Sunday, July 10, 2005

OIL PRICES THIS WEEK
WILL BE NO DAY AT THE BEACH

Dennis 6

As feared, Dennis intensified to Category 4 shortly before landfall along the Florida/Alabama coastline. The devastation and heartache will far exceed anything we've seen in a hurricane since Andrew. Oil markets this week will react with extreme volatility, sending prices past $70 a barrel. The impacts from this storm will be wide-reaching, affecting everything from the home heating oil market to gas prices surging another 10-15 cents as we approach Labor Day, to a sharp rise in the price of plywood, to an increase in homeowner's insurance premiums next year. A new chapter in history will have been written on July hurricanes. We are likely to see a serious re-examination by insurers on the feasibility of rebuilding in areas twice ravaged by a major hurricane. Some coastal areas will take 5 years or more to recover. The debris will take 2 or more years to remove, and life for some will never get back to normal.

This is my last report on Hurricane Dennis possibly until next Saturday, as I will away with family. I pray that all the families in this storm will be safe, make the right decisions and seek comfort in the everlasting arms.

AN EYEFULL

Dennis 5
This is the final update of the evening. After seeing this picture on Steve Gregory's blog at wunderground.com, I had to post it. By the time we wake up on this soon-to-be fateful Sunday July 10, we may be looking at a Category 5 or nearly so. The destruction and havoc to be wreaked on this date will give new meaning to the numbers "7-11" for the people of Pensacola and the surrounding areas, including Mobile and it's bay. When they wake up on Monday, July 11, it will look and feel to them they just went through their own 9/11.

BRACE FOR IMPACT

Brace for Impact

A MENACE TO ALL...MERCY FOR NONE

Dennis 3

POST FROM 3:35 pm: The end of innocence has arrived, and words just cannot express how dire the situation is and will be in the north Gulf Coast between New Orleans and Pensacola, over the next 24 hours and in the days and months beyond. With waters running at or above 85 F, and a low shear environment, it seems all but certain this storm will come onshore at least a Category 3 if not a baseline 4. Remember that in the eywall, winds are stronger at higher elevations, so buildings in excess of 50 feet will experience more damage than those at ground level, even if the storm is a weak 2 at landfall. If you look at the satellite image above, you can see the western eyewall has closed in. This indicates there is a favorable environment for strengthening, as the storm is not currently entraining drier air from landmasses to the north. As the Weather Channel has been reporting well, a sign a storm will weaken is when the pressure rises, the false-color image cloud tops lighten, and the western eyewall begins to decay. Landfall may in fact be almost exactly where Ivan came on shore.

Some notable north Gulf coast storm tracks: Compare Dennis thus far to Betsy 1965, Camille in August 1969, Frederick 1979, Elena 1985, Opal 1995, and Georges 1998.

Our storm with the already overused "menace" moniker is gathering steam as you read this. View the current radar loop and current satellite loop. The latest tracking information is available at wunderground.com or at the National Hurricane Center. The Pensacola News Journal, again in the bullseye, is providing up-to-the minute reports on local preparations. The NHC will continue to post updates every 2-3 hours, and their analysis is available in the discussion link.

Tomorrow morning, I will attempt to complete and post my "Similarities and Differences" overview between Dennis and Ivan. This much I am sure: The damage, heartache and recovery will be worse, because of the existing unfinished repairs. Now we just wait uneasily for the clock to tick down.

41 comments:

Mr. Foot said...

I sure hope I am dead wrong, but there does not seem to be anything that would curve this storm away from it's NW flow. No encroaching frontal boundary, steering currents remain steady. Intensification means storm will begin to dictate it's own direction once again. NOAA's GFDL model is showing a Miss Delta landfall now for 2 runs. If this thing has a surprise up it's sleeve for New Orleans, it is too late to begin a city-wide evacuation. If other models start to come around that way, we will be looking at a massive public relations disaster and logistical nightmare the likes of which we have not seen since 9/11. There is perhaps 24-30 hours until landfall. If I was in New Orleans, I would already have left just to be safe. A 9-12 foot surge will push Gulf water from the Chandeleur Sound into Mississippi Sound and Lake Borgne. That will overflow into Ponchartrain, and then it is curtains. Route 11 will shut down, as will the Causeway, which leaves only Routes 10 or 55 as the main arteries out of town.

