Friday, March 11, 2005

GREETINGS EVERYONE FROM SUNDAY RIVER, MAINE

I am taking a brief break from life in general and spending the weekend skiing with my brother, my father and friends from church. We are at Sunday River Resort where as of 8 PM, the temperature is 21 F, and the snow is absolutely pouring out of the sky in the most beautiful six-sided flakes I have ever seen. All the kudos for such great timing on this trip go to my brother Jeff, known throughout the modern world as "Footy." He did all the legwork and research to make this trip possible, and given the amazing snow we are now experiencing, it is really a nice payoff that makes all his hard work worth it.

We are the happy recipients of the latest New England snowstorm. (Seems like I’ve written about this before?). Our location is on the west central side of Maine, near the border with New Hampshire. Local forecasters were calling for 20-30” in this area earlier today, which seems a bit high but given high snow ratios and an abundant amount of moisture, that is possible. So in keeping with the tradition of posting snowfall amounts, first I give you the Foot-Krueger-Moody-Parypinski Sunday River storm grade contest:

This is for the period 5PM Friday to 8AM Sunday as measured by how much will fall on top of our Ford F-150 rental. (Now that thing is a Big Kahuna.)

Jeff Foot (Footy) = 10” (my brother)
Mr. Foot = 18”
Don Foot = 19” (my Dad)
Larry Moody = 22” (founder of Search Ministries [www.searchministries.org] and Dave’s boss)
Dave Krueger = 23” (my brother’s father-in-law, and my father's personal pastor)
Nick Parypinski = 26.45” (Larry’s son-in-law)
Josh Moody = 28” (Larry’s son)

The winner will be treated to a full roasted lobster dinner at the base lodge.

NOW ON TO THE REAL STORM FORECAST

If you’ve been following this storm, you’ve noticed it is a “triple point” of three Low pressure systems that are apparently going to converge off Cape Cod and move slowly northeast, throwing a considerable amount of moisture back over northern and central New England. I have seen a wide range of predictions for the area in which I am located, about 90 minutes north-northwest of Portland, ME. Sadly this event will or already has missed most of the Mid-Atlantic, although there was some snow in Central PA.

I would like to read about your observations, especially in Baltimore, Central NJ, New York and Boston. Josh Moody in our group is reporting that his family was out for a walk in the Baltimore area Friday afternoon, and a line of thunderstorms swept through, with a very sharp drop in temperature but no snow this time.

My original forecast for the weekend was that there would be snow flying from Central New Jersey to New England. I did not have ample time Thursday morning to go into more detail, so I figured a broad statement would cover it. A number of times this winter we’ve seen innocuous looking systems reach the waters near New England and just explode. The only concern I have with this storm is that these three systems have to combine at the right time in the right arrangement to deliver the amounts being bantyed around. Since the NAO is trending toward neutral, this would enable the storm(s) to make the turn up the coast, tap the polar vortex, and deliver another white whopper.

So, that having been said…on to the STORM GRADE SNOW AMOUNTS

MAINE: Portland…11” Augusta…14” MASSACHUSETTS: Boston…9” Woburn…10” Worcester…8”

RHODE ISLAND: Providence…7” CONNECTICUT: Hartford…4" NEW YORK CITY: 3.5” in Central Park

WHAT ABOUT THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK ?

The Final Kahuna is still on the books for last next week…in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Due to my dialup internet connection, I have limited access to computer models. It sounds really geeky and corny, but a couple times today sitting on the ski lifts, I starting thinking about this next and likely final snowstorm. I have developed an explanation of the pattern and how I think this last storm will be the event that signs the death sentence for this late winter cold regime once and for all.

A historical note that this weekend is the 12 year anniversary of the March 1993 Superstorm. See if you can find a good link that looks back at that colossal event. Check back tomorrow for results of our storm grades and a look at next week.

15 comments:

linda said...

Mr Foot, Hope you are having a wonderful time at Snowy river. It really sounds like a dream come true. Talking about next week's storm, How much snow are we talking about?

Terpboy said...

Bright sunny much of today in my work neck o'the woods...Towson. Felt like the 40's, little wind.

A band of rain came through between 5 and 6 pm, the radar made it look like the end of the world, but the actual rainfall was not too much here in Harford County

I'm still a neophyte when it comes to interpreting these forecast models, but I'm beginning to think that I see some wrinkles in the fabric 168 hours out.

Hope that's your Kahuna III.

Enjoy the skiing!

TB

E.H. Boston said...

Winter Storm Warnings for all of eastern and central MA as of 10:03pm.

