Friday, August 5, 2005

DEVELOPMENT OF IRENE SIGNALS
PHASE 2 OF HURRICANE SEASON
CAROLINAS NEXT TARGET FOR LANDFALLS

Irene Map 1

Greetings from Armenia! It is Friday and we are preparing for our long trip home on Saturday. As I write this, it is midnight along the East Coast, and you are all asleep…unaware that we have our newest tropical depression. I believe this signals the major shift we have been looking for to indicate the next phase of the hurricane season. The name will be Irene, and it is forecast to reach hurricane strength within 5 days or less.


Internet access here is very slow, and makes for updating this site quite time consuming, so I will keep this brief and get to the point. I have posted a series of graphics to illustrate where this storm fits in context with other storms which have formed in the “Hurricane Alley” of the tropical Atlantic. The first is an Infrared East Atlantic Satellite view of TD # 9 (soon to be Irene). Cloud pattern is somewhat disorganized, but as TPC notes in today's discussion this system will be moving into warmer waters of near 28 C, and a low shear environment. For fahrenheit reference, 30 C is 86 F, so this water is like "jet fuel for hurricanes" as described by ABC news. With no clouds of African dust to impede development, ( as was the case with other systems over the last two weeks), Irene should have no trouble reaching hurricane status within the time frame expected.

Irene 1

What concerns me about this system are similarities between it's current/forecasted track, and those of storms which are ingrained in our consciousness, such as Isabel 2003, Hugo 1989, and Gloria 1985. For my Armaggedon Weather fans out, this is not to say that Irene will become a catastrophic Hurricane X to pummel the entire east coast. The point to be made is that the formation of Irene in this area of the Atlantic at this stage of the summer may very well indicate that the hurricane season is on fast forward. What we would expect to see in mid September would seem to be occuring in August. While Cape Verde type systems can and have developed in this region this early, historical records as shown below indicate few have followed the traditional paths of classic late August to mid September storms. If Irene follows an atypical path toward the east coast this year, this will be the indicator we are headed into a very busy and destructive phase of the season to last well into September.

Irene Map 2

NOAA's forecast for remainder of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season was recently updated. Ominous and sobering, it includes a straight-forward analysis of why they expect another 11-14 storms, with another 7-9 hurricanes inside that range, and 3-5 more MAJOR hurricanes inside that range. Consider that in 2003, we reached the letter I with Isabel in mid September. Now in 2005 we have reached Irene over a month before the historical mid point of September 10, which is the date tropical cyclone climatology show is when the tropics are most active from year to year. ANOTHER 11-14 storms means that 2005 could go down as one of the three most busy seasons on record, challenging the 19 named storms in 1995, and 21 named storms in 1933.

NOAA 2005 forecast update

Gloria in September 1985 formed a few degrees north of where Irene developed, and this storm went on to just below Category 5 before throttling back to a 2 while coming onshore in Long Island. Compare Gloria's track with computer model projected paths of Irene.

Irene Map 3

Then compare Gloria and Hugo to Irene. Although these storms were September classics, the theory being presented here is that this year, the September pattern will be observed in August. Irene's projected path in the first 5 days looks to resemble Gloria

Irene Map 4

WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN FOR THE EAST COAST IN AUGUST?

1. This will be a busy month coming up. Over the next 2 weeks, the NAO is forecasted to drift slightly positive and then remain netural, which has been an indicator in the past of East Coast landfalls being more likely. A positive NAO means the Azores High and the Labrador Low are in somewhat of a retreat, moving away from North America, leaving the coast more exposed to wandering tropical systems. A negative NAO can act as a shield, tightening the jet stream across the western Atlantic and redirecting storms out to sea, as we saw with Franklin and Harvey. Both storms occured during a negative phase of the NAO.

2. A major hurricane making landfall this month along the East Coast is highly probable, and concern is focused on the Carolinas. If the Bermuda High / Western Atlantic ridge slackens and drifts east, it will open a channel toward the Carolina coast.

3. Sea surface temperatures continue their upward climb into the record books. A glance at the current SST anomaly map reveals that most of the tropical and western Atlantic right to the East Coast population centers is primed to deliver optimal water conditions for an approaching storm. El Nino continues to be an El Nono as the area of below normal equatorial water temperatures off Peru continues to expand west ward. In the coming month, this will serve to negate any strong regional shear that is usually observed in the westerlies during moderate El Nino events.

THE FINAL WORD(s)? I believe the period August 15-September 15 will play out like last year, with focus on the East Coast instead of Florida. Who would have predicted 4 landfalls in Florida within 6 weeks? Considering that, 4 landfalls on the east coast, with 2 major hurricanes in 1 month appears to be just as possible.

THE NEXT UPDATE will be on Sunday, August 7 once my family and I have safely returned home from Armenia.