I know the city planner folks know all this, but it is an AWFULLY BIG RISK they are taking.

What if there is explosive development like with Opal (1 to 4 overnight)? What if the turn to N does not happen?

I hope it is just my paranoia and not the fact that this scenario is already starting to come true.

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot:

I totally agree with you and your paranoia. I have just looked at the forecast models and this is what they are showing:

GFS 120 Hour- Shows landfall near or just to the west of Pensacola, FL.

NAM 84 Hour (aka ETA)- " " " " ON TOP OF the city of New Orleans!

NGM 48 Hour- Somewhere in southeastern Louisiana

MRF- right over Pensacola, FL

ECMWF- Near Biloxi, AL

Seems like the models are showing a more WESTWARD track, which could prove to be a MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC DISASTER for the citizens of New Orleans...hopefully it does not come true, but if it does many people will be in harm's way.

We will find out in 30 hours...

Terpboy said...

Looks like UKMET has landall right on the Fla/Ala border, according to my "freebie" site, and NOGAPS is just using the TPC map, right?

Don't forget...high tide is between 1300 and 1400 Sunday.

I had a student who lived in the Big Easy during Georges, he remembered the evacuation as a absolute screw-up.

e.h.- I hope all is well with your kin in London...

terpboy

Terpboy said...

Finally found Cosgrove...

He published a while ago (www.easternuswx.com).

He calls for a 7 PM landfall at Gulfport, a Cat 4, with maybe a shot at 5....

At least it'll be low tide...

Julee said...

I saw Jim Cantore in Pensacola at 5:00 and just as you predicted Mr. Foot, he showed the piles of debris left over from last year, stacks of roofing supplies in front of houses yet to be repaired and the mobile homes that those poor people are still living in. He was making the point that all of that material will be turned into deadly projectiles in just 24 hours.
Bless all the people in it's path.

Mr. Foot said...

Right before I read the comments, I was thinking...
- Would anyone have guessed it could regain Cat 3 so quick

- Would anyone have guessed it would aim for Cat 4.

- Does it seem implausible it knocks on the door of 5 right before landfall. Even if the winds are 150, a forward motion of 13 is in effect a Cat 5 speed.

- It may have been ridiculous to predict back to a 4 when it was rumbling around Cuba weakening to a 1. But now...4 is just around the corner. I fear I will wake up to a storm with winds of 150 mph and still 6-10 hours to go before landfall.

That is the update tonight, leaving for NJ tomorrow so going to bed early so I can finish up and do one more post before departure. What a long road ahead they all have.

E.H. Boston said...

Thanks for your best of wishes Terphoy...everybody is okay...in fact one of my cousins who lives there was at one of the subway stations, of tubes as they call them, just 2 hours prior before the initial blast, on her way to work.

We are still counting our blessings about our good fortune and our greatest simpathies go out to all the other families of the killed and injured...

FINALLY, GOOD LUCK TO EVERYBODY IN THE PATH OF DENNIS...IT IS GOING TO BE A BAD STORM NO MATTER WHERE IT STRIKES...DON'T TRY TO FACE OFF MOTHER NATURE AND NOT LEAVE IF YOU HAVE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS. BE SMART...IT COULD SAVE YOUR LIFE.

E.H. Boston said...

Sorry, in my 5pm post I wrote Biloxi, Alabama...

CORRECTION---Biloxi, Mississippi

Terpboy said...

e.h.-

You're welcome...once a friend of mine had a bad cold and didn't go to his monthly meeting in New York. He normally stepped off the subway about 8:45 AM...at the World Trade Center.

It was September 11, 2001....

