Monday, February 13, 2006

AND NOW FOR THE POSTGAME

Feb 1I

From L to R, top row to bottom row: Tis the season for LOVE, for powderhounds and cupids alike, unless you have "a better idea," or does the snow excite you so much you're like a dog after a stick. Though it is a Happy Monday for most of us, definitely not for that cab driver. Maybe you've "been for a walk on a winter day' (with the Mamas and Papas), but when you get back, be sure to clear off Mama and Papas car. Photos from: Philly (top row), NYC and Boston, bottom row.

HOW DID MY FORECAST NUMBERS FARE?

This will be presented as Location, first accumulation forecast, plus second, plus final. Remember that I divided the storm into three time components...

A) Noon Saturday to 10:00 PM Sat, B) Then 10:00 pm Sat to 6:00 AM Sun, C) 6:00 AM Sun to the end of snowfall. So the final forecast number is based on added those three numbers up, then dividing by the actual observed amount as reported by NWS spotters or offical locations. Note that if there are zeros in the equation, it means I did not forecast additional amounts or left alone what I originally forecasted. In case you were wondering how it is I suddenly have all this free time with 2 children at home, one is watching "Little Einsteins," Mommy is showering and baby is sleeping, so I rushed to the keyboard as any father would naturally do. Oop, spoke too soo. I hear muttering in the baby's room.

FOR PART C OF THE STORM, THE FORECAST CRITERIA I USED IN THE 2-12 POST:
1. From DC to Balto to Frederick MD west to Harper's Ferry, WV... 1 more inch.
2. Along a line from DC to Balto to Philly and east to Del-Mar-Va, another 2-3 inches by noon 3. Along the extreme Eastern shores of Del-Mar-Va and New Jersey, another 3-4 inches

NOW FOR THE RESULTS:

Richmond, VA: 4 + 0 + 0 = 4.0 / actual 3.0 = 75% (25% over) Grade C

Charlottesville, VA: 7 + 0 + 0 = 7.0 / actual 8.0 = 87% Grade B

Martinsburg, WV: (actually Harper's Ferry) 8 + 4 + 1 = 13.0 / actual 14.0 = 92% Grade A

Baltimore, MD (BWI): 6 + 4 + 1 = 11 / actual at airport 13.2 = 80 % Grade B

Dundalk, MD: 5 + 4 + 1 = 10 / actual at my house 11 = 90% Grade A.

(However, my colleagues and students at Dundalk High School and elsewhere in Baltimore County will want to see the bag since I originally said NO MORE than 4")

Towson, MD: 4 + 4 + 1 = 9.0 / actual 16.0 = 56% Grade E

Elkton, MD: 4 + 4 + 2.5 = 10.5 / actual 15.0 NWS = 70% Grade C

Malvern, PA: 7 + 5 + 1 = 13 / actual 17 = 76% = Grade C

Philadelphia, PA (airport): 8 + 2 + 1 = 11 / actual 12.0 NWS = 91% Grade A

Bucks Co, PA: 7 + 3 + 0 = 10.0 / actual 16.0 News = 62 % Grade D

State College, PA: 1 + 0 + 0 = 1.0 / actual 2.1 NWS = 47% Grade E

Ocean City, NJ: (actually Atlantic City) 10 + 3 + 3.5 = 16.5 / actual 4.2 = total bust, Grade E

Rutgers Univ, NJ: 8 + 4 + 3.5 = 15.5 / actual 19.0 = 81% Grade B

Central Park, NYC: 11 + 6 + 0 (gave up) = 16.0 / actual 26.9 = 59% Grade E

Hartford, CT: 12 + 0 + 0 (gave up) = 12.0 / actual 27.0 = total bust, Grade E

Providence, RI: 13 + 0 + 0 = 13 / actual 12.0 NWS = 9% over Grade A

Boston, Logan Apt: 11 + 0 + 0 (gave up) = 11.0 / actual 17.0 NWS = 64% Grade D

Woburn, MA: 14 + 0 + 0 = 14 / actual 15.0 NWS = 7% over Grade A

WHAT'S THE FINAL GRADE POINT AVERAGE FOR THE STORM FORECAST?

Oh you had to ask. Well grading this on a 4.0 scale means E is 0, A is 4 and so on. I get a grade point total of 38 and 18 locations, thus 38 / 18 = 2.11, a basic C. So my score is average, Maybe someday I can grow up to be Pesident since he had average grades too! Hey, at least I hit some of my targets, unlike the Vice President on his hunting trip.