POST FROM SATURDAY, JULY 23
CALM BEFORE THE STORM(S)

Atlantic Basin 7-23-05

This is my last post for 2 weeks as the family and I are heading out to Eastern Europe...Armenia to be exact, until August 6. "WHY ARE YOU GOING THERE?" You might ask? Simple, really. I'm gettin' out of Dodge now before the big storms hit. Actually my wife's parents are working on a U.S. government consulting project with the Department of Agriculture in Yerevan, Armenia. Naturally they've been chomping at the bit to see their grand-daugher, so off we will go. This trip comes at a good time, as it would seem the Atlantic is quieting down for a few hours. Franklin APPEARS to be getting caught up in the frontal boundary, and will be wisked out to sea, I hope. The large disturbance over the Yucatan APPEARS to have lost it's MoJo heading into Campeche. Yes I see the waves coming off Africa and each has the potential to develop. As predicted, I believe we are heading into a 10 day to 2 week quiet period as the Atlantic readjusts to a negative NAO and a weak ENSO signal. Typhoons striking in the Far East will also have fallout in our part of the atmosphere, as Accuweather and Government forecasters have identified teleconnective trends like this in the past. When something major halfway around world happens, like a typhoon, it usually means we will see a mirror image of that occur on this side of the globe. That means 10 days or so from now the tropics will be switching into what may well become the most active period on record... yet to come. I trust you all will watch everything closely and keep the comments alive and kicking. See you next month. Sincerely, Mr. Foot.

FRANKLIN...LOOKS FAMILIAR

Franklin 1
PROJECTED PATH OF FRANKLIN through TUESDAY

Franklin 1
LOOKS FRIGHTENINGLY FAMILIAR TO JEANNE

Jeanne map 1

AFTERNOON UPDATE: Looks like we're in for some rough weather coming up. What are the chances that Franklin flips back around and heads along the same path as Jeanne... or maybe will recurve along the coast like Alex in 2004. Another TPC update at 8PM. I am interested in seeing their discussion on this. With the NAO tanking, Franklin has three choices...spin around then head for Florida, hang out in the Atlantic for a while, or head up the East Coast.
Post from earlier today:
QUIETER? FOR NOW. DONE? NO WAY

Where's the break

Or maybe the headline should be.. "Where's the BREAK?" modeled after the 1980's Wendy's commercial, "Where's the BEEF?" Concern is growing over this area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas, and the conventional wisdom is that it should develop soon, get named as Franklin, and then either stall, drift slowly toward northwest Florida, or simply north. The North Atlantic Oscillation has turned sharply negative, which may portends a return to cooler weather for the Northeast, and this is playing right into the forecast posted earlier this week. I explain at the bottom of this post that a negative NAO will act as a deflector, protecting the Mid Altantic and points north from landfall. It also means the timing of this is such that when if the NAO stays negative a while, it may flip back to positive by mid August, just in time for a recurving Altantic storm feeding on the above normal waters to take aim for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

2005 Hurricane Map
ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE FORECAST
MID JULY TO MID SEPTEMBER
If you want to know the basis behind this forecast, read on through the analysis section below. Better get some coffee or a soda first though, it might take a while to read all of it.

TO END OF JULY: Tropics quiet down, one perhaps two minor systems, any landfall is unlikely to be in the Gulf coast, and more likely to be along Eastern Florida, the Carolina coast or even Bermuda.

AUG 1-15: Landfalls shift from the Gulf and Caribbean to the Carolinas. Five named storms, two hurricanes, three tropical storms.


AUG 15-SEP 15: Landfalls shift from Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Five or six named storms, two major hurricanes. Then a brief quiet period to October 1.

ANALYSIS AND BACKGROUND ON THE FORECAST

The first Act of the hurricane season is drawing to a close. I am relieved that Dennis did not strike New Orleans as once feared. It is too early to say if the north Gulf is in the clear, but in a tongue-in-cheek way of looking at it, recent odds would suggest they've had their "2-3 direct hits for this year." The dry humor intended here is that 2004 standards, that part of Florida SHOULD be done with storms, right?

I had originally expected Dennis to be the final chapter in the "Early Summer Gulf" stage, but it appears the Atlantic ridge is persisting farther west, stronger and for longer than I thought. This is enabling Emily to stay on it's no-holds-barred west-north-west train to the Yucatan. Looking back, it is obvious to see why this is happening. The interaction of Dennis leftovers in the central U.S. in conjunction with the Atlantic ridge is what has drenched the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast with the monsoon-like rains recently. Anybody with a radar image can plainly see how the remnant Low of Dennis and the ridge are working to feed a constant flow of tropical moisture up the Eastern Seaboard. With El Nino essentially a La Nada, the westerlies which would have sent Dennis and Emily curving out to sea are not there. Nature abhors a vacuum, so the more powerful Atlantic easterlies have taken over the pattern, driving Emily into Mexico.

