"SAY IT ISN'T SO."
- Hall and Oates
Welcome to Spring Everyone! I have a few things for powderhounds to salivate over, and for Spring-a-lings to boo and hiss. Winter takes a bow and exits stage right on Sunday, but it will be a while before he cleans up his dressing room and leaves the building altogether.
1. WEEKEND WEATHER: Rain arrives late Saturday afternoon from central PA east due to a clipper system cutting through PA and northern Maryland. Though temperatures are in the 50’s daytime, I expect some changeover to snow along the PA/MD border late night, and especially in southcentral and eastern PA. Accumulations would be limited if any due to warm ground surface. Sunday brings clearing and cooler, windy conditions behind the storm, which has the potential to develop once reaching the coast. For northern New England, light snow accumulating perhaps an inch or two at the most, until the secondary develops at the coast.
2. HEY NEW ENGLAND! Keep your eyes on this one. Boston was hinting last night that a turn up the coast overnight Sunday could lead to accumulating snow, especially given an NAO trending toward neutral (means Canadian high pressure block is drifting northeast, allowing coastal storms to nudge farther north). Model variance on this means someone will have to make a call, so I guess it is me. The tightening of the jet gradient in the Northeast and the upper level Low in California will serve to put pressure on the Polar Vortex, causing it to ease north and east into Baffin Bay. I believe this will allow our coastal Low to trek farther up the coast than currently anticipated.
3. SAY IT ISN’T SO. Concern is building for a series of early Spring storms that could deliver wet snow to the I-95 cities on Wednesday and a more significant, plowable snow to the Northeast cities overnight into next Thursday. Following this would be one or more rainstorms on Easter and shortly after to wreak havoc with Sunday worship services and create mud puddles for little children to stomp in wearing their new Easter Sunday dresses. Again, the Boston NWS is already coming out of the gates with indications of an all-snow event. This is usually a sign they believe a southern storm will track along or up the coast. I have a few graphics to explain this and will effort to get them online for you. If I can't, please visit Accuweather to see them.
2. HEY NEW ENGLAND! Keep your eyes on this one. Boston was hinting last night that a turn up the coast overnight Sunday could lead to accumulating snow, especially given an NAO trending toward neutral (means Canadian high pressure block is drifting northeast, allowing coastal storms to nudge farther north). Model variance on this means someone will have to make a call, so I guess it is me. The tightening of the jet gradient in the Northeast and the upper level Low in California will serve to put pressure on the Polar Vortex, causing it to ease north and east into Baffin Bay. I believe this will allow our coastal Low to trek farther up the coast than currently anticipated.
3. SAY IT ISN’T SO. Concern is building for a series of early Spring storms that could deliver wet snow to the I-95 cities on Wednesday and a more significant, plowable snow to the Northeast cities overnight into next Thursday. Following this would be one or more rainstorms on Easter and shortly after to wreak havoc with Sunday worship services and create mud puddles for little children to stomp in wearing their new Easter Sunday dresses. Again, the Boston NWS is already coming out of the gates with indications of an all-snow event. This is usually a sign they believe a southern storm will track along or up the coast. I have a few graphics to explain this and will effort to get them online for you. If I can't, please visit Accuweather to see them.
7 comments:
THIS IS A COPY OF AN EARLIER COMMENT
Dear Mr. F-
Something that you might consider for the Spring-a-lings is a quick lesson in the dangers of lightning during the Spring athletic season. (or ANY season when lightning can occur).
In my coaching experience, most, if not all High School AD's are VERY aware of the potential harm when conditions are ripe for lightning. The same holds true for most HS coaches. You're probably aware that there are strict "get off of the field" rules in effect for the State as well as local agencies.
Unfortunately, that concern doesn't usually occur with many recreation programs. The game must go on: "Hey..those clouds are 'WAY over there...".
Posting a "Daily Lightning RisK Factor" might be neat...except that it's a lot of work...and we both know what a "bolt out of the blue" is.
It troubles me each Spring when I view kids playing or practicing in stormy conditions....with metal bats or sticks.
Thanks for your time!
TB
12:05 PM
HOLY COW Mr. Foot! SNOW on WEDNESDAY? My school is planning Spotlight on Students Night, a family event where we have upwards of 1,000 in attendance. SNOW on WEDNESDAY??? REALLY???
Terp,
That is a great suggestion and I can easily make that a part of the program when I sense that blue bolts may be on the menu. There are a variety of websites that can provide instant access to lightning data. Perhaps I can put a series of links for info relevant to Spring Sports concerns.
Step One for a Boston Snowstorm...COMPLETE.
Special Weather Statements going up all over the place for a significant snowfall.
Early Call
Boston: 1-2"
Woburn: 2-3"
Worcester, MA: 3-5"
Coastal RI: 3-6"
Hartford: 3-5"
Plymouth: 2-3"
What do you think?
Could the midweek coastal low be a KAHUNA for some part of eastern southern New England?
Weather forecasters are reluctant to say it could be a biggie because secretly I think they fear a riot with all of this snow.
Ohhhhhhhhhhhh no, EH -- the riot won't be in NEW ENGLAND . . .
What is the last possible day for frost in Maryland? Isn't it in mid-May?
I think any snow we will see in Maryland will be limited in scope. More like a rain snow mix, with at best a quick coating on the grass North of Baltimore. Spring heavy snow is possible here because we have seen it before, but with the D- winter we have had in this region, a true snow event is not in the cards for us until next season.
Everyone including me are now backing down on a first day of spring snowstorm for southern New England. SPS have been dropped for all of MA, CT, and RI. Accuweather has taken down their 3-6" prediction from yesterday afternoon too. It is a total bust. Also, in the Forecast Discussion they have now stated that much if not all of the storm next week will be in the form of rain. Elevation will play the big role in these storms as it always does in spring, and Boston or anyone inside of Rt. 128, just does not have any elevation...40-150 ft. just does not cut it. So have went down on snow accumulations:
Boston: Nothing
Woburn: Coating
Providence: Coating
Worcester: 1.5"
Berkshires: 2-4"
Hyannis: Coating
Hartford: 1"
BUST OF A SPRING SNOWSTORM
In the middle 40's right now, heading for 48-50, barring a sea breeze.
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