Friday, June 10, 2005

WILL ARLENE BE ANOTHER AGNES?

Arlene 1

ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT ARLENE:

1. IT IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, SO WON'T BECOME A HURRICANE, RIGHT? The NHC continues to up the landfall intensity forecast to a current near-hurricane force of 70 mph. With upper level shear weakening as the storm enters the Gulf, and water temperatures 2 deg F above normal, and slow movement, I believe it is just as likely the storm reaches hurricane strength as it does not.

2. HEAVY RAINS FOR 2 DAYS IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL WILL SOAK GROUNDS. This will allow for a greater than anticipated rish for downing of trees due to 50-70 mph winds, thus power lines and many headaches for areas recovering from Ivan.

3. PATH OF ARLENE MEANS THAT AREAS IN EASTERN QUADRANT WILL BE IMPACTED THE GREATEST. That is from Mobile Bay, AL eastward to Pensacola. Onshore winds combined with forward motion speed will mean these areas experience hurricane force winds by default.

4. REMNANTS WILL MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING EAST FROM ROCKIES. This will make for heavy flooding rains in the Mississippi into the Ohio Valleys from Sunday into Tuesday.

AS FOR THE AGNES QUESTION? Arlene will stay away from the Atlantic moisture source, so it cannot generate the kind of 1000 year flooding that Agnes caused.

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