SOMETHING WICKED THIS WAY COMES
- Headline recommended by loyal reader "Terpboy"
1. Computer models now on to the idea of rapid coastal development on of the system coming east today. After seeing the idea a week ago, most models backed away from it in classic GFS fashion. If you remember, the potential for a big coastal storm to develop THIS Tuesday was indicated on this site a week ago. Go back and check the March 2 posts for proof.
2. Wickedly cold and bad weather will trounce the East Coast warmth and send it packing. Expect a 25-35 degree temperature drop in 12 hours along major cities Tuesday. Rain early in the day will changeover to snow, and accumulations are likely in the same places that 24 hours previously had temperatures in the 70's. Strong gusty winds nearing 40 mph will accompany the frontal passage in the early afternoon, and a rapid changeover to snow is expected behind the front. Visibility may be difficult by the evening rush with wind-whipped wet snow. As I said earlier, there was a great disturbance in the force, and any ONE or ALL of the clippers coming east in the next 7 days had the potential to become a surprise snowstorm. I am concerned that the strong winds may prompt an early dismissal for some schools in the DC and Baltimore Metro Regions, and likewise the snow mid day will do the same for some PA schools. In Central PA the snow will move east quickly enough to prevent major problems, but in northeastern PA the Poconos may get a solid 4-8" out of this storm.
3. Temperatures overnight into Tuesday will head towards record low levels...how about 18 F for Baltimore Wednesday morning? How about 13 F for Boston? That's not factoring the wind. There is concern for "flash freezing" of water on roadways, and the possibility of delay Wednesday morning in many schools throughout the Northeast due to icy road conditions. This may interfere with the Maryland MSA testing scheduled for this week. Test coordinators, be ready. Metro areas in Boston will see heavy rain today, causing considerable snowmelt, then a rapid re-freezing of all that standing water tonight, making for major travel problems.
HOW MUCH SNOW? Not unreasonable that Boston sees 4-6" out of this, with 2-4" in NYC , 1-2" in Philly and perhaps an inch in DC-Baltimore but mostly on non-roadway surfaces. Much heavier snow on the order of 6-12 inches for central Massacusetts as well as interior and northern New England. Travel will be challenging this afternoon and evening due to visibility problems and then an overnight refreezing on bridges and overpasses, then to secondary roads.
4. Ready for more? Super cold and windy Wednesday, then another storm with "coastal" written all over it comes charging east from the Ohio Valley. A lot of variance in computer model outcome of this one, but it is reasonable to say the potential exists for this system to also undergo rapid development once to the Mid Atlantic coast. Snow would break out overnight Thursday, and concern is already evident this could hang closer to the coast and throw snow back over the I-95 corridor as well as Eastern PA. This system will go ballistic as it deepens heading northeast, creating the threat for heavy snow and strong winds once again into southeastern New England on Friday and Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine on Saturday.
SPRING SPORTS WEATHER: With heavy rain changing to heavy snow, outdoor practice is a wash. Fields will freeze over tonight and probably be snow-covered tomorrow morning. Weather will be dry and windy on Wednesday and Thursday, promoting quick drying. Friday rain/snow south and snow north will once again disrupt outdoor practice.
GOING SKIING THIS WEEKEND? Conditions from Pennsylvania to Maine will be the best they may have been all winter with loads of fresh powder waiting for you.
PLANNING A MAJOR EVENT ON SATURDAY? If you are south of the Mason-Dixon Line, it is probably OK to go ahead with it. Since the system will be developing off the Jersey or Delaware coast on Thursday night-Friday, it is doubtful this will throw back enough snow to impede travelers going to a sports event on Saturday. Road crews would have 12 or more hours to clean up any snow that accumulated on parking lots.
NEXT WEEK...MUCH COLDER WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ANOTHER STORM BEFORE ALL SAID AND DONE.
39 comments:
Mr. Foot,
With all the clippers coming in this week what do you think the chances of our baseball team playing a scrimmage game this Saturday. The teams were able to get on the fields today and practice however it looked like if someone spit on the field it would not be playable. Do the systems after Wednesday look like there will be a grat deal of moisture with them? Are these prety big systems? We are hosting St. Michaels HS from the Eastern Shore on Saturday and I would like to let them know early in advance if this scrimmage will go or not. By the way, did you get my email I sent you on the BCPS email system? Thanks!