My concern comes for the next two Acts in this play...the early-mid August stage and the early -mid September stage. Looking at the current SST indicates we have a big hot tub out there in the Atlantic, waiting to be tapped. As you can plainly see, there is this tropical train of warm water extending from west Africa all the way to the U.S. East Coast. As ABC News reported last week, that's the "jet fuel" for hurricanes that is giving rise to multiple Category 3's and above so early this year.

SST 7-18-05

"BIG DEAL", you say. "It's summer dude. Hello Foot? Ocean water is W-A-R-M." Well thank you Captain Obvious. That's just the thing, beevis. If the ocean is tres warm NOW, just think about what it will be LATER. If that water goes undisturbed during our upcoming 2-3 week lull, is 3-5 degrees above normal possible by September? I'm not a climate expert, but I would say it is not out of the realm of possibility. For all my diehard End Times Forecasting Fans out there, the really interesting (and disturbing) thing to consider is a comparison of today's Atlantic SST's to July 2003. Here's how temperature anomalies were reported 2 months before Isabel. Do you see the differences?

SST 7-17-03

I hear your coffee cup clattering on the table now. What are you, nervous or something? You mean you're concerned that Atlantic sea surface temperatures along the East Coast then were a lot COOLER then they are now? Why would that be a problem? It only means that what's happening in the Gulf and Caribbean could shift to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. by Labor Day, and then to New England by late summer. A couple more Category 3 landfalls and we're done, then off to winter storm season. Simple enough, don't you think?

2003 Hurricane Map
Oops, didn't mean to let that cat out of the bag just yet. But, my Armaggedon Weather fans would have it no other way, so let's just take the gloves off and show you what is possible in Acts 2 and 3 later this summer. The map above is the 2003 season...no landfalling major hurricanes, tracks were kind of disorganized and not that memorable, expect for Isabel and Juan, which pummeled Hailfax, Nova Scotia in October with surprising intensity. My family and I really thought that Isabel was going to be "the one." I'm sure many in Nova Scotia feel Juan was "the one" for them. This implies a Cat 3 landfalling right up the Chesapeake or into a heavily populated metropolitan area. For people in North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland, even a basic Cat 2 with winds of 105 mph were enough to disrupt the lives of millions and many have not finished recovering. It was not catastrophic, but it was definitely a very very bad storm. And for the doomsday analysts out there, I believe Isabel was actually a rehearsal.

2004 Hurricane Map

Then there was the historic and catastrophic 2004 season. See how the landfalls are concentrated over the southeast U.S.? As if you forgot that soon, which I doubt you did. Only Danielle, Lisa, Karl and Otto hung out in the Atlantic. Everyone else took aim for land, or at least formed near it and went for it when possible. Looking at that map would suggest a fairly strong Atlantic ridge was in place most of the summer, directing most storms toward the southeast U.S. Now let's compare to the historic 1995 season, which then led into the notable 95/96 winter storm season with the kickoff Blizzard of January 96.

1995 Hurricane Map

You can probably already see the pattern. The Atlantic ridge mostly lost out over influence of the westerlies because of a strong El Nino in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Although every single depression that formed was eventually named, the westerlies were strong enough to deflect most of the damaging storms out to sea. A couple minor systems struck Florida, but nothing of significance. The importance of this season was that it had the warmest Atlantic ocean water temperatures on record, and thus 19 named storms.

So what's the connection and the End Times Forecast? What I see happening is a combination of the 1995 and 2004 seasons. Imagine how we would deal if we get the kind of landfalls in 05 we saw with 04, but with a frequency like that of 95...and shifted farther north. Who would have thought 2,3, 4 major hurricanes could strike Florida in such a short span of time. Suppose that same ferocity is shifted to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic?

7-17-05 NAO

How do I know this? It's the North Atlantic Oscillation. When a weak (meaning neutral or negative NAO) is observed in the North Atlantic, landfalls along the Gulf coast are more likely. When the NAO shifts into a strong, or positive phase, pressure systems move in such a fashion to allow hurricanes to recurve along the east coast and intensify as they do so. Throw in abnormally high water temperatures, the climatologically favored high time for hurricanes (mid August to mid September), and you have the makings of another 3-4 hurricanes making landfall from South Carolina to New England, with 1-2 of those being Category 3 or higher.

(Posted on 7/18) The NAO is forecasted to dip negative for the next 2-3 weeks, which is the smoking gun for my anticipated quiet period in the tropics. The recent heat we've had throughout the U.S. may not subside a whole lot, but it should ease back to normal somewhat. The danger would be if the atmosphere reverses course, and the second half of July is much cooler than normal. That would set the stage for an above normal August, right when the NAO would flip back to positive, just in time for the tropics to get going again.