May the folks on the Gulf Coast be as fortunate as him, and your cousin.

E.H. Boston said...

About ONE more hour until DENNIS makes landfall.

Time is ticking down...

Terpboy said...

Good call e.h.-

Land fall was 3:15 PM EDT...it ain't good, but I think it could have been worse.

Terpboy said...

Now comes the worst part:

9 out of 10 hurricanes deaths occur by drowning...in fresh water. (really)

Usually in a pickup truck. (I added that one)

People many miles from the sea sometimes don't understand the power of a tropical storm-soaked creek or stream.

E.H. Boston said...

CNN just said that the tropical wave out in the Atlantic is forecasted to become TD 5 and then Tropical Storm EMILY...

Who knows if she will make a name for herself as her older brother Dennis did?

Time, once again, will tell.

Terpboy said...

Go to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The graphs and charts on this are being updated as we speak.

E.H. Boston said...

Well, Emily looks to be born as a TS within hours and then by Friday night or early Saturday morning it will be a hurricane, potentially...could Franklin be right behind her....

Vacation week and I am off to the beach with the family to enjoy the 95 degree heat.

Watch out for Emily...south Florida, the Carolinas, and maybe even you guys in the Mid Atlantic/Baltimore area for a possible, well you know.

E.H. Boston said...

Here we go again. It is official. Tropical Storm Emily is born, now with winds of 45 mph and an estimated pressure of 1003 mb. We will expect it to enter the Lesser Antilles...and then it is up in the air, but a possible strike as a Category 1 or 2 HURRICANE Hispanola and then even eastern Cuba.

Another very impressive tropical low pressure system right behind Emily, could it be Franklin...still yet another strong tropical wave behind the possible Franklin.

WOW! From the way I look at it, it is only a matter of time before one of these awesome storms takes a NNW turn right up the east coast and likely hits eastern Florida or one of the Carolinas. The Mid Atlantic and even Boston is not out of the woods until I'd say Halloween. Enjoy the nice weather...for you could be living in southern Illinois or Indiana where according to QPF estimates they could be seeing 8-14" of rain, with local amounts of 16"+. Now that is some heavy duty rain.

Five named storms and counting, could we beat the 19 named storms of the 1995 season?

If I recall didn't the east coast have a WICKED winter season in 95-96? Just throwing it out there, for you powderhounds.

Terpboy said...

For what it's worth, we're 5 for 5.

Five depressions...five named storms..anybody know what the record is? (I don't)

Terpboy said...

Tuesday-

I found out from another forum that 1995 had every TD get named. (ie. at least 39 mph sustained winds).

That was 19 for 19, with 11 reaching hurricane status.

Only two struck the US as hurricanes.

Erin and Opal (bad)

Julee said...

Okay NOW EH is dangling wicked winter weather in front of me! The only thing that keeps me going in 90+ temps.
Anyone know the hurricane/blizzard correlation possibilities?

The Hot Weather Wimp

E.H. Boston said...

Emily could be a Cat 3 with winds of 115+ mph by THURSDAY in the Carribean...

Another Gulf Coast strike is possible...will they be able to take it again.

Terpboy said...

Don't board up your windows just yet- some (some) experts say that Em is falling apart.

See: (updated to 1545 EDT)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

E.H. Boston said...

I am NO expert, but to me Emily looks to have a healthy amount of thunderstorms around the area of low pressure, with winds of 50 mph, she could fall apart, but until I see NOAA change their forecast of this becoming a CAT 3, I am not so sure about (some) of these experts.

Hopefully, I am all wrong, so their is no more destruction...for all of our sakes.

Terpboy said...

Emily looks like she's gaining her integrity..see:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

There is a weather forum that I've belong to since last winter,

http://www.easternuswx.com/

it's very interesting and informative. You can log on as a guest, or join (no charge) as a member. There are, however, some folks on there who must make the website their life.

They start name-calling one another when their forecasts disagree. It's a hoot.

