Foot's Forecast | Weather Intelligence

NOW WHO'S THE EAGER BEAVER?

Heading into the long Easter Holiday Weekend, a few items for discussion:

1. EAGER BEAVERS at the Boston and New York City NWS are cleaning the wood from their teeth and using the branches to paddle each other as they bit off a great big storm which turned into the KaNOna of the year. TV and Internet outlets alike all were calling for 5-10" or 6-12" of snow throughout southern New England. "Well, the models said this or that." Is what forecasters will say. "The storm headed farther south than we expected." They'll say. If you look at the satellite loops and radar animation, you'll notice nothing of the sort. The storm simply DID NOT materialize in the way THEY FORECASTED it would. I've been down this road before, I know. The easier answer is... WE MADE A MISTAKE. The computer models over-estimated the amount of cold air available, and surface temperatures in Boston never got below 34 F. Moisture from the ocean was not wrapped into the storm as extensively as the computers indicated. The mistake came when forecasters trusted the computers more than their own intuition, which I have also done before.

2. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. I will allow the storm to finish before grading it, but I'm confident that Mr. E.H., Our trusty Director of the Northeast Observatory in Boston, will take care of that for me. Here's an updated look at what actually fell where.

3. MORE RAIN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY, CLEARNING SATURDAY. It will be a changeable weekend with fast moving systems bringing rain to the south of I-80, with snow/rain mixed to the north.

4. EASTER SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A TOTAL WASHOUT for most of the Northeast. The European model above shows a Low Pressure that will track over the Mid-Atlantic. You all know well enough that means rain for almost everyone. Better hold that Easter Egg Hunt inside, and put a poncho over the Sunday dress. The good news is it should be seasonal temperatures or even a few degrees above normal, around 60 F in Philly, low 60's Baltimore, mid 50's NYC and Boston, with 50's in Interior Pennsylvania.