So that's the forecast. I will be going back through to add some links in the text to my sources of the background. For the powderhounds laying lazily by the fan dreaming about snow, I can tell you there is a correlation between frequency and location of landfalling hurricanes and the outcome of the winter storm season. But we'll get to that in August.

EMILY WRAP-UP: Many were concerned Emily would strike southern Texas. Hurricane warnings were posted for the southern Texas coast in anticipation of strong winds, which did materialize. But the Atlantic ridge and interaction with the northern Mexico mountains proved enough frictional force to slow Emily and direct her west once nearing the coast. This is not much consolation for those in Mexcio facing torrential rains and catastrophic flooding, but at least we did not have to face a 1980 Hurricane Allen type situation. Due to their experience with 1988's Hurricane Gilbert Cancun and Cozumel were well prepared this time and that limited loss of life.

If you want to read previous posts, please visit the archives section. I am presently unable to have the site display more than one post or the formatting becomes unstable. If you are a blogger or html guru and have a suggestion on how to fix this, please post a note in the comments.

63 comments:

Mr. Foot said...

Hello Zak... visiting in Johnstown PA eh? I also have family and relatives out that way, sort of. A report from Lee at the Western Observatory in Altoona PA is that the grass is browner than all get out. The best you'll get are hit and miss thunderstorms. Dennis is done and he's left behind a juicy tropical atmosphere that will continue fueling these popcorn variety storms over the northeast for the next few days.

Mr. Foot said...

Terpboy..

I was wondering if someone would consider the potential for Emily to drop back to TS. Given what happened to Dennis, that could easily happen. The landmass is wider, but Emily is traveling faster. I don't doubt it dropping back to 1, but will recharge back to 2 and probably 3. I for one am hoping and praying for the quiet period as we got water in the basement from Dennis-related thunderstorms. I need a rain free day to get stuff dried out!

Now I'm off to the 103 degree heat index to hang carpet.

Julee said...

Mr. Foot
Hope your vacation was delightful! Glad you're back -- we NEED you!
I just got back from 3 days in Pittsburgh. Yesterday we drove through TORRENTIAL downpours in the city. The water was like a rushing river near the curbs, with 2 or 3 inches right in the middle of the street. More severe storms again today driving home through the mountains. Were those storms STILL leftovers from Dennis? Where is that energy coming from?

James said...

"The map above is the 2003 season...no landfalling major hurricanes, tracks were kind of disorganized and not that memorable, expect for Isabel of course."

FYI, Hurricane Juan struck my home of Nova Scotia as a strong Category 2 in late September 2003. Killed 8 people, caused tens of millions of dollars in damage, and disrupted many lives.

Photo 1

Photo 2

Photo 3

Photo 4

Mr. Foot said...

James...

I stand corrected and you are so right. I was wrong to exclude Juan as a classic late season storm, and the terrible damage it caused in Nova Scotia. My class and I followed it's track, and then by coincidence my brother in law and his wife stopped there shortly after on a cruise and saw the damage first hand.

I am sorry for overlooking this disaster and hope that you, along with many others, will continue to keep me accountable on this site.

I will revise the post to reflect the real story.

E.H. Boston said...

Tracking some NASTY thunderstorms over NNW MA at the current time, where they are ever so slowly moving ENE toward central and eastern MA.

Current dopplar radar estimates that the rain is falling at the rate of 3" to 4.5" per hour in a very small localized area, with storm total rainfall amounts of anywhere between 5" and 8" of rain, no doubt they are under a flash flood warning.

Closer to home the dew points are in the mid to upper 70's and the temps are in the mid to upper 80's making it feel more like the upper 90's to lower 100's, UNDER OVERCAST CONDITIONS!!!

It is the tropics out there...crazy New England weather at its best.

E.H. Boston said...

Rainfall amounts are now EXCEEDING 10" in the localized area near the Conneticut River, and it seems that the storms are gaining a little momentum and could hold together all the way here to Boston. I will let you know if we get any flooding.

Meanwhile, I see that it is 92 and RAINING with a heat index of 104 where you guys are. HOW MISERABLE THAT MUST FEEL!

Good luck with the heat, as up here in Boston we are getting Special Weather Statements warning us of our first official heat wave that should start tomorrow and end either Thursday or Friday. (need 3 consecutive days of 90 deg or higher)...might as well make this HEAT note worthy.

Terpboy said...

I Love It!

Mondo Basso bleeps up summertime!

He described the 92 mph Hurricane Emily as a Cat 2, complete with achoo-weather graphics!

Sox down, O's up...
Evil empire in 1st place...

Julee said...

T-Boy!

Did you *have* to mention Bass-o-Matic?
His brain is just taking the summer off, as opposed to the winter ... when his brain takes the winter off.

Mr. Foot,

I'm hoping that your rebound theory is about to swing into action and we get a few weeks of non-life threatening temperatures -- or doesn't that work in the heat of summer?
Oh, and IS there a correlation between number of hurricanes and number of blizzards?

