Wednesday, March 23, 2005

"I'M MAD AT H---, AND I'M
NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!"
- Howard Beale, in the movie Network

Late Spring 1

EARLY SPRING COASTAL STORM TO DRENCH MID-ATLANTIC
AND DUMP ON NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THURSDAY

MID-ATLANTIC: Okay, so this is NOT the big snowstorm that I originally thought in early March would end the season right about now. for those of you who read the Dundalk Eagle article and are still waiting for the snow, looks like it is heading to New England. You obviously notice the temperatures even in Baltimore will only reach 45 F today, which is almost 15 degrees below normal. That is significant in considering had all this rain been snow, it would most certainly have been the Ultra Kahuna, with 1-2 feet of wind-whipped heavy wet snow to boot. But it is the Ultra Kahuna-rainstorm that I knew we needed to get the atmosphere cleared out and set back in order. In fact, this will be the first in a series of rain events to take us right through to next Monday. Clearing skies on Thursday sandwiches some sunshine before the weekend storm arrives.

INTERIOR NORTHEAST / NEW ENGLAND: The hits just keep on coming. I indicated this storm was on the books last Saturday, and sure enough it is on time with the heaviest snow expected overnight into Thursday. There are a couple factors which you can see for yourself will influence the outcome of this storm. The most important I believe are the NAO trending toward neutral again. This will allow the storm to nudge a little farther north than currently expected, forcing the Boston, MA and Upton, NY NWS to extend the Winter Storm Watches to include areas north of I-90. The Canadian High is parked in the perfect spot, the Tennessee Valley Low will redevelop a secondary off Virginia. The moist air inflow from the ocean, the overnight timing, evaporative cooling, fresh snowpack...lah de dah dah. All great factors that point to a significant early Spring snowfall. Meanwhile the diehards down here in nosnowland just sit on the couch in total despair. We can't go out and garden, we can't shovel snow, all we can do is watch and weep.

STORM GRADE AMOUNTS: Accuweather seems on target with their amounts. You'll notice Boston is inside their 3-6" range, which would give credence to the idea of a northward shift. It is also possible the High overpowers and sends the storm farther out to sea earlier, but this seems unlikely. So here is the preliminary call, which I will adjust slightly tonight:

Northeast PA: 4-8" / New York City: 2" / Hartford, CT: 5" / Providence, RI: 5"

Boston, MA: 4" / Worcester, MA: 5" / Woburn, MA: 6" / Plymouth, MA: 4"

7 comments:

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot:

Looking at the new QPF maps this afternoon and noticed that the heavy snow band has now moved even farther NORTH...with at least 1.0" of liquid in BOSTON in the form of SNOW.

Will the NWS extend the Winter Storm Watch/soon to be warning northward, as it looks like the heavy snow could make it all the way to the MA/NH border.

Look forward to hear your response. THANKS.

E.H. Boston said...

All of the computer models are now going BONKAHS with this storm...

Let me do my famous breakdown of the models:

(These snow predictions are for Boston/Woburn)

QPF
Liquid: .8" to 1.0"
Snow Acc: 7-10"

NAM/ETA
Liquid: 1.2" to 1.7"
Snow Acc: 10-16"

GFS (120 hour)
Liquid: .6" to 1.0"
Snow Acc: 6-10"

MY PREDICTION: 8-12"

MR. FOOT'S PREDICTION (NEW): WE WILL SEE....

Another Boston Snowstorm...what else is new:)

E.H. Boston said...

As I was writing this a WINTER STORM WARNING went up for all of Massachusetts for 6-12" and locally 15" of snow.

I think they tapped into what I was writing, or they finally got a clue...sorry, don't want to be hard on them too much...NWS is a great service. Go onto their site everyday.

DID I CALL IT THOUGH, OR DID I CALL IT, BABY!!!

Hannah said...

Hello all. Lovely weather we have got here. I like the rain. I hope all you ladies and gents up north get all the snow you have been hoping for. Well, I am off to finish my homework. Nighty night.

Mr. Foot said...

You go Boston! Good call on the snow.What a great storm this will be. I see the QPF and other models, but am keeping my accums closer to 6" because a wetter storm does not mean more snow, it just means a lower ratio. I also think an inch or two will be lost due to the warmer ground.
So a 10" storm is cut to 8", and if I forecast 6" then that's a grade of B.

Will do updated amounts this evening. What a great winter (spring) it has been for you all up there.

E.H. Boston said...

Still waiting for the snow to start. Snowing to our west, north, south, and east with a hole over eastern MA.

All stations here are going with a 5-10" or 6-12" forecast...sounds good to me:)

Will try to give you my observations of this "early season" snowstorm, but most of it will be coming overnight, probably expect updates from me around 10, and 11 or 11:30pm with Boston's latest snowstorm.

E.H. Boston said...

NO SNOW YET.