Thursday, April 7, 2005

RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS NOW MORE LIKELY
TO DISRUPT SPORTING EVENTS THU-FRI

A quick look at the satellite and water vapor imagery shows that the atmosphere is getting primted for a round of thunderstorms in the DC-Baltimore region later today and Philly-NYC tonight. This will not help areas that are still drying out from last weekend's monsoon. South winds are advancing ocean moisture ahead of an vigorous low and cold front coming out of the Tennessee Valley. If there is any sun peeking through ahead of this front, the solar radiation will enhance heating and evaporation, triggering rapid development of the moisture into "popcorn" variety thunderstorms from 4pm to 8pm. This poses a threat to afternoon practice and games, which may be able to START but may get cut short due to rain or thunder or lightning or all of the above.

Check your latest radar for the best indicator of when the storms will arrive. When you see little green and yellow blobs and starting to litter the radar field just to your west, that is a clear sign thunderstorms are developing independently of the front and will arrive sooner than expected. I have found that Mid-Atlantic Radar / Northeast Radar from intellicast are the most reliable. Click the "animate" feature for a loop.

4 comments:

Windy said...

Goomorning Mr Foot! :)

I read your posts every day and during severe weather, I check your blog several times a day! Thanks for sharing the personal side of you with everyone. It's always nice to see the face behind the blog! :)

I am from Erie County and can relate to everything you are saying about that area. Your daughter is beautiful! Yes, The Long and Winding Road. I now live in Elk County and have been here for 25 years and have been a weather observer longer than that. Thanks for all you do for everyone! :) Now I have to get busy and do my weather page!

Have a great day Mr Foot, I'll see you again soon when I check your blog later!;)

:)

E.H. Boston said...

THE SOX OPENER ON MONDAY IS GOING TO HAVE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHS NEAR 40, AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A LOW OF 30 AT NIGHT!!!

MR FOOT WHAT HAPPENED TO THE 65-70 FORECAST MANY FORECASTERS WERE GOING WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO???

PLEASE TELL ME THAT THIS WILL JUST BE SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AND NOT AN EVENT OR STORM!

SNOW SNOW GO AWAY AND COME AGAIN AFTER THANKSGIVING!!!

OVER AND OUT...LETS GET THAT SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST.

Foot's Forecast said...

Well thank you Bonnie for the nice comments. I have to admit that trying to track severe weather can be all-consuming, so I limit it to morning quarterbacking. Since I teach high school, I just give my view on things for the next day or two, including where the severe wx may strike, and leave it up to you to follow the trends on the radar.

Unfortunately I can't update more than twice a day, so please don't think I am ignoring the situation or the weather! But thank you for your input and observations, and maybe you'll help spurn a new realm of severe weather followers on this site.

E.H... yes it is amazing that 65-70 can be erased so quickly. I am skeptical of that. Might be blind GFS obedience again. The temps the day before (Sunday) will be in the 50's. Even if it's overnight, nothing will stick. I'll bet they pull that from the forecast as it gets closer, and you just get all rain, albeit a cold one.

E.H. Boston said...

As usual, you were right Mr. Foot. The snow is totally out of the forecast with highs in the mid 40's on Monday and upper 40's on Tuesday...upper 50's to low and mid 60's will return by late week. No worries in Boston anymore.

60 outside right now and off to see my son's baseball team...he's pitching. Talk to you later...cannot wait till next winter when all the fun, arguments, my QPF snowfall predictions, daily roundup of the models (computer), and all around good fun starts up again. Keep up the good work and I'll be back once the first flake falls from the sky in Boston sometime in October or November of next year. What's that, only 6 or 7 months...that will fly by and before you know it you will be getting 130+ comments daily again.

As always, enjoy our great weather.