Wednesday, July 6, 2005

UNTHINKABLE
Could this be "The One" for New Orleans ?
As for the Florida Panhandle...
talk about hitting a guy when he's down.


UNTHINKABLE


"The One" refers to an unofficial moniker assigned to certain types of storms that spell certain disaster for specific areas. My family, with our 100 year old cottage on the northern Chesapeake, saw Isabel as a Category 5 making the dreaded turn northwest. They collectively gulped, said to each other, "this could be the one" and began putting furniture waaayy up in the attic 5 days before the storm arrived. That move turned out to be the right one, and though life for us will be better in the long run, it sure has been painful in the short run for many people still recovering from Isabel, Ivan, Charley, Francis and Jeanne. Can you just imagine how someone living in Pensacola must feel looking at this forecast? The Pensacola News Journal is already on the story.


"The One" for New Orleans is known simply as "The Hurricane." This has been long feared to be the storm to end all storms, and could end the city as we know it. That sounds very alarmist if you have not read the Army Corps of Engineers study on what a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm would do to the Big Easy if it approached from the worst possible angle..the southeast. Let's hope and pray Dennis gets menaced by Fidel's stogies and loses his mojo over Cuba before reaching the Gulf. The TPC (Tropical Prediction Center) is resigned to the likelihood that
Dennis will be the first major hurricane of the season. The New Orleans Times-Picayune has been temporarily disrupted from Cindy, but did post this brief article today.


As for Cindy, she has plans to become a major rainmaker in the Southeast, southern Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and all the way into New England. Friday and Saturday will be dominated by tropical downpours and very muggy conditions that will remind you of, well, the tropics. Dennis will start making bigger news once he reaches hurricane strength, expected later today.

Until then, here's some big news. I thought I'd just take a glimpse at what the East Atlantic is up to. And what to my wondering eyes did appear, but a giant tropical wave with an apparent outflow, dear. TPC is not saying much about this yet, in fact the image shown is only the last frame in an 8 frame satellite loop, so this wave could easily fade in the next few hours. That aside, this is the most impressive looking tropical wave I've seen emerge off the African coast since Gloria. It is awfully symmetrical for being a wave that just left the coast. I'm sure there have been other waves that looked just as ominous, but for early July, this one sure does look interesting. The next update on all this at 5 PM following the TPC advisory.

Atlantic 7-6-05



9 comments:

Terpboy said...

THIS IS A COPY OF A POST FROM THE 5 JULY EDITION OF F SQUARED (I wanted to forward the addresses to those who might be interested) tb


julee & e.h. (and anyone else)-
You probably know these sites already, but in case you don't...
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
GFS/AVN has heavy rains hitting the Maryland area as early as 12Z Friday...with the Boston area to follow.
Nice to be back, all...I've missed reading everyone's posts.
terpboy
9:11 AM

ps-10:10 AM

In case anyone is not aware, most, if not all, of New Orleans is below sea level. They have about 3 dozen pumping stations that can handle (I'm told) somewhere around 1.5 inches of rain per hour. Anything more than that will begin to fill up the city.

Notice I said nothing about any storm surge.

TB

Mr. Foot said...

Terp:

Thanks for the links, stunning how much rain this system could produce over midatl. TPC hinted at possible redevel off Delmarva but not into TS status again. Just like Gaston wasn't a TS when it pummeled Richmond last year.

E.H. Boston said...

Our morning tropical rains have subsided here in Boston...we really needed it too. Everyone's lawns around here were starting to turn brown and die. (dormant...would be the correct term I believe.)

Anyway, highs tomorrow will only be in the mid to upper 60's...What a change. You gotta love New England.

Finally, Dennis looks to be a CAT 3 storm, maybe 4 at landfall! Good luck to all the weary residents of the Gulf Coast, because its natures turn to flex its muscles over you because this past winter we got anywhere from 90" of snow in Boston to 110"+ of snow in Worcester. (not that I am complaining)

E. H. Boston

E.H. Boston said...

ALWAYS have to mention SNOW in my postings.

EVEN IF IT IS JULY 6TH.

Alan Sullivan said...

I'm looking for Dennis to follow Ivan's track just south of Jamaica and toward the Yucatan Channel. Current time lapse photos show due west motion. But recurvature will start in the Gulf. New Orleans could be at risk. So could Houston, or Pensacola. This will be a storm to watch.

There's a pretty strong mid-ocean trough right now that could pull the new Cape Verde wave north and keep it at sea, but if it slips underneath, it could spell more trouble for the US. Amazing activity for so early.

Mr. Foot said...

Hello Alan! Thank you for your comments.

Yes I noticed on your site your idea of a more southward curvature around Jamaica and I agree. As you know, it is the frictional effects of the CDO being in such close proximity to an island. AS you remember well, Ivan did just that..bounced around Jamaica and the tip of Cuba TO THE SOUTH. The telltale sign will be what happens with Jamaica, if we see an Ivanesque bounce, it might spell relief for Pensacola but doom for New Orleans, especially with the Pac NW short wave digging in at Day 3. An exciting albeit nervous week ahead.

Terpboy said...

Uh-h-h, I know I'm the rookie here, but check out

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/met7/

Those sure look like rotational arms to me...could it be?

terpboy

E.H. Boston said...

FLASH FLOOD WARNING...

Right now the great city of Boston is under a FLASH FLOOD WARNING with many roads (and basements)flooded as I know that first hand. The tropical rains reformed when it looked like they were over and I would say we have gotten another three quarters to one inch of rain since then to bring our total to around 2 inches. (equal to 2 feet of snow, had to throw that in)

Who needs Cindy or Dennis, we are experiencing our own tropical madness up here. We have not seen rain like this for WEEKS...

Everything has to balance I guess, including the weather, especially.

EH Boston

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks for the neat satellite link Terp. I added to the links in the right column.

Like the oft and over-used line in the Star Wars movies:

"I have a bad feeling about this."