The remainder of this week, updates will be via the email distribution list. Mrs. Foot returns to work the middle of next week after her 12 week maternity leave, so only expect this site to be updated when there is a big storm on the horizon. Think of it this way, you'll hear about storm developments on email first, which will direct you back over to the site when the time comes. Until then, make sure those storm drains are CLEAR before the rain!

(If you want to be included on the email distribution list and have not already sent in your name, please send me a message to rfoot@bcps.org)

73 comments:

linda said...

I'ts a beautiful sunshiney day in Bucks county, looks extra bright because of the snow. Central bucks schools had a 2 hour delay, which amazes me because of the amount of snow. In my development the roads are really covered. I forgot to mention how beautiful your daughter looked shoveling! She looks so grownup from last winter, I guess thatis because she is a big sister now. Enjoy your snowday everyone, and looking forward to at least one more snow. Everyone keep your fingers crossed.

terpguy said...

In my (limited) experience, this was one of the most difficult storms to predict because of all of the variables.

The fact that you called for a major event (albeit a 10-day span) back in January speaks volumes.

When DT said "I don't know" about an area that the storm was/was not goingto hit (I believe Friday evening), this told me all I needed to know about the surity of this event.

This is absolutely no knock on him, most, if not all, of the other Pro mets were all over the place with this storm.

Great, great job, Mr. F.

Thanks for all of your effort and insight.

TG


ps- Will we get off tomorrow?




I'M KIDDING!!

Mr. Foot said...

Here's my morning roundup, then it is off to home projects and shopping which were put off during the storm.

Looks like a clean sweep in Baltimore Metro... from Cecil down to Anne Arundel as predicted, including the city.

Sorry Carroll and Frederick, it was our turn this time.

Andy So York County are you happy now that we finally got the BK we have long expected. Congrats on your newest little forecaster on the way. You too will learn how to type with one finger while feeding a baby.

Where's Eric?, the forecaster formerly known as EH Boston? Maybe he's jealous and dissing up ;-)

Sorry T-E and GV up in PA. Weird how you got similar to us and we're closed, you're open.

Mr. B maybe next time you'll be in on the party.

Mommyof3soontobe4: Did you have a snowday? I hope so

Congrats to Mr. A in MontCoPA who is still sleeping.

dickey66: By March you will have so much snow on the Fam Tour it will be ridiculous

Julee: So are the SnowGods still laughing now? or are you laughing at them (per your comment of Thursday)

Terp: I hope Towson HS can survive this recent storm without another water main break!

Frank in CNJ: good luck with the 19" you deserve a good storm at last

And my final question of the day everyone...what happened to uncle rico? did he get blown away by the Red Flag Warning in Oklahoma?

Julee said...

Most Amazing Mr. Foot,

YOU are the Snow God!!!!!!

And may I say that even MORE than your forecasting abilities, I admire your parenting abilities. Those two beautiful girls are very lucky to have a devoted father so involved in their daily care. I'll thank you on their behalf until they are old enough to realize what a GREAT father you are.

Snow DAY! Snow DAY! Snow DAY!

terpguy said...

Terp: I hope Towson HS can survive this recent storm without another water main break!

SH-H-H-H-H-H!!!

Frank said...

It was nice to get the bonus snow here for once. No day off from work for me though. Most schools are closed in CNJ though, and the others have delayed openings. I do feel a little bad for my brother (another weather and snow lover) in Kutztown PA though. They only got 8". But if were to live 15 miles west, that area got 15".

Mr. Foot said...

Awww gee shucks Julee, you're too nice.

I'll be sure to remember to tell them when they plead to play in the snow BEFORE doing their homework.

Imagine what these poor children will go through when they discover BOTH their parents are teachers.

It brings a tear to me eye as Scotty on Star Trek would say.

terpguy said...

My son (who is now a 16-year-sophomore) was doomed from the get-go.

BOTH of us are/were teachers.

We were very, very fortunate with him, healthwise, as we had him late in life.

He's had straight A's since the fourth grade.

rbmgweather said...

Mr. foot,
I was glad to see your forecast again. Even though I had to re-schedule basketball games with Patapsco, It was sure fun seeing all the white stuff. The family and I are flying to San Francisco this weekend. I'm hearing that there is another storm that may affect us Sun-Mon. What do you see? I really don't want to be stuck in SF. I guess I could check on Peiser's fruit cup later this week! Oh well, great call on this last storm. Make sure you take care of my good buddy Walen!!