E.H. Boston said...

Looking for a snowy forecast and I found this forecast for all the powderhounds out there...

FORECAST FOR
BASE ARTURO PRAT, ANTARCTICA

Tonight: Lo 24
Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy 29/26
Thursday: Snow/Wind 31/25
Friday: DIDO
Saturday: DIDO

Today in BOSTON: HEAT INDEX 100-105!

3-4 more months until the first snow...3-4 more months until the first snow...

Enjoy the summer heat.

Terpboy said...

Sorry jules-

I lost my head...watching him blither in the winter is bad enough...

Julee said...

E.H.!!!!!! * *
* *
THANK YOU for the Antarctica forecast! Those are MY kind of temps! *
*
*Makes me want to rustle up a nice comforter and some hot chocolate. *
* *
Think I'll go to see the "March of the Penguins" this week - THAT ought to cool me off! * *
*

T-Boy

Give yourself a break - watch BAL for the duration! You can go back to suffering when school starts.

Tom said...

Nothing wrong with heat -- it's the humidity that blows!

E.H. Boston said...

They have just named what will become Franklin Depression #6. In the visible satillite, it almost looks like the thing already has a defined eye. Amazing how it came out of nowhere.

Waiting for the NWS to put out an advisory and tell us where they think this thing might go.

Terpboy said...

Soon as I saw that 3 day "cone" earlier...all I could think of was "Jeanne, Jeanne, the dancin' machine"

E.H. Boston said...

Well, as Mr. Foot said, we are going into an extended quiet period, once Franklin and the G storm, I think Gert, disappear. Until then, lets talk about baseball, or at least I will.

The Sox are playing the Sox today, the Red Sox and White Sox of coarse with the 4 game series tied at a game a piece. Furthermore, the trading deadline is approaching and many teams are still in contention, at the moment, (like the O's) and this could be a quiet deadline.

Hopefully, Billy Wagner joins my Sox and not the other Sox (of Chicago, if you are not too smart)

Good luck to the O's, hopefully you guys can get some more pitching and bury the Yankees a 3rd place finish and knock them out of the playoffs for the first time in over a decade.

Enjoy the weather too.

Drun53 said...

Enjoy Armenia!

BTW, I'm 100% armenian! That is why I am so intrigued by this trip. But technically, since I'm Armenian, Im am actually asian, not european.

E.H. Boston said...

Enjoy Armenia

P.S. Where did everybody go? On vacation, too?

GO RED SOX 54-44 (1st AL EAST)

Terpboy said...

Been watching the O's do a nosedive, cleaning up a 30', 16" thick limb that decided to fall out of it's tree during some heavy rain yesterday AM, an Mom's back in the hospital..

hold down the fort!

E.H. Boston said...

Sox and Schilling fell apart last night losing to the DEVIL RAYS 4-3 in the bottom of the 10th inning.

95 degrees today with a heat index of 102...

90 tomorrow with a h.i. of 101

THEN 70-75 on Thursday...REFRESHING!

linda said...

Mr. Foot, Have a wonderful vacation. Any chance of hurricanes hitting the Jersey coast? Not that I would look forward to it, but they really are long overdue, or perhaps just lucky. LM BUCKS COUNTY

Mr. Foot said...

Hello from Armenia! We are enjoying the wonderful sights of Yerevan and will be going to the villages later this week. Not getting much sleep, but taking a lot of pictures and having a lot of fun. Hey Red Sox fans....how much is a cone of soft ice cream at the Stadium? Can you beat 25 cents? I bet not. That is the price of a cone of vanilla here at some stores. 420 drams = 1 USD, and today we had ice cream for 100 drams. Haven't checked the tropics but I hope they are quiet as I am tired. Will try to do an update this week sometime.

E.H. Boston said...

At Fenway, a cone of ice cream will cost you...dearly. Haven't made it to Fenway in the past few years because getting tickets means giving them the deed to your house these days just to get decent seats.

I believe a little bowl of ice cream will cost about 7 or 8 bucks and a 16oz. bottle of water will cost about $4 on cool days and one day when I went and the temperature was about 100, the water cost $8!!! For a 16 oz. bottle of Poland Spring. Talk about a rip off!!! Thats why I go see the Single A Lowell Spinners, tickets are 6 bucks and all the seats are great, and ice cream there costs about 2 bucks and water: a buck twenty five...still not like Armenia, however.

Mr. Foot, enjoy your trip.
PS- Is it hot in Armenia right now, because we are sweltering here in Boston...last I checked it was 93, down from 94 last hour.

Julee said...

MR. FOOT!!!!!!! Who KNEW you could write to us from ARMENIA!!!!!!! Who knew you WOULD?!!!
Let's hear it for you and the internet!