It IS, though, worth looking at, as some hotshot pros (and amateurs) do contribute some valuable info, charts, and prognostications!

Of course, it goes without saying: nothing could replace Mr. Foot....

E.H. Boston said...

WOW!!!

I am not the biggest supporter of President Bush, and when I heard what he did I could not help but laugh and feel a little bit embarrassed.

Okay, I know we (the US) is not the greatest of friends with Cuba and Castro, but come on, they did get hit with a Cat 4 (145 mph) Dennis and suffered catastrophic damage.

Do you know how much money President Bush offered to the people of Cuba???

It is staggering and I will tell you the answer, if you can not figure it out, a little later on.

Terpboy said...

Cuba Turns Down U.S. Hurricane Aid Offer


The Associated Press
Monday, July 11, 2005; 10:49 PM



HAVANA -- Fidel Castro's communist government, laboring to recover from widespread damage caused by Hurricane Dennis, turned down a U.S. offer of $50,000 in aid, American officials said Monday.

[note: the $ was for "cleaning streets"]

"Unfortunately, the Castro government declined the offer," State Department spokesman Tom Casey said in Washington.

Dennis struck Cuba on Friday, killing 11 people, damaging hundreds of homes and ruining crops.

Cuba, which has not had diplomatic relations with the United States for more than four decades, has routinely turned down occasional offers of humanitarian assistance from the American government following devastating hurricanes.

During an appearance on state television Monday night, President Fidel Castro said Cuba would accept no American assistance while the U.S. trade embargo of more than 40 years remains in place.

"We would never accept," said Castro. "If they offered $1 billion we would say no."

Nevertheless, the Cuban leader said, "we are grateful" for the offer.


WOW! 50K...how generous!! How much was his inauguration again??

E.H. Boston said...

Pretty good Terpboy.

50K...what could that buy you to clean up after a catastrophic hurricane; a dumpy big pickup truck and maybe a Bobcat to help clean a street at a time, let alone pay the workers that will be cleaning with it.

I don't know about anyone else, but that kind of offer coming from the richest country in the world is an embarrassment to all of us...and this is why the US is the greatest country in the world because we can criticize what they do.

If you are going to offer so little, don't waste the effort. It was a slap in the face.

Politics and weather, a good combonation...

Terpboy said...

e.h.

I agree...why bother?

julee: you asked a question about hurricane/winter storm correlation.

My VERY quick, VERY informal look at the records from NWS tells me that after a heavy hurricane season we either WILL have a snowy winter or we WON'T.

Winter of 1995-96, with double-digit winter events followed one of the worst hurricane seasons on record.

Winter of 2002-2003, eight events, followed a season of only four hurricanes.

I used NCDC (National Climate Data Center)

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms

And limited my queries to MARYLAND ONLY then only looked at the zone codes for BALTIMORE COUNTY ONLY.

Maybe some other reader can add some more details. I feel certain that e.h. boston will be able to tell how many meters of snow he got those winters (pure envy, mind you!)

Enjoy da' summah!!

Sorry-

Let's let Foot handle this one

E.H. Boston said...

Emily is surely Dennis' wicked younger sister with winds of 115 mph and probably higher when the 11 pm advisory comes out. This time tomorrow night she should be sporting winds of 130 to 140 mph winds!!!

Looks like it is going to hit the Yacatan (sp?) of Mexico and then go back over the g.o.m. and still maintain hurricane strength and then hit Mexico again for a double blow.

Aside from that the Red Sox just blew a game to the Yankees it looks like, Shilling first pitching in relief in the 9th for the first time since ???? (see if you can figure this fact out TB, all you need is a year, 2045 ex.,)

Red Sox will only be up 1.5 gms. over the Yanks now barring a miracle and I have not even seen the Orioles score yet...so bad times up here in beantown.

Terpboy said...

OK, e.h.- I like the Sox, BUT ONLY when dem O's is down...and the Orioles seem to holding up OK...so far.

Schilling is relief? Does Pawtucket count?