Eric said...

16" exactly on my back deck in Woburn...already compacted to 12" this morning.

Some schools are open, others closed.

Boston received 17.8", making it the 11th biggest snowstorm in history.

Any other guarentees like you made predicting a snowstorm in the Feb 10-20 timeframe?

Congrats NYC on your 27"!

linda said...

Glad to see Eric back, and I wondered about Uncle Rico too! Eric I thought mabe you lost power, because you hadn't been on all day. Fron the coverage on the news, it looked pretty wicked up there.Back to normal for everyone tomorrow.

kristine said...

Is there any chance of a delayed opening tomorrow?

shenry said...

I am thinking a delay for sure. The nw and north part of balto co. got there butt kicked. 20" in owings mills and 22" in Randallstown and 24" in Reisterstown. So maybe closure again. :)

Mr. Foot said...

Oh Mr. Henry i think that is wishcasting. Sure would be nice since tomorrow is an ACE day. hehehe. but seriously the G-House plants need attention and will bake to death if I ignore them
(yes I went in to water and check)

I think that people in those areas are probably going to be told (indirectly) to suck it up and deal. Would be too embarrassing for another day of closed when so many roads are clear.

Maybe maybe a 2 hour delay depending on other districts. Then again black ice might make that very possible.

kristine said...

I would think a 2 hour would be logical- then again we are talking about a county system so far be it for them to think logically...anyway- thinking logically- 2 hours would be appropriate considering the black ice issue. Hopefully a decision will be made before our kids are on buses and staff slides to work on the ice...

shenry said...

Okay, if the big brass closes us for it being too windy, then they need to concern the dangers the roads will process tomorrow morning. We are talking roads that still need to be plowed in the NW and North and the melting that occured will refreeze tonight. So, I agree if they don't give us a 2 hour delay I will official believe our leaders smoke........(this is a G site, gotta behave)

Mr. Foot said...

So what's the consensus out there tonight? Is black ice going to be that big of a problem to force a delay or is the political pressure on to reopen. You know the longer you're closed, the more antsy they get to open, safety or not that is a natural reaction of "our leaders" because it is a huge disruption for thousands of working parents and affects the local economy in many ways. So I say we're open on time because of that pressure. What say the crowd?

hoco md elkridge guy said...

Some close, some delay, some open. Depends on how they cleaned in front of the schools. Everything iced over if every single school wasn't shoveled. I think the areas with the 18+ inches probably will be off. I noticed that there was a layer of ice under some of the snow today.

terpguy said...

AA Co 2 hrs late.

Virtually 100% of Harford County kids are bussed, and other than in towns, they'll have to stand in the street.

How many sidewalks are cleared in Balto. Co., where about 1/2 of the kids walk??

kristine said...

Anne Arundel is already on a 2 hour delay along with private schools in AA County...they have a majority of power outages though... it is a toss up- but I am goin with a delay...
I dont have to grade myself on the prediction- do I???

Chip said...

Well, Annie County schools are calling a delay already, as well as some private schools. I agree that the Great White North here in Balmer County probably has some tricky areas still, but I think I lean toward Mr. Foot's view that the pressure is on to get the kiddies back in school. "Whaddya mean a delay? The roads are fine!"

John said...

I say that I am leaning to a delay of an hour or maybe 2. The roads over here in the NW area are getting very icy, and there are no sidewalks really cleared. Lots of kids in the street and would think that the best bet would be to wait an hour or two before bringing in the students.

If we were to close, I would be totally suprised. Then there would be a lot of pressure.

Chip said...

I think 2 hour delay would be prudent. We would still get credit for the day, and the kiddies will avoid the rush hour. It would be nice to have it announced tonight though, so we can sleep in. :)

Mr. Foot said...

Okay so the final word is
Balmerco 2 hours
Balmercity open
Hartdford 2 hours or closed
Ceece 2 hours
Fred and Carol open
and... last but not least...

Ho Co OPEN 2 HOURS EARLY!
Just because they have the power and the money to do it.

Going to bed NOW so I can sleep in... to 1:50 when the littlest one will wake up looking for a bottle update.

hoco md elkridge guy said...

So what do you think really will happen in HoCo? Loved the money and power thing though.

Chip said...

Well, gang, I don't know. As I said, I think a 2 hour delay for BCPS would be the prudent thing, I am afraid that they might not do it. I will go to bed, and set the alarm, of course, and jump into the shower as usual, but not til I check the internet. Of course, I get up so early that they havent usually called it yet... oh well, I guess I will have to work all this out in therapy... :)

Mr. Foot said...