Russ, I think there is a better than average chance fields WILL have snow on them come Saturday morning. Anything that falls from Tuesday 3 PM forward is going to freeze solid with overnight temps in the teens, and barely cracking freezing Wed, then another coastal Friday which will clip us but throw a lot of snow back over the area Fri night. Given the speed and uncertainty of these systems and the fact that the polar vortex is going to reestablish itself over PA on Friday leads me to believe it would be hard for Baltimore to escape accumulating snow between now and Friday.
I will check email sorry if I missed your message. Been OCD on weather myself recently.
Mr. F-
Thank you for the "footnote". I hope that I didn't steal something that you had already thought of.
I've been telling my students, that regardless of what falls from the skies over that next week plus, it's going to play havoc with playing surfaces for a while. Thank you for the objective forecasts. I personally would like to see some more snow...but that's my opinion, and I could be wrong.
I would also like to thank you, and the many "weather-wise" contributers to your site for sparking my interest into examining the weather more closely than I ever had before.
This time last week, I didn't know what the 540 line was.
Now I'm looking for it on the projections from the various links that I have gleaned from your website.
You CAN teach an old dog new tricks! (Yeah, I know: a little knowledge is a dangerous thing!)
Terpboy
ps- I've got the GFS putting with the 540 line through Cecil County, Maryland at 1300 local (did I get that right?)
Terpy: I am glad you get as much satisfaction from reading and analyzing as I do forecasting. It is a fickle science but can be super great fun at times.
The model printout times are all UTC or GMT or Zulu time, and during EST we are 5 hours back, so the 18Z run is 1800 hours in Greenwich, England, but 1300 here. So you timing is right.
As for the thicknesses, another tidbit is that the 546 line is the first line to the right of the blue one (540) That is a good indicator of the placement of a cold front. Also the 534 to 528 lines are the best indicators of where the heaviest snow can fall. It is a measure of how thick the atmosphere is... lower thicknesses mean the atmos is compressed, hence colder. Higher levels, 550 and higher indicate atmos is expanding thus warmer. The kicker with this storm is there will be a DRAMATIC LOWERING of thicknesses in a very short period of time, from 560 tomorrow morning to probably 534 by start of practice. That is a huge change in short time period, which will lead to an almost INSTANT switchover of rain to snow in a way that will surprise many people who thought spring had finally arrived.
Oh it will be fun to watch.
How storng do you think the winds will be tomorrow? Gust 40-45Mph.
...and its even more fun for me this season!
Thanks again....
TB
Well Mr. B I'm glad you asked as I am concerned about winds at school dismissal time. This is going to be a big-black-cloud-rain-beating-against-windows kind of cold front, and I would not rule out a thunderstorm along the way for anyone. In Western MD the winds could easily reach 40 mph. I think the NWS will issue a High Wind Watch for most of the area along with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. If winds get close to that 40-45 mph threshold, we could see an early dismissal in the Balto metro schools, especially if the rain turns over to snow WITH all that wind. Will be a wild time! Like having a summer thunderstorm in winter.
Love to hear it Mr. Foot. Snow/Wind/Thunder is a great mix! Still seems like we were backed up a month still seems like febuary. Well looking at latest wind models with gust up to 40mph. Then going to bed.
Current forecasts are calling for up to 10" or even 12" in north central MA and SW NH. (Northern Worcester County) Is this accurate? One source said 1-3" for Boston and another says over 6". It is so confusing to see is correct...what I get from it is 1-6"+. To me, that is a snowfall forecast from DC to Maine...can't go wrong with a prediction like that. Flat out, how much snow do you think your picked places (Boston, Woburn, Worcester) will get.
Re: high winds tomorrow (Tuesday)...
lest we forget, downed power lines,
schools let out with no power... hee hee hee...
if we can't get out for snow,
then we'll get out for wind, dagnabbit...!
Fox 25 News at 10 is calling for...
