Friday, June 3, 2005

HURRICANE SEASON KICKS OFF
WITH ACTIVE CARIBBEAN PATTERN

6-2-05

Two systems show signs of being first out of the gate for the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season. The NHC tropical weather discussion indicates the SE Caribbean system has been showing some circulation. Here is the comment:

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S 0F 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N42W-8N35W. "

The second system in the southern Gulf has been interacting with land for two days now, but continues to show what appears to an outflow-like arrangement to it's northern and eastern quadrants.

Here is the NHC comment:

"THE PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY ACTIVE OVER THE E GULF COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 90W. DEEP-LAYERED S FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSETTLED/STORMY REGIME MAINLY OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER THE GULF THEN PROPAGATED NE ACROSS FLORIDA."

I am sorry that I have not yet posted the hurricane forecast. I will do this as soon as I can, trying to get a few other large projects moving along before I can refocus on final touches to the summer-fall forecast. Thanks for your patience.

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