They are calling for 5-8" from Plymouth to Boston and 6-12" from Boston to southern NH. North of there will likely see 12"+. Have a GREAT TIME MR. FOOT AND YOUR FAMILY. ENJOY OUR NEW ENGLAND SNOW. ITS THE BEST IN THE BUSSINESS. MY PREDICTION FOR YOU GUYS IS 21". HAVE FUN.

Julee said...

Mr. Foot
HOW dedicated are YOU?!
Writing to your Flakey Flock from your snug and snowy vacation spot. We poor little lambs in the snowless south will have to live vicariously through YOU this weekend, dreaming of drifts.
In Pikesville this afternoon we had some rainish stuff, dark and forbodeing skies, then sun, then dark skies -- nothing exciting. Certainly not the snow showers that the NWS predicted. They have subtracted ALL mention of the snow showers that were supposed to see us through to Sunday.
We will REALLY be ready for Baby Huey by Friday!
Hey to YOD in his alternate universe!

I'm going to nominate you for a Bloggie next year!

Foot's Forecast said...

Hello Flakey Flock in the snowless south:

I see Boston NWS finally caught on to the rapid deepening idea and has dumped the rain idea. Bout time.

Still heavy snow coming down, wonder iff the numbers will change as quickly as the ACC basketball scores have at the final buzzers tonight.

Final Kahuna may start out as a southern Plains to interior Mid Atlantic, but there is always the potential it takes a more southerly route which would threaten major cities and interior. AccuWx forecasters already alluding to this idea.

Thank you all for the nice comments. I do want to point out that my brother Jeff was the travel agent and captain of this trip. I am a mere gosling. But it is a super great time with 7 diehard ultra powderhounds. Saturday is going to be powderhound heaven and i will record the beauty of it all for you to see on an internet site. In fact this is a new feature I am experimenting with that would enable YOU to post pictures of your backyard too.

Nighty nite!

Foot's Forecast said...

One more thing... E.H. thank you very much for taking a closer look on this storm in my absence. I appreciate that people like you are willing to step up to the plate and add to the forecast. Makes it more of a community effort. Didn't Hillary Clinton once say, "It takes a village to clear a big snowstorm?"

The numbers you posted look really good, I think more on target than NWS or the TV stations. They seem to miss the fact that explosive development is always on the table this time of the year given so much warm/cold contrasts.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Hope you "Feet" have a great trip. Don' t break a leg unless of course you act out in a dramatic play! HOPE we do get a Kahuna here in the red neck tier of Southern Pennsyltucky. "I STILL AIN'T BUY'IN THE FACT THAT WE COUNTRY FOLK ARE GETT'IN A SNOW STORM HERE IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS SEASON; AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN!"
BUT: I HOPE you are right. My prediction STILL: No more than 4 inches of snow at BWI the rest of the season! I'm stick'in to it. Probably more like zero! I think E.H. will be busy with that snow blower, as well as the rest of the Yankees in the great white North!

Later Y'all.

E.H. Boston said...

At my house it is snowing huge wet flakes at 34 deg. However, it is 36 deg. at Logan and it is raining. N&W its 32 in Woburn with HEAVY SNOW.

Most stations are now calling for 5-10" or 6-12" now. Its gonna be a wild ride. How do you like Maine? Stephen King is from there. Snowiest state in New England.

Have a good time skiing. Bye.

Frank said...

Just two dustings and a little drizzle the past 24 hours in CNJ. Hope Mr. Foot can make it back home through all that snow!

Frank said...

Here is the snow total from central NJ. Woke up to a dusting Friday morning. Overcast the rest of the day with spotty drizzle. Then woke up this morning toanother dusting, now beautiful clear skyies. Barely any precip fell, a miss for here. Have a great time snowing. Hopefully you can make the trip home through all that snow!

Hannah said...

Where the Devil is everyone today? I hope you are having a good skiing trip, Mr. Foot and company.

Julee said...

Okay sooooooo *now* the NWS has put the slght chnc of snw BACK in the forecast til tomorrow night.
Also I just heard WBALTV saying that toward the end of the week there is a chance of a more significant snow coming from the south.
Yip.Pee!
Can you elucidate, Mr. I'm-in-snow-up-to-my-ears Foot?

Foot's Forecast said...

Good evening all...it is a glorious day here at Sunday River. Has been snowing furiously for past 26 hours, somewhere between 10 and 12 inches on the ground.

Beautiful white fluffy powder everywhere, a powderhound heaven. Glad to see Boston is finally getting in the game. Haven't checked the roundup but will be interesting to see how this storm has performed against expectations.

OK I've seen the Maine snowfall roundup...here's the link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/GYX/PNSGYX

Now our attention turns to the Final Kahuna
So far at Sunday River was have

Hannah said...

Are we going to get around three feet of snow with this Ultra Kahuna? I sure hope so.

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