Thursday, October 6, 2005

BUSY TIMES

Busy Times
My apologies to my frequent readers for being behind the eight ball in these busy times. It seems that when life, family and work get active, so does the weather. In one week, we've had two tropical cyclones form and make landfall, a heat wave and a blizzard in North Dakota, all on the same continent. Those of you in the eastern third of the U.S. are going to feel the air grow increasing tropical for early Fall, as the remnants of Tammy will surge northeast and help put a dent in the drought. October can be a bizarre month as opposing air masses are beginning to draw the battlelines for winter. There is still much to watch closely in the tropics, as two systems are approaching the U.S. and may post a threat of development in the next week to 10 days, especially a potential "long tracked system" from the east central Atlantic. Here's a hint...do you remember Hazel in 1954? As for winter, I will be soon releasing my forecast for the first half of the season, covering Nov 1 to Jan 1. I'll do the second half of winter once I see if my first half forecast verifies. I believe we may see some early season snow, similar to the 2002 setup where areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast say much above normal temperatures in October, followed by a mild November and then winter arrived with a vengeance in December and never looked back. I have evidence to backup this proposal, so stay tuned.

11 comments:

Julee said...

Mr. Foot

Welcome back to your own website!
I just saw a crawl on 'BAL warning us about 6 inches of rain!
Is that a half-day waiting to happen?

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks! Great to be back!

More like 3 inches and happening over several days.

Of course, if that was snow.. I wouldn't want to think how much that would be.

Julee said...

Oh *I* would!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Instead of a half-day for rain today, Hereford Middle had no electricity this morning. Just to stir things up a bit.

Heard Tom Tasselmyer predicting a snowy winter due to the dry summer. Was he correct?

E.H. Boston said...

RAIN RAIN RAIN

Extended forecasts have rain in the forecast until Wednesday or Thursday.

Predicted Amounts:

Eastern MA: 4-6"
Central MA: 5-8"
Some spots could locally see 8"+

Crazy.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I'm still sticking to the VERY snowy winter forecast I predicted in earlier posts. BWI will have over 40 inches by the seasons end! York Pa perhaps 60. I'm not backing off of this one. This is my official forecast, and I'm glad to see Mr. Foot is bringing his thinking in line with mine. I do believe it is looking like 2002, but not exactly the same.

Nbcweatherman said...

do you mean 2001-2002 or 2002-2003 winter???

E.H. Boston said...

Probably the 2002-2003 one, the other one was the warmest one on record at least for us here in Boston. 02-03 we got 6 feet of snow.

What is up with subtropical depression 22?!!!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

2002-03. No two winters are ever the same, but if there is a very long warm and dry period, a cold and wet one seem to follow. Everything seems to balance out over the long haul. Question is timing. I think this winter will be very interesting, but again this is just my speculation. Last winter in the mid atlantic was almost a no show, but I truly think we are due for at least one Blizzard, and an overall snowy pattern here.

E.H. Boston said...

Hurricane Vince about to hit Portugal in the coming days!!!

10-20" of SNOW to fall on the city of Denver tomorrow and Tuesday!!!

A dam breaks in NH, causing thousands to be evacuated and national guard troops deployed, after nearly a FOOT OF RAIN overnight!!!

Is this the armagedon of weather upon us?!!

Julee said...

Add in the Pakistan earthquake and it's more than 25 aftershocks and we have to wonder what this earth is up to!

Mr. Foot said...

Julee... don't forget avian influenza. You do know about H5N1 don't you? I'm sure you've already stocked 3-4 months of food, right?

Just wait until the Day After Tomorrow to find out what happens next. :)

- end of sensationalist comments -

I think winter will kick off with a bang in early December, disappoint in January, then rev up again in February/March.

I also think the tropics will continue to plague and haunt us right up to the closing bell on Nov 30. We may even have a situation in November where this site has to deal with winter storm forecasting for the Northeast while a tropical cyclone threatens
in the Gulf.