Saturday, December 3, 2005

BORN ON THE LAST DAY
OF HURRICANE SEASON?
Am I talking about Hurricane Epsilon...
the 14th named storm of this record-smashing season?

Epsilon

(Actually, no...I am really referring to:)
THE LATEST LITTLE FOOT
Johns Hopkins University's Bayview Hospital
Baltimore, Maryland

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Now you know the reason this site has been offline for so long. I apologize to all the loyal readers out there whom have put up with my silence and lack of communication or forecasts for over a month now. As you can imagine, we have been heavily immersed in baby preparation, and it paid off. Mommy had an emergency C-section, but all went well and we have a beautiful baby girl, to complement our already darling first little girl who is thrilled about her new baby sister.

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Everyone is home now and resting peacefully after 4 days in recovery. Those of you with several children know better than I how challenging it can be to keep sane in a busy home full of rambunctious kids. But at least for this holiday season, we will be thoroughly enjoying the relative calm of a 2-year old and a 1-week old. As I write this, I am blessed to have both children asleep, as well as Mommy napping too! (I'm sure that will change very soon.)

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Kaselyn proved to be the catalyst I needed to get the forecast site back on line. Now I am slowly finding out that we (as in the I-95 corridor and interior PA, VA, WV) might have our first big snowfall of the season on December 5-6. So I am very excited to have all my ladies back home, but equally as excited that we might get to have a real snow at a time when I can enjoy it while I am off for school. Jayla, (my first daughter) has her first Christmas program this evening, and after that it will be an early bedtime for everyone. I usually get more motivated to begin forecasting again when it becomes more evident that MY FAMILY will be among the happy recipients of a snowfall significant enough to close school. The double bonus right now is that a snowday while I am on my 2-week paternity leave does not count against my leave time, nor do I have to write lesson plans for the substitute! I can just stay home, enjoy the snow, take pictures, and spend quality family time. We feel truly blessed and my best wishes to your families that you will feel these same kinds of blessing this Christmas season.


NOW, with no further delay... I return to the job you've all been waiting so patiently for. SNOWSTORM FORECASTING. I am looking into the latest computer model projections for this apparent new storm on the docket for Sunday night into Tuesday. While I am out this evening, take a look at the latest QPF maps for Sat-Sun and Mon-Tue as well as the latest round of Special Weather Statements to see why I think it looks good for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to get their first I-95 special of the year.

32 comments:

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot nice to have you back! Your new baby looks awesome...just getting back from my son's High School Super Bowl game and they WON 34-7 and are Division 1A State Champs.

Now I find out that we are under a snow advisory here in Woburn for 2-4" of snow and possibly 6"++ for Tuesday. Could life get any better, yeah, you guys are getting tons of snow too!!!!!!!

Nice to have you back.

Mr.B said...

Hey Mr. Foot nice to see ya. 2-4" here in greencastle tonight but what about mon-tues?

Chip said...

Welcome back, Mr. Foot, and congratulations!
Hope you and the family continue to do well.
Can't wait to hear the lowdown on the coming few days!
QPF maps look good, eh?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

CONGRATULATIONS! Welcome back! Another Foot kick'in around the house... Yay! It is 12:40 am and we have an inch of snow on the ground here a few miles north of Baltimore County. Snowing at a moderate rate. Maybe this season will make up for the last two! I think that it will! I stand by my prior guesscasts and think it will be a very snowy season. PRAYING FOR A NICE POUNDING MONDAY. Often the hardest to predict storms produce the most snow. The models have gone back and forth on this one but I here J.B. at accuweather has stuck to his guns. The southern bias may be in play with this event, and if it is lookout Baltimore Northward!

Mr. Foot said...

Good morning everyone... great to see the old gang is back too.

I have not yet seen the latest runs, but I was reading yesterday about the southern bias, and I agree with Andy that this might get winter started with a bang for Baltimore.. it reminds me of the Dec 5-6 2002 event where B-more got 7 inches and school was closed for 2 days, remember that one Terp?
Interesting enough guys, Elliott Abrams did a study on first snowfalls in Philly and found that if the accumulation at PHL airport was more than 6 inches in the first snowfall, the rest of the winter proved to be snowy and above normal. I hope so, we shall see. I plan to post a detailed update later this AM once my coffee kicks in. By the way, that "Word Verification" procedure you have to do at the bottom of each comment is mainly to prevent auto-search engines from posting inappropriate messages, which did happen during h-cane season.