Well total bust on those calls... guess the pressure to open was greater than the need for safety. I sure hope those sidewalks and bus stops are clear.

Hey at least it is the first of 2 four day weeks.

Mr. Foot said...

hey I meant total bust on MY calls. That's why I like sticking to forecasting and not school closing decisions.

terpguy said...

I'll let you know what happens at my school.

We have about 12 more teachers than we have parking places.

We have been utilizing a wide sidewalk/grassy area that I'm sure won't be plowed!

Later

Mr. Foot said...

Rumblings in the distance over the weekend event and a much larger possibility for Feb 22.

Can you say, Kahuna 2?

Filmateleven

linda said...

Wow,I'm excited.

E.H. Boston said...

Hey, gang...

Reading some local bloggers...the meteorologist for NECN is calling for a possible major east coast storm this Tuesday...idk if that is the 22nd.

He is saying esemble numbers aren't matching up and there will be an omega block setting up and there has been a northward trend in the storm.

He said that the northern Mid Atlantic states, YOU GUYS, could very likely be looking at a dumping. GFS shows the storm going completely out to sea for us, but its a close call. It will be cold...lows Monday morning will be likely be -10 to +5 around here on Monday morning and highs will be in the upper 10's on Saturday and Sunday. That could set the stage for another nice one Tuesday.

ANYWAY...

The temperature on my back deck is 58.8 right now and my once 16" snowpack is now down to 5" and some spots are already totally bare.

Praying for the KAHUNA...

Nice to have this discussion back.

E.H. Boston said...

Hey I guess its back to EH Boston...

E.H. Boston said...

Call me Eric though...lol.

Its better than "eh"

kristine said...

Dont be teasing us with the hopes of another snow storm that would actually hit on a weekday...please give us more details when you get them..

Eric said...

Hey guys...I posted some of my Blizzard of 06 pictures on the web..

check out

www.wxsne.blogspot.com

The shoveling was finished so the snowbanks are a little high.

More snow on the way? Mr. Foot.

linda said...

My local weather says it going to be mid thirties on monday and tuesday,although I would rather see it be cold and very snowy. Eric, your pictures were great.There is nothing quite as pretty as pictures of big snows, thanks for sharing. Here in Bucks county hoping for one more snowfall.Mr. Foot, work your miracles!!!

Julee said...

Mr. Foot

As much as I love you ... and snow (with snow having the edge), I have expensive tickets to see Dame Edna in D.C. on Feb 25th, Possum.

Could you back up that Armageddon-like storm a few days, like maybe to the 21st??
What is the "certainty" of this late-in-the-week storm?

Could all of this be a wash due to vacillating conditions?

bw said...

Well, I am going to prepare for my observation on the 22nd as planned because like the scouts, I must always be prepared. However, the irresponsible child in me is saying Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it snow.

kristine said...

OK...channel 11 is saying snow Monday night into Tuesday...is it comin then or on Wednesday? I prefer it to come Wednesday- sorry Julee- only so we dont have to reschedule our last game of the season...Please let us know what your thoughts are on the arrival of the big kahuna #2

Eddie said...

Hey Mr. Foot,

Are we finally looking at some frozen precip down in the NC this weekend? I am hearing more and more about snow/ice for us late this weekend. Is this a possibility or just false hope once again. Thanks.

Eddie
Chapel Hill, NC

Eric said...

A wicked warm day up here in Boston, especially in Woburn.

Boston had its first "sea breeze" of the year today and only made it up to 51.

Today at around 2 PM, the bank down the street from me registered 66 degrees. However my home thermometer only made it to 62. Needless to say, it was WARM.

It felt like late April.

60's in the middle of February...whoa...low to mid 60's in New England. Needless to say, most of the snow has melted away 5 days after the storm; only the snowbanks remain.

Spring has sprung?

Nooooooooo, wait tomorrow night will be about 10-15 in Boston and in the 0's here.

Snowstorm possibility early next week?

What I am seeing, there is going to be a very flat flow, so no snowstorm up here, but I would say there is the possibility of some light to moderate snowfall in the mountains of TN, NC and southern Virginia. The snow may make it up to DC, but it would be very light and only flurries in the Baltimore metro area.