6-8" in Boston and NW
3-6" near the South Shore, Plymouth
1-2" Cape Cod
PS...he said that these numbers could be CONSERVATIVE!
Get ready, get set, its March, and Boston is bracing for another major winter storm!!!
Mr. Foot and all other powderhounds...if you love snow and a lot of it, Boston it your town.
E.H...I may have to fall back on the original 6-12 prediction.
Prelim numbers:
Bethel: 14"
Burlington, VT: 12"
Portland: 10"
Woburn: 8"
Boston: 6"
Plymouth: 2.5"
Will take another look at these Tues AM. Looks like a winna! Put away that baseball bat and lacrosse stick and get out the shovel, the only equipment for this winter sport.
Incidentally I am coming to Sunday River with my bro and Dad on Thu-Fri-Sat-Sun. Will wave as I go overhead.
We had light rain 55 degrees at 6AM, light snow and temp falling fast at 10AM. Southeast, PA
Changeover in CNJ at about 9:15 am. Forecasts on tv were saying changeover at lunchtime, so they were off a bit. I heard 1-3" and 2-4" for here. Right now moderate snow with a light accumulation on the grass. Very windy too.
I know I use the word "genius" a lot on yrou site, but when that rain changed to snow at 9:30 this morning that was the word that sprang to mind. You are SCARY!
I am loving looking at the gorgeous snow blowing all over the campus! THANK YOU FOR MY SNOW Mr. Foot!
I'll email you a photo!
"Yrou" site?
Obviously I don't use the word "genius" when referring to me!
FYI-
Towson, Maryland
8 March
All times local:
0750 5.5 C 41 F
0845 4.0 C 36 F
0940 1.0 C 34 F
1010 -0.5 C 31 F
1025 -1.0 C 30 F
1110 -1.5 C 29 F
1200 -1.0 C 30 F clouds thinning, snow lessening
(radar says more to come)
Terpboy
Snowing hard here in doylestown, laying on the roads,as of 15 minutes ago, weather channel saying 2-4 inches. I'll check back later.
As of 12:30 PM in West Chester, PA. Heavy covering on cold surfaces, most roads fine, backroads recieving cover. Slow is blowing.
At 115 in CNJ, Blizzard like conditions. Heavy snow with winds I would say 35 mph. I can see maybe 500 ft. It is nice while it lasts. Looks like I can see the back end moving in on us quickly.
Rain is starting to mix with and change over to sleet. Snow cannot be too far off. My thermometer reads 35 deg. In a few minutes I'll give you a rundown on what everyone is saying for Boston.
Nice little observational history of today's storm at Arlington, Virginia can be found here:
http://www.atd.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?site=nsf&units=english
Note temperature crash and almost 180 degree wind shift
NickyD
Last Updated at 2:28pm on 3/08/2005
DC-THE NEW SCHOOL FOR ENT-DEV PCS
CLOSING AT 12:30 PM DUE TO A FLOOD
VA-CONGRESSIONAL SCHOOLS OF VA
CLOSES AT 3PM NO AFTERNOON ACTIVITIES
VA-STAFFORD CO. SCHOOLS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITIES CANCELED
VA-EMMANUEL CHRISTIAN SCHOOL MANASSAS
CLOSING 3 HRS EARLY
VA-FAIRFAX CO. SCHOOLS
CLOSING ON TIME NO EVENING CLASSES OR ACTIVITIES
VA-PRINCE WILLIAM CO. SCHOOLS
NO PM KG AND ACTIVITIES HS DISMISSAL 12PM; MS DISMISSAL 1:30PM
Winter Weather Advisory for Boston for 4-6"
Winter Storm Warning for anywhere JUST NW of Boston for 6-10"
My sister in Winchester/Woburn just said the rain flipped to snow there within the past 10 minutes.
Let the fun begin!!!
2:45 PM West Chester, PA
I went into town to go to Post Office, it has stopped snowing, we have a little ice/snow cover. It is 22 degress right now. Looks like it's over now, until Friday's storm.
Probably about 2 1/2" by Rutgers, with the snow coming to an end. Nice little storm I would say.
