Friday, December 16, 2005

AN EARLY CHRISTMAS PRESENT:
A NORMAL WEEK AHEAD


THE QUICK FORECAST..
1. No big storms next week, just cold weather
2. Xmas week...mix of cold/warm, some rain/snow
3. January disappoints with above-normal temps

Xmas Week 05



Dec 4A

For those of you who did not get the delay or closing you hoped, at least it is a "payday Friday" for many of us. Considering that the holiday vacation time is fast approaching, it is comforting to know that the Northeast will have a quiet week coming up. With people making travel and shopping plans, kids off the wall, parents getting frazzled, teachers ready for a break...at least the weather will not throw a monkey wrench in the calendar between now and next Friday. The GFS (Global Forecast System) map shown above is usually the forecast model of choice for the NWS, and the next storm progged for Sunday afternoon looks to skirt along the southern Mid-Atlantic. Following that, a period of below normal temperatures will set in for remainder of next week leading up to Christmas.

SO WHAT HAPPENED TO THE STORM?

Dec 3E

Blame the big time changeover to rain on simple physics. Counter-clockwise air rotating around the Low pressure center as it moved north along the I-95 corridor pulled in much warmer, moist air from the Atlantic. In fact, water temperatures along the NJ coast, Long Island and New England are above normal, while coastal areas along the DelMarVa and the Carolinas are below normal. This may be a factor behind the sharp temperature contrast shown above as the storm pulled north...southern and central Jersey had a nearly a 30 degree rise in temperature over 24 hours! I did not forecast for the I-95 cities in this storm because it looked clear from the beginning they would get more rain than snow. Philadelphia was the exception as they received snow where rain was expected first. My call for schools was off somewhat or at least reversed as I expected some closings and instead we had early dismissals. The graphic below from Accuweather.com illustrates the second phase of our storm as it heads north, giving Boston a taste of Baltimore weather... snow, then a period sleet and freezing rain, then rain.

Dec 3F

16 comments:

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

For Sunday, beware of the Southern bias in the GFS. Think it may trend a little more north. Time will tell.

Drew said...

I agree. This time of year and NAO not positive storms seem to come up futher north. New NAM now shows storm to southern PA / central NJ. We need a fresh white coating in Northern Bucks County. I don't see warm weather next week. 30's.

Drew said...

... all local forecasters are calling for milder Jan/Feb in the area so I guess the big let down is coming :-( after a great start to winter . Lets hope they are wrong ;-)

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I am still forecasting over 40 inches of snow at BWI this season. I know York Pa has had close to 10 aleady. I think we are overdue for a true blizzard. Think one will come this season. Still some hope for a White Christams, but I agree the southern PA snowpack needs a recharge!

Frank said...

All of our snow here in CNJ got washed away. Just have a little from where the snow plows went by. Doesn't look good for a white christmas here.

Julee said...

Apologies all around for the dearth of crushed ice. I thought Mr. Foot was KIDDING! But I got paid back, I was up and dressed before the Hereford delay call was made this a.m. My car really slid on EIGHT side streets before getting to the beltway. WJZ said the temp was 37. Not on THOSE streets!

Heard the forecast for snow to our south. Think it might REALLY creep farther north?
They are downplaying this a lot, so Andy -- now is your chance to shine as a pronogsticator. What do you think? A foot of snow?

Julee said...

Make that "prognosticator."
Thanks!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Them some very large words for a country boy like me Julee. But I'll "progonogitate" 1-3 inches possible. If there is a 4 inch drift somewhere, then all the better for us.

Julee said...

HOLY COW ANDREW!

I'm going to NYC this weekend and was looking up the forecast. They are saying light snow on Sunday. WHAT? Where is THAT coming from? The SOUTH?
So I look at Accuweather.
HELL-O! Check it out!

You are SOME prongnognicator!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Looks like our trend is not holding. SO much for relying on computer models. We will se what the new week brings us, but it does not look white at this point in time. Models have misled us before, maybe they will again. :(

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Does not look like the trend is continuing. Think this one will miss us.

E.H. Boston said...

Wow! It is the 23rd, the day before Christmas Eve, and the temperature is in the middle 40's on the way to 50 today!

Snow...on the ground in my yard there is still 3.5" of snow, but it is melting fast. It smells and feels like SPRING. Spring-a-lings must be going wild. White Christmas here, technically we probably will, but the inch of snow that will be on the ground won't last the whole day and isn't that white to begin with, more brown than anything. With moderate to heavy rain forecasted by Christmas Day night, looks like a wet Christmas afterall.

However, the GFS is showing that the rain will flip to ALL SNOW all the way to around Providence and Plymouth around about Monday morning, maybe even a light snow accumulation from Boston north and west.

Chilly air will overspread the area later in the week with highs generally in the low-mid 30's, with another chance of snow showers/flurries around Thursday.

Is there any chance of a biggie any time soon. Starting to get negative thoughts on how this winter is going to go.

We haven't seen a flake of snow since the 14" we saw on December 9th, OVER TWO WEEKS AGO!!!

Still waiting...maybe we'll get a good inch or two along about Monday morning and that will last for a while during school vacation week.

BOSTON SNOWFALL UPDATE:

11.5" so far this season

Hoping for many more inches to come!

E.H. Boston said...

Testing

kristine said...

OK Mr Foot...will we have a white Christmas this year???

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