You were right...Emily 125 mph winds...but MY guess (after the Yucatan) is Corpus Christi...

E.H. Boston said...

TB-

The last time in the Majors was in 2002, and before that was in 1992. FYI

Look out south Texas, the Yachatan may not take much steam out of what will become "Emily the Terrible."

Boston 49-39 --
Baltimore 48-40 1.0
New York 47-40 1.5

The O's are hanging in there. The Sox better get their act together, and SOON.

Terpboy said...

"Emily, where ever I may find her.." (Name THAT tune)

Cat 4!

South Texas...stock up the plywood!

Palmiero = 2,999!

E.H. Boston said...

Palmiero = 3,000 club

Terpboy said...

3,001!

Sox 17-1...WHOA!

Emily 145mph 942mb

E.H. Boston said...

Sox down 7-4 today!

Emily on the UPDATE at 11:45 (weather.gov) is now at 150 mph 940mb!!!

E.H. Boston said...

HURRICANE EMILY UPDATE

EMILY NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 155 MPH. IT IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A CATEGORY 5 STORM!!!

THIS IS TRULY AMAZING!!!

IT IS ONLY MID JULY AND ALREADY WE HAVE SEEN DENNIS WHOM PEAKED AT 150 MPH BRIEFLY, AND NOW EMILY IS PEAKING IF NOT YET PEAKED AT 155 MPH.

WHAT TYPE OF MONSTERS WILL WE BE FACING IN THE END OF AUGUST RIGHT THROUGH THE WHOLE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, EXACTLY THE SAME TIME WHEN THE TARGET FOR THESE CATASTROPHIC HURRICANES WILL SHIFT FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE EAST COAST LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR A DIRECT HIT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ANY OF THE MAJOR EAST COAST CITIES INCLUDING...WASHINGTON DC, BALTIMORE, PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK CITY, AND BOSTON...CAUSING MASSIVE FLOODING ON THE COAST WITH ENORMOUS WAVES AND TIDAL SURGE.

ANOTHER MILESTONE HAS BEEN REACHED IN THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON HAS BEEN REACHED...WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT.

CAN'T WAIT UNTIL MR. FOOT COMES BACK...BET HE DIDN'T THINK WE'D BE DEALING WITH A CAT 5 AT THE END OF HIS VACATION. THIS TIME WE DIDN'T GET THAT 10-14 DAY BREAK IN THE ACTION PERIOD WHICH WAS ANTICIPATED.

Mr. Foot said...

I am back and boy you all sure did have a nice time chatting.

We had a lovely time at Cape May Point, NJ.

I am surprised Emily is knocking on Cat 5. I had a feeling it might early in the week while watching TWC.

Break in the action? Yes and No.. at least for mainland U.S. is it a break, but technically speaking the tropics have not let up in intensity. We have had a named storm in play since July 3. In the 45 or so days since the season started, there have been at least 23 days where one or more named storms was in play. That is more like mid September than mid July.

A new update Sunday, with a recap of the rights/wrongs of Dennis, where we go with Emily, and when Franklin will show up.

Terpboy said...

2345EDT

155 mph
930mb

Welcome back, Mr. F...

Mr.B said...

Hi Mr. Foot this is zak from myersville. I am in johnstown, pa visiting my relatives. Its very dry in johnstown we keep getting missed with the rain from dennis remains on both sides. Very dry and brown grass, when do you think we can see some good rain here?

E.H. Boston said...

No sign of Franklin out there yet. Emily looks like she is going to hit Mexico twice, once as a Cat 4 storm and once as a Cat 3 storm.

Sox and Yanks in a little over 2 hours...good luck to your O's.

E.H. Boston said...

NOT!!!

GO SOX!!!

I am not that nice, I am a die hard Red Sox fan.

Terpboy said...

Thanks...I think..

Some of the hotshots have been calling for Em to get seriously degraded while passing over the Yucatan.

It may emerge as a 1 or even a TS.