I am also interested in the weather in Armenia. What a fascinating vacation!
How do they feel about Amercians there?

You chose the right weeks to leave here!
Ninety-six obnoxious degrees.

Thank you for taking time out to write to us!

E.H. Boston said...

Matt Clement is down, hit in the head by a nasty line drive by TB player Carl Crawford. It looks like he got hit near the right ear. Right now, we hope he is okay, and we will think about baseball tomorrow.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Still around. Just in hybernation mode until the Big Kahuna! Hope you all are having a great summer! Will check in once in a while. No chance of a blizzard this week as temps struggle to get below a 100! Once in a while I polish the snowblower. Been busy putting back together the snowblower and taking the ark apart for camp fires. Don't think there will be a slop fest 06 like last year. Think a Kahuna is coming in January! Waiting for colder days!

E.H. Boston said...

The Accuweather hurricane update came out and it is scary. They are predicting 11 more named storms, which would bring us to Stan.

6 will HIT the United States, 3 of which will be major hurricanes. The target zone for these storms has now shifted from the Gulf coast to the EASTERN SEABOARD.

This means enjoy the tranquility now, while you, including myself, have the chance because we could all be having ourselves a very busy and interesting end of summer and early fall tropical fun.

Mr. Foot said...

Good morning all...7:42 AM here in Armenia, 10:42 PM your time. Weather is quite hot but dry so not so unbearable. Are the B-More folk saying that is was 100 in Charm City? Holy O's!

Accuwx hurricane forecast is ominous...6 more strikes? I wonder does the 3 major canes they call for include Dennis or no? I agree the Eastern Seaboard is now in target zone. I see the setup for another 1-2 "Hazel" type storms, cutting up through Carolinas into Chesapeake. Think of it this way...take what happened to Florida in past year (6 storms in 12 months) and shift to Carolinas/Mid Atlantic and enhance to Cat 3 and that's what may happen from Aug 15 to Sep 15. Think about what these temps are doing to the water. I heard it was near 80 recently at OC, NJ. I will try to post the current SST anomalies, as they are outta sight. A patch of 4 deg F above normal developing off W African coast...in July!

Yes Julee, FF spares no expense in bringing you the latest, from Armenia even. If you want to see pictures, send me an email to rdfoot@comcast.net and I'll include you in the Armenian photo show. Oh, and who is paying for the internet access? YOU of course!!! as I get to connect through a US government server! A wise use of your tax dollars, don't you think?

Terpboy said...

0945 28 July

72 F in Harford County...the windows are opened for the first time in a while!

Now, if only the O's could win a few games....

E.H. Boston said...

Wow its in the low 70's outside with little humidity. How refreshing...also that the Sox have pulled a 2 game lead over the Yankees, who lost last night to the Twins 7-3.

Bring on the hurricanes, all the way to southern New England. We haven't seen one since Bob, with 75-80 mph winds when it went into Buzzards Bay near the Cape. Is this even possible? Or will we get the leftovers of a Mid Atlantic storm? Not that I am wishing for a hurricane to hit us. Just if it is going to happen, we might as well go the whole nine yards...and recover before the snow, nor'easters, blizzards, arctic cold spells, and what not comes.

Nor'Easters, on that topic, I think cause more damage to us here in New England because they can last for 2-3 days with nonstop 40 mph/gusting to 60 mph winds, and blinding snow and beach erosion, while hurricanes, here at least only last for about 12 hours, rain and wind, and a couple hours with real strong winds.

So, as you can see, I believe Nor'easters are more destructive than hurricanes, in New England. Now it is up to Mother Nature to prove me wrong.

GO RED SOX 56-45 (1st AL EAST)

Nbcweatherman said...

Hey foot, I am just a new user to the blogger site and I would like to know when you will talk about the winter season. I live in Central Pa and we saw hardly anything last year compared to the years before. Will it be different this year??? Maybe more snow???

Nbcweatherman said...

Oh yeah I got a website for weather information for anyone in the Central PA region or South Central Pa....its www.freewebs.com/southcentralpaweather . Its updated daily and has everything from hurricanes to severe weather...hope you cjeck it out.

Nbcweatherman said...

Oh and one more thing about the site above it includes my own 12-Day forecast!

Nbcweatherman said...

Its currently Partly Cloudy and only 76!!! Thats a lot better than 95 that we had yesterday...and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. To be near 80-85 for the next 10 days and a few chances of storms! Can't wait for summer.

Nbcweatherman said...

Sorry correction Foot...cant wait for WINTER!

Julee said...

NBCW--

We welcome ALL winter wackos! Can't have enough FLAKES!
But it would be nice if you addressed our host as Mr. Foot.

Nbcweatherman said...

Ok Mr.Foot, I hope you can give us information on Winter soon.

E.H. Boston said...

Harvey could be developing a little north of Hispanola. We'll have to watch it.