Mr.B said...

Sounds good Mr. Foot. Just watched the news 3-6" so far predicted. Last night got a light coating of snow and about 1/4 an inch of ice.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Mostly ice here and in fact VERY icy here on top of a thin layer of snow. Least it's not rain so I don't have to pull out the boat. Better to use ice skates in December than to have to row down the streets like last season.

terpguy said...

Rich!

That's fantastic. Your family is beautiful. Hope that everybody is healthy.


Bad news: the snowflakes for my barn are dead...not one of them will light...I hope that's not a bad omen!

Terpguy
(nee- terpboy)

John said...

Accuweather is only predicting right now 2.6 inches of snow for Pikesville. Hmm.....not too much snow, but guess enough to create a panic at the grocery store.

E.H. Boston said...

Yesterday the GFS was giving the greater Boston area a major snowstorm Tuesday and the NAM/ETA was giving us a miss all together.

Today the NAM/ETA is giving us a rather significant snowstorm on Tuesday and the GFS has backed down considerably on snowfall for Tuesday northwest of the Cape.

This storm is killing me, seems like with each new run of the computer models the forecast changes completely. One minute its calling for heavy snow and then the next it is missing us by just that .. much.

What are you talking about with your Southern Bias? Could the GFS be showing a Southern Bias and is that why its showing the storm missing us by a few miles, or are only you guys in the Mid Atlantic going to benefit from this "Southern Bias?"

SNOWFALL SO FAR TODAY:

Woburn, MA: About 1.5" to 2.0" so far and snow lightly till about noon. Maybe another 1/2".

Doing a snow dance for Tuesday...

linda said...

Mr. Foot, Congratulations on your beautiful new addition, what a wonderful ealy Christmas present.Another wonderful thing EARLY SNOW!!With more in the forecast. Thats sort of fun, and it looks so beautiful with the Christmas decorations. Welcome back we missed you.

Mr. Foot said...

Hey gang... I think we're going to see a repeat of the Jan 22 05 situation..the models first starting beating an I-95 drum, then all marched out to see with a total miss for NYC/SNE, then what happened? Everyone got walloped. Sudden last minute shift north and presto, 14 inches for Philly, 12 inches for NYC, and Boston.. 27-30 inches.

I have a sneaking suspicion the NWS (at least in DC-BAL) will gradually start drifting the Winter Storm Watch farther north with time. WHy? The NAO. Was very negative for a while, and it forecast to slowly lift toward neutral in next several days. This would argue for a northward/westward shift in the development of the snow shield, once it does develop. So what was old will be new again, and Boston.. your snow dance will pay off my friend, just you wait and see. This is the same game the NWS plays every year with first big storm, they follow the models lockstep until the last second. Second storm they learn their lesson and use more instinct than model worship.

Mr.B said...

What about greecastle Mr. Foot. 4,5 inches? ya almost all the models show a big snow storm except the GFS. ETA/NAM 4+", NGM 5+" but the GFS is like NADA. What gives.

Evan said...

on weather.com the hourly forecast has "snow" from 6pm until 5am for timonium. Mr. Foot if it snows for this long how much snow could we get?

Mr.B said...

Mr.Foot is your update coming out soon?

Mr. Foot said...

While we were having a family nap, Sterling VA NWS decided to do what I expected they would...extended WSW to PA line. Now we have to see if PHL and NYC NWS begin to fall in line.

Also visitors to see baby are coming so will put together update in between all this. Working on it now.

I will peg 5" for BWI airport, 6" for DULLES and 7" for Towson.

E.H. Boston said...

Alright, WINTER STORM WATCHES have been posted for Boston on SOUTH. Right now they are calling for 4-8"+ in this area, but warrant that if the storm moves a little bit further north that the watches would as well all the way into southern New Hampshire.

You guys in the Baltimore area are under a winter storm watch as well, the 05-06 season is starting off great. Around 2.5" of snow today here in Woburn, 13 mi NW of Boston.

