Sunday, March 20, 2005


Spring 1

It's finally here, and due to an astronomical glitch in the calendar,
it's a day early. Now the important questions are:

1. WILL THE WEATHER STAY WITH THE CALENDAR? For coastal areas south of New York City, that is a good bet from this point forward. Interior sections of New England, New York and Pennsylvania still have a risk for frost as well as some accumulating snow over the next 7 days leading up to Easter.

2. WHEN WILL WARM WEATHER ARRIVE IN FORCE? The Northeast has to endure two more coastal-type storms before the warm weather can really take over. This is the much-anticipated "pattern shift" that's been explained on this site for a few weeks now. It will take a series of large storms to reset the atmospheric imbalances caused by the negative NAO and Greenland/Canada High pressure block. The first storm comes out of the southwest on Wednesday, as shown on the graphics above, heads for the East Coast, bombs out and delivers some wrap-around snow to mainly higher elevations. The second system will take a more coastal track, from the Gulf up to the Mid-Atlantic over Easter weekend. Following this storm, I expect the Polar Vortex to retreat, taking the cold air with it and allowing the Sub-tropical Atlantic ridge (the pre-Bermuda High) to begin influencing the eastern third of the country by the first week of April.


MONDAY-TUESDAY: Dry and seasonal temperatures in the 50's through the Northeast. Some wind will help dry fields from Sunday's precip.

WEDNESDAY: In VA, MD and PA...Rain arriving from a storm moving toward the Mid-Atlantic. The rain will arrive before afternoon practice begins and continue through the evening, but clearing overnight. Later in the day, snow and rain mixed is likely along the PA/NY line and into southern New England including the Boston Metro area. A low risk for thunderstorms or lightning.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Clearing but still seasonal with temperatures in the low to mid 50's south of NYC, and in the 40's in New England. Fields will be wet from the Wednesday precip.

LOOKING AHEAD TO EASTER SUNDAY: There is a "Wet and Muddy Easter Sunday Dress Alert", as the potential still exists for a rainy coastal storm to arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning.


E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot...

Just need some input. Well, earlier in the week, it seemed like a pretty sizable storm was going to affect us up here with some heavy rains and snows. However, within the past 36 hrs. the GFS and NAM (ETA) are no longer advertising this. Is the high pressure too strong causing the storm to be shunted south. I'd like to hear/read your input. THANKS AGAIN.

E.H. Boston said...

This storm was slated for us sometime midweek this week around Wednesday. Thanks.

Julee said...

YEOW Mr. Foot,
Leaden skies, booming thunder and heavy rain here in Pikesville!
Would have been a NICE snow storm . . .

NeedaSnowday said...

2 feet of snow in WISCONSIN... thunderstorms here in TOWSON.. grrrrrrr

OT.. nice addition to the site Mr. Foot.. like the current info on right side! :)

E.H. Boston said...

HEY...storm that looked like it would dump snow on us here Wed. looks like a no "snow". Out to sea. Is winter finally over here, or will that 981 mb. coastal storm here Monday deliver some early spring snows to Boston. Look for yourself. You must be pretty busy, have not heard from you or any of the other regulars in quite a while.


Terpboy said...

Good Point, e.h.

Without a snow cloud on the horizon, the excitement seems to be gone. We had some major thunder the other night here in Northen Maryland...somewhat unusual for March.

On Saturday night ALL FOUR of my snowflakes on the barn were out (they had all blinked on Friday night). I got the message: Winter's over for this year. Took 'em down Sunday.

Nor'easter season is pretty much done, and no major weather until Tropical season.

But hurricanes aren't as pretty as a snowfall. Plus they're downright dangerous.

You might get the snow up there, but we get the tropicals least more often than New England.

(Yes, I know about the Long Island Express...).

So along about May, when the Orioles are out of it...I'll start rooting for th Red Sox again...


ps- MY NCAA bracket is in the 99.6%tile with ESPN...that puts me tied for 10,758th place...whoopee!

Foot's Forecast said...

This site focuses on two primary seasons: Winter Storms and Hurricanes. The quiet period is Spring and early Summer. Things begin to ramp up if there is risk of a large scale tornado outbreak, and of early August all eyes and ears are tuned to the tropics until November. Then we head right back into winter storm season. So April, May, June, July are the quietest periods for this site.

I had a formal observation on Monday, been doing a lot of greenhouse work at my school, on top of everything else with family and teaching. Interest has waned because when the weather gets nice, everyone goes outside, as they should. I do a weekly to twice weekly forecast in the Spring to keep specific readers appraised of severe weather. There is also the occasional late season storm for New England, which I will monitor until mid April.

But yes, weather goes to the back burner for a while once it gets warm. If it is nice and sunny, good! I don't forecast for it. The focus now is weather that can impede the Spring Sports schedule.

For a glimpse into where I will be spending a good amount of time this spring..head on over to the dundalk greenhouse:

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Yes it is true. I am crawling under a rock in my cave, and will remain until November. That's when the crystal ball will be dusted off and the Kahuna search resumes. Until then I will engage in my Spring related activites and once again become a somewhat normal and productive member of civlization. Over and out until November. P.S. I will check in every month or so. It's been a pleasure, but as Arnold would say "I'll Be back" "Hasta La Vista Baby"