just as I hit send, we had a power interrupt out here in Harford County, and I lost it.
Tell you what, if we're off today, I'll try again later.
Terpboy (it beats Terpoldfuddyduddy!...see I TOLD you it was clever!)
BCPS 2 hours late
Baltimore County Snow Emergency Plan IN effect.
I warned ya'!
I can only hope that this is a "wait and see"!
Terpboy
Yes I am very very very perplexed and so much in shock that I cannot sleep. All the evidence points to closing:
- Temp not forecasted to rise about freezing until 9AM.
- Temp in Dundalk 28 F, must be much colder up north
- Roads, parking lots, sidestreets clearly in worse shape than last Thursday night when snow started *earlier* much earlier... like 5 AM not 10 or 11 AM.
- Our sidestreets and secondaries in Dundalk are not all that good right now.
- Snow Emergency Plan in effect, go figure.
- BCPS is a larger system than Harford County, yet we are open they are closed.
- There is arguably the same amount of snow as there was last Thursday night
- BCPS usually goes the way of Harford, but not always.
- MSA's already moved back a week
Evidence pointing in the other direction:
- Perhaps road crews were successful in cleaning up quickly
- Road temps may have been higher this time which has promoted more melting overnight?
- Major highways are in good shape
- All of the major collegegs are 2 hours late, perhaps that is indication roads are not too bad.
- The increasing pressure to reopen schools since we have been out 3 days already and state testing now disrupted.
- Is it possible the state has said or implied, directly or indirectly...If you close today, don't come whimpering at our door asking for a variance. Do what you can to open.
Perhaps some schools will reevaluate at 6:30-7:00 AM? We'll see. Harford did that 2 weeks ago.
Interested to hear your observations..how much snow? how are the roads?
If it doesn't work out for us teachers and students, at least we had 3 nice days off to enjoy. many who read this site get no days off even in the worst weather.
Most schools in Chesco are 2 hours late. Looking out my window both roads are black (one is a state road), sounds like some west slush in spots. Life goes on.
I was surprised to wake up to a CLEAR road! On the morning news, they are praising the efforts of the road crews... and yes, they have done a great job. The accidents are now starting to come in. I wouldnt hold my breath for the delay to change in HoCo-- they will be going in! *Its all about the test scores*
Yes, have to admit it is time for the party to end. ma penna is right, those of us in schoolhouse land shouldn't complain.
Going to make a few improvements to the site over the next week based on your input and suggestions. An opportunity to reflect on the winter and make changes for hurricane season and next winter!
Powderhounds you should feel amply fed by now, considering that kellbell made a good point..nearly 1 foot of snow has fallen on Dundalk since Thursday morning. Now THAT's a Big Kahuna.
I am concerned that winter's last stand is still out there...BK3: The Final Insult/Onslaught may be in the cards for the period Wed-Fri next week. Will look into that.
Digging out in Harford County...literally.
"Terpboy's 24" grade out later...gotta go to work.
It was a fun run, everyone!
Foot, did you get that hurricane link?
Terboy
Some Chester County schools are closing. Why? Maybe the snow still falling is scaring them? Perhaps clearing the buses and schools taking too long?
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