Last night Paul Kocin said that the Big Snowstorm scenario looked more and more likely, then I woke up and the local news stations are like we think it is going to miss us this morning. Uhh, craziness before winter storms.

Do you think that the watch will get lifted northward??

Mr.B said...

MR. Foot can you include greencastle in your forecast?

They did not issue a watch yet but said this:

SREFS DO HOWEVER SHOW THAT ALMOST HALF THE MEMBERS BRING HIGH
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO UNV FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.

Current forecast 3-6"

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

My guesscast:

Dulles 5"

BWI 8"

Towson 10"

York, PA 12"

Phila 12"

Boston 14"

And the march north creeps on. Long live the early southern bias.

Mr.B said...

Foot will you have the update down soon? And can you answer my question from the last comment?

Tom said...

Congratulations Mr. Foot :-)

May you enjoy your 5-7" snow.

Tom -- Philadelphia Weather

Mr.B said...

You really think a foot of snow for york,pa what about franklin county andy?

E.H. Boston said...

Waiting for your update as patiently as I possibly can.

My guess for Snowfall:

Cape Cod and the Islands: 12"+

Southeast MA: 8-12"

Inside Rt. 495 to Boston: 4-8"

Outside 495: < 4"

Whats your prediction????

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I guess with this type of storm anything is possible. Franklin County could easily get a foot if it tracks more west. There is no clear agreement with respect to the models and a ton of speculation at this point. Will the storm intensify, will it track more north and west, as well as how fast will it move, or snow to water ratios and temps. This is a southern low tracking north into some very cold air. The ingrediants are there for a huge storm. Question is how will they come together for any particular location. I think this thing will continue to trend north. This is just my speculation. But watch the EVER changing forecasts. Remember Feb 2002 President's Day storm, no one called for that until almost hours before it exploded. Not saying this will do that, but with this type of a storm anything can happen.

E.H. Boston said...

Mr. Foot, I bet this is going to be a great post coming up, I keep checking every hour to see if you've done it.

I don't blame you, I'd want to wait as long as possible to see the new runs of the computer models and see if there is any agreement between the NAM and GFS...seems like a repeating story, last year I remember complaining to you about the conservative GFS always backing down on big storms. What happened? We ended up with 86" of snow. I'm siding with the NAM.

If you are waiting to post, spoil us with a little post on this comment feature to do us over for a little while anyway, just to let us POWDERHOUNDS know what you are thinking about the prospects of this potential I-95 BLOCKBUSTER 2005...hey thats a good one, or I like your I-95 Special. Waiting for that WSW to get moved farther north into Woburn...

Mr. Foot said...

Gang... I appreciate your patience but you will have to put this all in perspective. Today was the first FULL day of having two children in my home for the very first time. And my wife had Kaselyn by emergency C-section, so her mobility is limited. I will do my best to get updates on, but managing a 2-year old, a newborn, and a recovering wife takes time. As does posting a halfway decent forecast read by hundreds of people across the Northeast U.S.
Let's just hope the work is worth it and there;s no school in Baltimore for at least Tuesday.

Evan said...

Paul Kocin just said the storm is unlikely to take the more northern path leaving us with little accumulations. Hopefully your forecast will be different Mr. Foot.

Mr.B said...

Ahhh newest models show storm staying down south. I give up I am going to bed and hoping to wake up to good news tomorrow.

wvmomof3 said...

Congratulations on your beautiful family Mr. Foot. Would you please include the Eastern Panhandle of WV in your work.

WEYTYN said...

hey mr foot- great to see you back and oh what a wonderful little package. I hope all your weather heads understand you'll be busy so they must be patient. i heard all the toilet paper, milk, and bread from dundalk to nyc is gone and no flakes are flying yet.
have a nice night and enjoy the paternity leave.

Bob said...

Congratulations - she's beautiful!

Northwest Florida here, so the winter forecasts are more of a "that's why I don't live north of I-10" explanation than a day-to-day tool. During hurricane season, though, your prognostications were useful and enlightening. Keep up the good work!

DerbsATerp said...

Mr. Foot

giving the college park powderhounds at UMD a little bit of insight would be something greater than awesome