Sunday, October 9, 2005



A very rare photo of a far eastern Atlantic HURRICANE believe it or not. This extremely bizarre storm formed in waters less than 80 F, strengthened to 75 mph, with gusts to 90 mph and is heading northeast on a path toward Portugal of all places. Read the MSNBC article on this storm. When in our lifetime have we seen such a weird situation? The only other candidates are a tropical cyclone which hit Brazil in March 2005, and a hybird hurricane like storm in the Mediterranean in 1995. If you know of other wild thing candidates, please let me know. Vince is likely to make landfall as a extra-tropical storm somewhere along the northern coast of Portugal by Wednesday.


Atlantic 10-09

After the drenching downpours experienced by the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this weekend, most are crying uncle and praying for the sun to return. The unfortunate news is that the sunny, dry pattern has finally been broken, and replaced with a tropical rain train that may very well deliver another super-soaker in the middle of the week. This pattern would be akin to September 1999, when Tropical Storm Dennis deluged North Carolina and Virginia, only to be followed within less than 10 days by Floyd. "Subtropical" Depression #22 looks to be the next rainmaker culprit, as the surface and upper-level lows are conspiring to deliver another round of unwelcome wetness to areas that now LEAST need it. The best news of the day is that despite all the tropical trouble, there is no "long-tracked" system moving in from the eastern Atlantic, but we will have to contend with home brew threats for the remainder of the month. With the letter "V" now taken, we've only got "W" to go and then the hurricane season will really start to talk Greek. Yes there are all kinds of other interesting weather events taking place...including a snowstorm in Denver, shrinking sea ice in the Arctic and dams breaking in New Hampshire. For now we will just continue to focus on the tropics. Winter storm season is not far behind.


E.H. Boston said...


Look OUT!!! A snowy cold one is on the way...

New England: -3 deg or colder
Snowfall: >125% of normal snowfall

Mid Atlantic
Temperature: -2 to -3 deg below normal
Snowfall: 100-125% of normal


Nbcweatherman said...

Yes!!!! Can't wait for Mr.Foot's outlook.

Foot's Forecast said...

I have known for a while that Accuwx's outlook would be a headline grabbing cold and snowy winter forecast. And yes, they have vastly more resources and expertise at their disposal. However I can still disagree and support with data as they do.

A tidbit of my forecast:
I don't see the same SST indicators that would lead to a great winter blowout for NE as we saw last year. SST off the North Atlantic coast is not super warm like last year at this time. Also, a more La Nina than El Nino signal, especially off the Pacific coast, does not bode well for developing giant Feb 2003 like storms which need to gather moisture from 3 sources.. Pac, Gulf and Atl. If anything, a "blocking pattern" in early Fall I think means that the winter goes overboard in December, like we saw in 1989, then goes bust in January with above normal temps and calls of "winter's over!" Then sweet revenge strikes in February with above normal snowfall.

To be fair, I have not read anyone's winter outlook, official or unofficial. I have only compared past winters to past data.

And I won't be reading AccuWx's forecast until AFTER I post mine.

Foot's Forecast said...

If you think about simple trends...a positive NAO trending neutral, then shifting to negative too early in the season only means that we'll pay with a much more positive NAO later, just when we don't want it. In December and January. That alone would kill Accuwx's assertion of a cold and snowy winter, at least for the first half.

Nbcweatherman said...

I have read an astroglogers forecast for winter...surprisingly he predicted the recent earthquake...He says it will begin early and last long. Not saying anything else about it though until your forecast is issued.

Tom said...

It's going to be interesting to see what happens this winter. It seems I'm taking an approach closer to yours, but I flip-flopped Jan and Feb (cold to moderating January with lots of snow and a mild to cold Feb with rain and maybe one snow threat).

However, I don't forecast winters solely based on science, climo, and indiciators...I do throw some good old fashioned gut-instinct into my thinking.

When are you releasing your forecast, Foot?

E.H. Boston said...

I can sense that the first snowfall here is not that far away. I call it my sixth sense...I can feel it in my bones...a couple to a few more weeks and I'll be reporting the first flakes. Boston's suburbs usually see their first flakes around the last week of October or first week of November. Last year, ironically, we saw our first snow (4-8") on November 12th, very late for our first snow. (flakes)

Oh, yeah, 5-10" more rain for us, and we've already seen anywhere between 4-11" statewide. Yikes.

Frank said...

Central nj received 8+" of rain Saturday, and it has been coming down for hours again today. Looks like I am going to have to empty the rain gauge during my lunch today. It is probably pushing the limit of 4.5" again.

Foot's Forecast said...

Sorry all for not updating recently. Oct is thrill and chill month with Dundalk Adventure Club. We have a 10/13 trip to Skatepark and Shopping Mall in Flemington NJ, and 10/22 is Six Flag Great Adventure. Frank... I'll wave as we go by! Or you can meet me at
Shields to rip up some tricks.

Hoping there are not going to be any tropical systems to bother between now and 10/22. Wonder if this rain is the start of a long pattern or just nature correcting imbalances.