Thursday, July 7, 2005

VERY, VERY BIG TROUBLE

Very Big Trouble

In no way do I mean to ignore the terrible disaster in London. It is horrific and truly barbaric as Tony Blair has said. Our prayers go out to the families of the victims and the people of England, who has withstood many trials and will overcome this one. It somehow makes natural disasters a little easier to deal with, because at least something like a hurricane you have time to prepare. No one could have prepared themselves for what London commuters faced this morning, and I hope the many workers will confidently go about their business tomorrow as best they can, to show the terrorists that the battle may have been lost, but the war will be won.

In regards to my predictions for Dennis, I do not intend to come across as alarmist. If you have read the planner's reports about what a major hurricane strike can do to New Orleans, then you would know that my estimates are conservative. Anyone living in SE Louisiana, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi or the Florida panhandle should have already begun their preparations. If you have family in New Orleans or the surrounding areas, I highly recommend contacting them and making sure they are planning to leave immediately. The botched evacuation of Ivan and Georges in 1998 should remind many that because of the limit escape routes, and the proximity of Lake Ponchatrain, flooding from surge and rain will occur hours if not 12 or more hours before the storm arrives. The concern is that thousands trapped in traffic jams will drown in their cars, and thousands more who decided to stay in the city will be cut off from rescue for several days. These are not my imaginations, these are real scenarios examined and discussed by city planners. Now the nightmare scenario may be coming true, as I said in last week's post: "The End of Innocence Is Upon Us."

9 comments:

James said...

Scary scary stuff!

I'd be running NOW if I were anywhere near New Orleans!

:O

linda said...

Mr. Foot, is this your favorite forecasting time, or is the snow? LM>bucks county

linda said...

I enjoy watching for both.lm bucks county

Julee said...

Oh no, Mr. Foot! MSNBC is predicting that Dennis could be a Cat 5 by the time it enters the Gulf.
This is scary.

Terpboy said...

Two questions for anyone:

a) When and where was the last Cat 5 to strike the U.S.? (AS a Cat 5)

b) How many Cat 5's have struck the U.S. since records have been kept?

Answers later.

Terpboy

E.H. Boston said...

Wow!!!

Hurricane Dennis has max sustained winds of 150 mph.

Its central pressure is all the way down to 937 mb.

Do you remember Boston's Jan. 22 BLIZZARD?

Well, if you don't it gave 2-3ft. of snow to much of eastern MA with winds as high as 82 mph on the Cape and Islands...

Do you recall its LOWEST central pressure as it went to the south of Nantucket as a CLASSIC NOR'EASTER?

Well it was a mere 980 mb in comparison to the 937 mb of Hurricane Dennis.

That just puts things into a little perspective at how much stronger and deadlier these tropical storms, hurricanes, are than the storms we have known to love, at least most of us, in the winter months...hopefully Cuba will weaken the storm a little bit so less damage will be done somewhere on the Gulf coast, especially the panhandle of Florida, as that is where Dennis looks to be setting his eyes on.

Good luck to all down there...you are most surely going to need it.

E.H. Boston

Mr. Foot said...

Sorry for the lsck of update, working on it right now.

Answers:

1. Linda.. hurricanes or winter storms? Tough one. I enjoy forecasting hurricanes because I have more free time to do it, versus winter storms I am restricted in time because of school. I do noe at all enjoy the damage they cause, but I am fascinated by the atmospheric dynamics of such an amazing thing as a tropical cyclone.

2. Terp: Last Cat 5 to strike US was Andrew 1992

Cat 5 History: Technically 2, Andrew and also Camille in 69. However the Labor Day Storm of 1935 in the Keys was considered an unoffical Cat 5.

3. Julee.. I have been away from the TV this Am, just learned Denni the Menni is now at 150 mph. Geez oh whiz, who would have thought it could get this strong? If time over Cuba is short, and it passes over the narrowest piece of land by Isle of Youth, a Cat 5 in the Gulf is something we have not seen since Camille, I believe. Good God, I would be terrified and get on the first plane to Maine.

Terpboy said...

Can't fool the master!

Many folks don't know that Andrew was upgraded in 2002 when they found a flaw in the 1992 measurements based on new research from the devices (GPS dropwindsondes) that the hurricane hunters drop from their planes.

Camille was clocked at 189.7 mph just prior to landfall.

The "Keys Storm" on Labor Day, 1935, supposedly had gusts of well over 200 mph. A train had been dispatched (belatedly) from Miami to pick up WW I vets who were working on a Public Works Project in the Keys and got caught there. The hurricane knocked the train over off. (But not the locomotive). Many of the vets and conchs (Key natives) were killed.

TB

NeedaSnowday said...

Greetings All!
I havent been here since the winter! Just checking the path of The Menace .. seems to be a scary situation! Thanks Mr. Foot for keeping the info posted!