Our KAHUNA may come later in the week towards Thursday...possible major Big Kahuna, maybe Ultra Kahuna, terms we used last winter, for the I-95 cities...I will leave the rest of the explanation to Mr. Foot. Still a week away but the alert may need to be raised for the possiblity of a good storm system around here. Best chance of snows at this point look to be the inland areas of the Mid Atlantic with the major cities of DC, Baltimore, and Philly right on the edge.

We shall see.

Mr. Foot, I leave the rest to you.

Mr. Foot said...

Thanks for the analysis Eric (the forecaster formerly known as EH)

BK or UK #2 remains a strong possibility for late next week, and inside my Feb 20-25 time frame for the next storm.

Julee, go ahead with your tickets, just take a snowblower with you, or a well-stocked emergency kit..blankets, swedish fish, the usual supplies.

For Eddie in NC...be prepared for a prolonged ice/snow event that may not be heavy, just constant for 3 days straight. Cold air damming down east side of Appalachians is going to virtually guarantee you some frozen precip out of this next system. More on this later.

Frank said...

I'm loooking forward to the update. Seems like I hear a few hints about storms for next week, but then the extended forecasts don't sync up with what they say. I even saw a few that had 50 by the end of next week. All my 19-20" is gone now. Even the snow banks are barely there.

NeedaSnowday said...

I missed it.. I missed it again!! Was in Florida for the snow last week.. and when we got that 52 inch monster! Mr. Foot, I needasnowday... any luck for this upcoming week!?

OT.. I am glad to see this back up and runnin!

Eric said...

Frigid day up here in Boston. Low 20's right now, dropping to around 10 tonight. Few snow showers moved through this morning, but nothing major. Nothing where I live.

Cold will persist into the early part of this school vacation week up here in Boston, mainly 20's tomorrow and then slowly moderating through the 30's Monday and Tuesday and then perhaps back into the low 40's by Wednesday and Thursday. Oughhh.

Possible Mixed Bag out of the next one for us later this upcoming week.

A week ago, we were under a blizzard watch/warning, this week, the ground is bare again...

Mr.B said...

Wow 17 bone chilling degrees here in greencastle. BRRR. Wind chill at 7. Low expected tonight 0 degrees. Need some extra sheets tonight. Looking forward to some snow.

Eric said...

Wait a minute...

Now all indications are that this possible storm for later this week is most likely going to go well out to sea and miss most of us. Would be a toss up if it would be rain or snow even all the way up here.

Is winter over?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

As far as snow goes or major snow events I think we are done with winter. But we still may have a few shots of winter cold left after next week. Just don't think it will get snowy anymore this season. Shame our 19 inches of snow was decimated in 5 days!

Eric said...

Andy, you were right though, you got your major Northeast/Mid Atlantic Blizzard this year with a widespread 1-2'+ in many eastern US cities.

I think it is a little premature to write off winter just yet.

I am seeing SNOW in your forecast for later Thursday of this week with a storm pushing south of your region.

I am predicting a widespread 1-3" of the white stuff from just south of Philadelphia, including York, Baltimore metro and DC; as well as much of the northern half of Virginia. Some of the mountains of western VA and NC, could see even more of around 4".

Enjoy your snowfall...we'll be waiting for ours up here in Boston.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Eric,

The Big storm did come but a little later than I thought. Heck, we were long overdue for something. Too bad all we have left is a few large piles of snow.

I think you are correct though. There is a lot of cold air out there and the models have been all over the place. For me to jump on a few model runs was way too premature. The rest of this month and at least the first half of March may be very interesting as there are some hints of a negative NAO. First the NWS had our temps moderating more than we would like to see, but now they have backed off.

Hopefully we all get a few more bangs (Maybe Big) out of this winter after a very HOT January! Pattern does look like it could get a little interesting.

Eric said...

Yes, it could get interesting...hoping at least you guys get some light snow later this week...as it looks to be a mainly dry and coolish week ahead.

After Friday, more arctic air may move back into the area, leaving the door open for some coastal development...the water temps off the coast are very unusually high for this time of year. Boston Harbor is still 40-41 degrees. Usually at this time of the year, it is around 35.

Storms like warm water...we'll see.

I'm going out on a limb out here, but I am betting that all of us will see at least 2-3 more significant snowstorms of 6"+ before this winter is over.

kristine said...

Will we get any snow this week? I saw flurries on Wed.- are they just down playing it or is there more to it than just flurries???

Eric said...

Looks like your Mid Atlanitic midweek snow is pretty much been diminished to a brief period of light snow from DC to Philly with flurries north of Philly and the snow will likely change to rain showers during the morning and the key word is LIGHT. All precip will be extremely light. I would bet that most areas will get a dusting/coating and a few scattered areas may wind up with a slushy inch.