Snow is about over in Doylestown, Roads are icy. They let bccc out early, and classes are cancelled fot this evening. Went from spring to winter in a very short time!!!
When I got up this morning 99% of snow was off my lawn, now its completely covered again.
The snow was absolutely beautiful in Dundalk! I was in the middle of English, looking for animal and machine imagery used by Stephen Crane to analyze Naturalism, but I just had to stare out the window for a few moments. You can't deny that it was beautiful snow. If the ground had only been a little colder, imagine how much snow we would have had! I hope there is lots more to come!
OK, OK...the radar lied. Partly sunny here in beautiful downtown Fallston, and a negative 3.5 C.
DT hasn't posted his "9 PM Monday update", yet. Cosgrove's 12 hours old. Both hinted for a "I-95" snow event (if I read them correctly)...your possible K-3 from last week.
What's the status?
TB
ps- Sunday River has 2-3" new...expects 5" more. (my co-worker from Maine says that her mother, North of Portland, expects over a foot.)
Man, am I envious
OK, OK...the radar lied. Partly sunny here in beautiful downtown Fallston, and a negative 3.5 C.
DT hasn't posted his "9 PM Monday update", yet. Cosgrove's 12 hours old. Both hinted for a "I-95" snow event (if I read them correctly)...your possible K-3 from last week.
What's the status?
TB
ps- Sunday River has 2-3" new...expects 5" more. (my co-worker from Maine says that her mother, North of Portland, expects over a foot.)
Man, am I envious
Great observations everyone, makes one feel like they are experiencing the storm with you.
Was nervous for a while in Balto County as it appeared snow would continue for a while, then stopped and cleared.
So Boston...sounds like 6" is not too far off a forecast then. I will leave those numbers intact as they look on target to me.
Light covering of grass in Dundalk, roads clear, wind howling something fierce. Now was that excitement something wicked or what?
I have to go look at new runs for Friday's storm. Still thinking it has potential for backlash snow to DC, and northern NE and Maine will get clobbered again.
See you later tonight with the evening update
oops!
burped again!
sorry
VERY CONCERNED...
Snow shield seems to be breaking up to the south of us. In southern CT and RI it has stopped! Just a light dusting here so far with an inch in Woburn. ONE station (WBZ) is now only calling for 1-2" for Boston and 2-6" NW. WHDH is still calling for 2-5" for Boston and 4-7" Just NW and 6-10" well NW. Could this be a BUST...I hope the snow fills itself in again...my hopes are way too up.
on weather.com it says "snow" for Friday for D.C. north!!!!!
24 deg. where I live now with blinding snowfall. Winds are crazy. A thick coating where I live to now 2" in Woburn. New band of heavy snow developed south of Long Island...we are in for it until midnight.
Highest snowfall total so far is 5" in Gardner. (Worcester Co.)
Snowfall to date: 78.1"+
Mr. Foot...
Near BLIZZARD conditions outside right now...cannot see a 100yds. down the street. Look at the radar on Boston NWS...a solid shield of HEAVY SNOW. Winds are easily over 40 mph with gust to 55mph. Mr. Foot believe me, it reminds me of the Jan. 22 storm. Its 16 deg. right now outside and it feels well below zero. It is a pdhound's dream.
Snow Accumulations So Far...
Boston: 3.5" My Home...drifts of 6"+
Woburn: 5.5" Drifts well over 8"
This looks and feels like the BLIZZARD OF 05 II. REALLY, NO JOKE!
Amazing winter!
PS. Likely moderate to heavy snows here indicated by NWS for this weekend!!! 100" here we come!
Just home from Hunt Valley. Driving south on I83, my car and I were most seriously buffeted about by the prevailing westerlies, or easterlies -- whatever. SOMEthing was buffeting. Pushed us all over the highway!
And for a nice start to that little adventure, I slipped and fell on the ice-covered steps at my parent's house. Anyone remember that deliciously evil film, "The Man Who Came to Dinner"?
WAIT A MINUTE! How is this even possible? Wasn't it SIXTY degrees yesterday afternoon?
Will I be enjoying MORE flakes from the sky Mr. Foot?
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