Sox playing the Twins today. Should be a good series.

nbcweatherman- I know how anxious you are about the winter forecast, and I am too, but being only July 29th, there would be no way for Mr. Foot to accurately or even give us a general idea for what to expect. I found this site right before a Blizzard hit us in Boston on Jan. 22. Mr. Foot called it, and ever since I have been hooked. Wait till December through March and the REAL FUN begins with all the snowstorm talk and what not. By then you will have to check this site at least 4 times a day for any developments.

Last year, our first accumulating snow (4-7") came on November 12th. Still about 3.5 months till then...about 4 months before our normal first accumulating snow. The clock is ticking.

Julee said...

Oh, that's RIGHT, E.H., you had snow in NoVEMber!!!!!!]
I forGOT that I was going to move to Boston this year!

By the way Mr. Foot, on Wednesday, the temperature in my kitchen was 102. Everything in there was hot to the touch and there was definitely NO (voluntary) cooking going on.

And thank you, NBCW.

Nbcweatherman said...

Ok,well maybe Mr.Foot could give us an idea of the winter season??? Well Harvey could be lurking this weekend...models show a possible turn toward Florida to South Carolina Coast according to the Hydrometeorolgical Prediction center.

P.S...We didnt get any Blizzard last year in Central PA...only about 25" all year.

Nbcweatherman said...

Last year it was almost January till we got a good snow 3-6"...but in 2003 we had snowflakes on October 2nd!

E.H. Boston said...

Well not to brag (or anything), Boston officially recorded something like 86.9" (or so) of snow. Believe it or not, the CAPE received well over 100" of snow, when they normally see only 20-30" annually.

Still the 2004-2005 winter season was not as bad as the 1995-1996 winter season when Boston officially recorded over 107" of snow...with the suburbs around 125", Worcester 150", and northern New England (NH, VT, ME) OVER 200"!

Now wouldn't that be nice for the winter exactly 10 years after it, 2005-2006...for the ENTIRE MEGALOPOLIS. (Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and DC, and I'll throw in central PA too) We would have ourselves the funnest 4-5 months money doesn't have to buy.

E.H. Boston said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
E.H. Boston said...

Sorry, the computer burped...don't think my posts are that important.

Nbcweatherman said...

Well e.h boston its ok to brag cause I can brag also...a county to our west recevied 150" of snow due to the lake effect last year, but only 30 miles away where I lived we picked up about 22 inches, because the bigger mountians block the snow. But for the Winter of 2002-2003 we picked up 27 inches from the President's Day storm alone!! Thats what I like and I liked 1996 Blizzard...but after that we had a rapid thaw and with 3 feet of snoe on the ground and thaw with a heavy rain it resulted in major flooding.

E.H. Boston said...

We also received 27" of snow during the Presdents Day storm too, back in 2003...we picked up 72" of snow that winter.

Drun53 said...

Im in Long Island and we picked up around 60" in 02-03 maybe a little less. We got around 26" on Presidents Day. During that blizzard in January where Boston got like 2 feet and the Cape got almost 40" we got 17" Last year was a good winter, with 52" Some people have been saying the pattern (more specifically analog) this year has been VERY similar to 95 and they think that if we can get a weak la nina, then we may potentially have a shot at a 95-96 type winter! You never know!

Terpboy said...

Got back yesterday from a weather conference at BWI.

Got to listen to and learn from Wes Junker (NOAA), Kevin Ambrose (professional weather photog), Joe Lundberg (accuweather), Larry Cosgrove, Dave Tolleris (WxRisk), and Paul Kocin.

Whoa!

O's s*ck...time to start rooting for the Sox!

E.H. Boston said...

Seems like the tropics are as quiet as they were in a long time. They took a vacation the same time Mr. Foot took a vacation.

Sox swept the Twins yesterday, winning 4-3. Manny had the game winning hit, glad he is not with the Mets. If the Sox ever started s*cking, I would be the first one to root for the O's or Blue Jays, whoever had the better chance of knocking out the HATED YANKEES.

Nbcweatherman said...

Hot day in central PA going for a high around 90 with high dewpoints and heat index around 95. To be hott through the week. Tropics are quiet but according to the outlook they could get a slow development but there is a few out there to develop.

E.H. Boston said...

Looks like the storm north of the Bahamas is really starting to blossum...all are still saying it is unlikely to develop, but these are the same people that missed Franklin (and Gert) all together. (think that is the correct for of all together)

E.H. Boston said...

Take a couple deep breaths for what you are about to read. In fact, have a cup of water beside you and a friend to throw it over your head after you read this excerpt from the National Weather Service regarding the Hurricane Season. This stuff is historic...

August 2005 Update to Atlantic

Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA is calling for an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, according to a consensus of scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). The updated outlook calls for an extremely active season, with an expected seasonal total of 18-21 tropical storms (mean is 10), with 9-11 becoming hurricanes (mean is 6), and 5-7 of these becoming major hurricanes (mean is 2-3).

