Monday, August 8, 2005

OCEAN HEATING UP, CLOCK TICKING DOWN

Atlantic 8-8-05


Looking at the tropics in these dog days of summer, you can say it is both active and quiet. We have 2 weak tropical storms, and 2 areas of disturbed weather. Despite no hurricanes at present makes us think all is quiet on the eastern front. But considering the buildup of convective activity across the Atlantic in recent days, odds are more likely another system will pop out and start the march westward. The important observation to make with Harvey and Irene is they indicate the prevailing winds...Harvey is caught in the westerlies as you would expect of a storm in that part of the Atlantic. Irene is negotiating a high pressure ridge and trying to either cut under it or get reestablished underneath it. This along with varying intensity of shear on the west side has been limiting development...without a strong upper level high pressure above the storm, Irene does not have adequate ventilation to allow moisture rising through the eye wall to exhaust out. Even with relatively warm SST's in the area, absence of the upper level high the difference between a notable hurricane and a forgettable tropical storm. I'm sure coastal populations prefer the latter. The concern is that a weak western Atlantic ridge now will eventually re-strengthen in a few days to a week, and then serve to guide storms toward the East Coast once it does.

SST 8-8-05

The absence of significant storms right now also means the key areas of the Atlantic Basin continue to warm to record levels. This runaway warming, attributed by some scientists more to a decadal cycle than to global warming, is part of the reason behind NOAA's upward revision of storm strength and frequency for second half of the season.


WHERE THE SEASONAL FORECAST STANDS

“TO END OF JULY: One perhaps two minor systems. Landfall unlikely to be in the Gulf coast, more likely to be along Eastern Florida, the Carolina coast or even Bermuda.”

RESULT: Two tropical storms…Franklin (70 mph) Atlantic, no landfall. Gert (45 mph) Mexico.

“AUG 1-15: Landfalls shift to the Carolinas. Five named storms, two hurricanes, three tropical storms.”

RESULT: 2 tropical storms so far. (Harvey 60 mph) and Irene (40 mph) No landfalls. To verify, another 3 storms would need to develop between now and Aug 15, which seems possible but not likely. There is concern of a tropical wave that may intensify off the Virginia coast in mid week, and a stalled front in the northern Gulf could become a depression.

I still maintain that the period from AUG 15 to SEP 15, and possibly extending beyond that, will be a very busy time, with landfalls from Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Five or six named storms, two major hurricanes. We may have a period when there are 3 or 4 storms going on at once, covering the gamut of possibilities... a major hurricane, minor hurricane, tropical storm and depression all in tandem at different parts of the Atlantic concurrently.


Now that my family and I are safely back in the US, we will be focusing on school preparations. I hope the tropics remain quiet the next 2 weeks, it would be a blessing. Thanks to everyone who posted comments during my overseas trip. The next update will probably not be until we have a more clear picture of what Irene is going to do, so no update before Wednesday 8/10.

6 comments:

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot

What are the chances that Tropical Storm Irene will go west into the favorable zone for her to develop instead of going into the North Atlantic where she will no doubt die?

Is there a candidate for TD 10 or Jose in the near future?

E.H. Boston said...

WHERE IS EVERYBODY? AND MR. FOOT?

HAVE YOU SEEN THE NEW PROJECTED PATH FOR IRENE AND SHE IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN TO PERHAPS A HURRICANE WITHIN 72-86 HOURS...WITH A PATH THAT WILL BRING IT MOST LIKELY AT THIS POINT FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

EVERYBODY WAKE UP!!!

THIS COULD BE SOMETHING.

AUGUST 9, 2005

Mr. Foot said...

E.H.

I have been watching Irene closely but have been holed up working on pictures from the trip to Armenia. Accuweather is concerned that Irene will surprise us once she gets on the underside of Bermuda and near the Carolinas. I think the mid Atlantic may be in trouble, however I also see the possibility of it curving out just east of Hatteras. Interference with the stationary front draped across Chesa Bay will slow Irene down, allowing her to strengthen but may not let her come directly at us. Not sure what new maps you are referring. Latest TPC advisory is 11AM, next one at 5 PM.

Mr. Foot said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
E.H. Boston said...

Check out this site...for Irene.

For the forecasted track go to:
http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/ameriwx.php?config=&forecast=pass&pass=tropicalmaps&hwvstormid=9&stormregion=NT&year=2005&noaaeventnum=4&maptype=forecast&zoom=0&advtype=&showfore=&plotcities=&hwvmetric=

OR

hurricaneadvisories.com

Nbcweatherman said...

THe latest from the weather channel shows Irene has weakened considerably and it is to possibly regain strength tomorrow. The latest track suggests a Tropical Storm and maybe become a hurricane before heading to the eastern coast or turning and riding up the coast. A front that will be around early next week could direct Irene out to sea.