Monday, June 13, 2005

QUIET IN THE GULF
ACTION BUILDING IN ATLANTIC

Atlantic 6-13-05
What many believe will promise to be an active season is continuing to pump out tropical waves that can easily develop into the next storm. This large area of disturbed weather off the S. American coast is heading west north west and will be in the southern Carribbean by Tuesday, and near Cuba by Friday. Keep an eye on this one, if named it would be Bret. A persistent upper level trough in the MidWest will push east and the Atlantic ridge responsible for the current stretch of heat and humidity will ease east. This setup might enable system # 2 to start curving more toward the north by the time it reaches it's northern Caribbean destination.


That means Cuba, eastern Florida and perhaps even the Carolinas could be at risk from this system by early next week.

Saturday, June 11, 2005

ARLENE COMES ONSHORE
NEAR PENSACOLA
WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL

Arlene 2
LUCKILY FOR EVERYONE ELSE,
THE ATLANTIC IS QUIET...RIGHT NOW

Atlantic 1
NO COMPARISON TO IVAN...
JUST NINE MONTHS AGO.
IN PENSACOLA, IT WAS LIKE YESTERDAY.

Ivan 1

IN FACT, HERE WAS YESTERDAY
IN PENSACOLA...
AND THAT SIGN SUMS IT UP

Arlene 3

As for yesterday (Friday, June 10)...those are piles of debris left over from the IVAN cleanup! Read about the agony and determination of Florida residents in the Pensacola News Journal. Arlene will bring heavy rain to the entire Southeast, and winds near 75 mph will produce extensive tornadoes to the right of the center throughout Florida and Georgia, probably extending into the Carolinas. The Mid-Atlantic will see widespread thunderstorms and more juicing of the humidity over the next several days. The Mississippi and Ohio Valley will also get drenched Sunday into Tuesday as Arlene's remnants merge with a frontal boundary moving in from the MidWest.

Hurricane Season is here and off with a bang. Hope you are ready. Pennsylvania residents learned first hand how much damage can be caused by a weakening tropical system even when the victims were hundreds of miles from the actual storm.

Friday, June 10, 2005

WILL ARLENE BE ANOTHER AGNES?

Arlene 1

ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT ARLENE:

1. IT IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, SO WON'T BECOME A HURRICANE, RIGHT? The NHC continues to up the landfall intensity forecast to a current near-hurricane force of 70 mph. With upper level shear weakening as the storm enters the Gulf, and water temperatures 2 deg F above normal, and slow movement, I believe it is just as likely the storm reaches hurricane strength as it does not.

2. HEAVY RAINS FOR 2 DAYS IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL WILL SOAK GROUNDS. This will allow for a greater than anticipated rish for downing of trees due to 50-70 mph winds, thus power lines and many headaches for areas recovering from Ivan.

3. PATH OF ARLENE MEANS THAT AREAS IN EASTERN QUADRANT WILL BE IMPACTED THE GREATEST. That is from Mobile Bay, AL eastward to Pensacola. Onshore winds combined with forward motion speed will mean these areas experience hurricane force winds by default.

4. REMNANTS WILL MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING EAST FROM ROCKIES. This will make for heavy flooding rains in the Mississippi into the Ohio Valleys from Sunday into Tuesday.

AS FOR THE AGNES QUESTION? Arlene will stay away from the Atlantic moisture source, so it cannot generate the kind of 1000 year flooding that Agnes caused.

Friday, June 3, 2005

HURRICANE SEASON KICKS OFF
WITH ACTIVE CARIBBEAN PATTERN

6-2-05

Two systems show signs of being first out of the gate for the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season. The NHC tropical weather discussion indicates the SE Caribbean system has been showing some circulation. Here is the comment:

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S 0F 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N42W-8N35W. "

The second system in the southern Gulf has been interacting with land for two days now, but continues to show what appears to an outflow-like arrangement to it's northern and eastern quadrants.

Here is the NHC comment:

"THE PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY ACTIVE OVER THE E GULF COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ROUGHLY ALONG 90W. DEEP-LAYERED S FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH LARGE-SCALE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES SHORTWAVE IMPULSES HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSETTLED/STORMY REGIME MAINLY OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER THE GULF THEN PROPAGATED NE ACROSS FLORIDA."

I am sorry that I have not yet posted the hurricane forecast. I will do this as soon as I can, trying to get a few other large projects moving along before I can refocus on final touches to the summer-fall forecast. Thanks for your patience.