Wednesday, July 20, 2005

AN EMILY POST

Emily at Mexico Coast


6:35 am, Emily makes landfall and appears to be slowing or stalling near the coast. Although storms like this can have two landfalls, I think it is ironic that Mexico was struck by the same major hurricane....twice. First a Category 4 at Cozumel, then a Category 3 along the north Mexico coast. Near catastrophic flooding will occur in the areas surrounding Monterrey, Mexico as the mountainous terrain is going to enhance rainfall and runoff. This storm has continued exhibited a diverse personality over it's lifespan...with a sharp rise to Cat 4 early on, then faded back to 2, then back to 4, then a slow lessening to 3 before reaching Cozumel. Once in the Gulf, it took the usual 36 or so hours to reorganize, and re-established major hurricane status in the day prior to landfall. Coming right on the heels of Dennis, this storm snagged the claim Dennis just had... that of the strongest July hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. Kind of makes you wonder what August and September hold?


The futures market is weighing in on this, as MSNBC reports that college professors in Miami have developed a program that allows futures trading on where a hurricane is most likely to strike. If a trader is correct in their prediction, I suppose it is possible to have financial gain from a hurricane landfall. That just makes me uncomfortable thinking about it. This also inserts an element of market forces into evacuation decisions, where people living in an area the futures program has pegged as a "winner" now have more than just the local government saying they should leave. As you would expect, the National Hurricane Center is none-too-amused at this "game" as they see it. Read the full article linked above for a good overview of this latest controversy with the weather.

Emily 2

A view of Mexico bounded by two tropical systems, T.S. Eugene on the left, Emily on the right. Isn't that odd the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic spawned storms on the same alphabet sequence? This is shaping up to be quite the tropical summer for many, from multiple U.S. and Mexico landfalls so early, to a stalled hurricane remnant that's dumped monsoon like rains fro the Midwest to New England. I'm sure many are looking forward to a much needed quiet person in the tropics, which I expect to last for another 2 weeks. Once August gets underway, it is going to get very very busy again. The previous post outlines my forecast for the second half of summer.

3 comments:

Julee said...

An Emily Post.
You should be writing for The New Yorker,

That photo of Eugene and Emily looks fabricated! Incredible. What would be the outcome if the two met?
Is that possible? Would they gain strength or rip each other to pieces?

E.H. Boston said...

TWO consecutive days of 90+ deg. here in Boston.

Will make it a HEAT WAVE IF we hit 90 again tomorrow and right now forecasters are calling for 87 or 88 deg. It may not turn out to be an official heat wave, but it sure is HOT. Friday should be back in the 90-95 range with heat indexes back over 100, before Saturday will struggle to reach 80.

PS. Are the HEAT WAVE requirements different from place to place...like in Dundalk, or Phoenix, AR because they are over 90 for months at a time. Just a thought. Anyway everyone enjoy/dislike, if your a hurricane fanatic, the lull in the action.

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