We could have 21 named storms, just think what name will that bring us to on the chart?

TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE ...

WILMA!!!!!!

PS- They have changed their minds on the storm located north of the Bahamas...could be a depression or even a tropical storm within the next 24 hours.

Things are really starting to heat up...

Did I mention that 2-3 HURRICANES, as predicted by the hurricane center in Miami, will make landfall along the eastern seaboard, from Florida to Maine...from Miami to Bar Harbor. (not to mention any strikes on Nova Scotia)

All be weary now, this is by no means a dooms day forecast, but it surely is a good warning that something bad and big is coming our ways.

This is truly, as in one of Mr. Foot's post's headlines, "The Calm Before the Storms."

E.H. Boston said...

Before we enter the 2nd phase of the Hurricane Season, let's put this already active season in review.

JUNE TROPICAL ACTIVITY

NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS
MPH
----------------------------------------------------------
TS ARLENE 8-13 JUN 70MPH 1

TS BRET 28-29 JUN 40MPH 0


JULY TROPICAL ACTIVITY

NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS
MPH
----------------------------------------------------------
TS CINDY 3-7 JUL 70MPH 0
H DENNIS 4-12 JUL 150MPH 32+
H EMILY 11-21 JUL 155MPH 5+
TS FRANKLIN 21-29 JUL 70MPH 0
TS GERT 23-25 JUL 45 0
----------------------------------------------------------

Nbcweatherman said...

Hello, big tropical headlines with new updated prediciton from National Hurricane Center. Well we should look at what will happen if there happens to be over 21 storms. #1.The storm names run out. #2.They use the greek alphabet.(Alpha...etc.)Lets hope we dont get that far. Well Hot again in Central PA...car thermometer showed 94. To be hot through Thursday then another refresher for weekend.

E.H. Boston said...

Red Sox won their 7th straight last night, beating the awful Royals 8-5, bring our record to 61-45...a season high 16 games over .500

4.5 AHEAD of the Yankees with two months to play.

E.H. Boston said...

Look at the satillite pictures of the eastern Atlantic and tell me what you see?

Well, if you did not notice the large area of convection with a low pressure system in it, this could very well be T.D. 9, or even Tropical Storm IRENE shortly.

Still a long ways off till this reaches any type of land, so everyone will just keep an eye on it for now. Looks impressive now, think how impressive it will look in a week if it stays out of wind shear. Very impressive.

The tropics are heating up once again.

EH BOSTON

Go Red Sox 61-45 (1st AL EAST)

E.H. Boston said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Drun53 said...

Yeah, some people are comparing this wave to Isabel because of where it originated and the size. In the past, I storms have been monsters, last year we had Ivan, 2 years ago we has Isabel and I think 3 years ago we had Isadore. I have a feeling this will be a gulf/Florida threat, although a recurve or east coast threat is a possibility.

Nbcweatherman said...

New Tropical Depression 9! Wow, what a year. IT's not to be moving very fast and will not make it any land through the weekend and into next week...looks like if this would impact the US, it wouldn't be till next weekend or perhaps later. Just a shipping interest and is to become a storm tomorrow and a hurricane this weekend possibly. Watch for the latest details like I am on the National Hurricane Center's website.

Mr. Foot said...

Hello all from the Middle East. This is last comment and post until Sunday as we are heading back to the US from Armenia.

Thank you for keeping the comments alive and well during my absence. I'm also glad the tropics behaved while I was gone. I have a feeling they will be springing to life very shortly, so I've got my fingers rested and ready for the action to come in August and September.

Talk to you all again on Sunday afternoon.

Julee said...

Mr. Foot, et al.

Just back from Ocean City and I have to tell you that the ocean water temp took exactly NO minutes to get used to! You can just walk right in, which lead me to think that if the water is that warm in Maryland -- how warm is it off the coast of FLORIDA?
Uh oh.

Nbcweatherman said...

Well Tropical Depression 9 is a dud for now...its not to develop rapidly but is moving into favorable conditions. The wave right behind it looks very well and could develop in a few days and another one off the alabama coast is developing but may not develop into a storm or a depression. National Hurricane Center not focused on other waves that much except the Gulf one and Harvey and T.D. 9. Ready for a cool down!!!

E.H. Boston said...

Looks like Tropical Storm Irene (40mph) is going to continue moving NW and then in about 4-5 days take a direct northern route out into the open Atlantic. Looks like the US has dodged another one. Irene will probably not even make it to hurricane status either, just a weak to moderate tropical storm like Franklin and Harvey...a storm for the fishes and shipping interests.

Now all eyes will be shifted to the formation of Jose, could this be the one?

Time will tell.

EH BOSTON
AUGUST 7, 2005