Sorry...Arctic air invades Sunday though.

Drew said...

:-) from Joe B. colum today at accuweather.com >>
(http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/promotional_redesign_blog.asp)

This looks like another GFS fiasco in the making, this time with its lack of ability in the northern branch. The trof coming through Thursday and Friday is gaining more and more importance as it comes under the block and the air mass coming in is getting colder and colder from Michigan the mid atlantic, and that is to be expected given the backing block. The mistake may be very similar for this weekend to the error we saw last January ( 2005) when the model kept trying to push to much low pressure and height fall feedback out in front of what will be the main max that digs in 24-36 hours later. This results in a much weaker surface low in the cold air through the lakes and a wave underneath that cruise through the Ohio valley, then bombs out as the height falls dig in Sunday to the mid atlantic coast. That is my worry now, and it will be interesting to see if that turns out to be the case. I remind the readers in the northeast and lakes, the area of main concern, that the overwhelming model bias of big snowstorms is to NOT SEE THEM 3-5 DAYS IN ADVANCE. We just saw that happen for instance a couple of weeks ago, we saw it last year, we saw in 2003, etc etc etc. Now that does not mean it has to happen here, but it is something that should raise an eyebrow or two given the extremes this pattern has proved itself capable of.

Eric said...

WOW!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Hopefully some of the possible threats will come together soon. There are just really 3 weeks left as far as winter is concerned. Snow events and major ones at that are possible after the 15th of March but very rare. Let's pray that this negative NAO pattern that is converging upon us can deliever a punch as it goes neutral. An interesting next 3 weeks to watch. At least it looks much more promising than January did!

Julee said...

I don't know who you are Drew dear -- but I like the cut of your meteorological jib! QUITE an interesting wintery scenario! Thanks for the upbeat update.
Do you think the chances of this panning out are more than 50%

p.s. what have you done with Mr. Foot?

linda said...

Where is everybody?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Things are looking to get pretty cold, but no real indications of stormy weather. Anyone see something I'm missing?

Drew said...

from Joe Bastardi's accuweather column today 2/24... there still is hope!

So what to look for the next couple of weeks: Alot of cold centered in the northeast and lakes overall and in the Pac northwest, though its wet chill, not not arctic cold. Alot of rain in California. A pattern that is hugely variable in the southern plains in the Carolinas, and depending on the speed and amplification of waves, capable of me looking even more the fool than usual ( self deprecating, but in this winter, okay, true in a lot of cases) and the THREAT OF A MAJOR, WILD STORM ON THE EAST COAST.

Look, that is not hype. Its history. It doesnt mean it has to happen, but if we simply look at what has happened at this time of the year with this kind of pattern, then one has to say, well if it doesnt it underachieved. I realize unless it shows up on a model some folks cant see it, but if we simply look at history, we can see the way it happens.

Eric said...

And if that doesn't work...move up to Boston as a good 2-4"+ is in the forecast for tomorrow and if we end up getting some enhancement from the good old Atlantic Ocean, eastern MA will see a widespread 4-6" event.

Mr. Foot, how much snow do you see for our area. Right now NWS is about to issue a SNOW ADVISORY north of the Pike (I-90) later on this afternoon.

And Spring Training is well under way...Manny being Manny has started all over again. Gotta love it.

Just think in a short month and a half...the Sox and O's and Yanks and Jays...and lonely Rays will be back into the swing of it...

Summertime.

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I think our winter is coming to a close. JB's column gives a little hope but we really only have 2 weeks left in our region. Least we had one nice snow this year, but overall a pretty tame and pathetic winter once again. MAYBE, we'll go out with a bang so let's keep our eyes to the models maybe something will materialize and soon!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

I'm no longer impressed with this pattern. I think another week of cool temps and we can close the book on winter for the mid atlantic and points south. WINTER as far as snow is concerned is over!

Julee said...

ANDY!

Don't go breakin' my heart!

In a desperate attempt to find SOME kind of winter weather that might still be available, I saw a mix of snow and ice predicted at Accuweather for Monday, March 6th. Sure it's a long time away, but the sight of those little snowflake graphics lifted my spirits.

I can dream, can't I?
Dream with me Andy!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Julee,

You might be right, I may be crazy, but it just may be a lunatic you're look'in for.

Alright then. That was just my take on things in my previous post, and you are right, yes it can snow. The blocking pattern has a tendency to throw models off, so I won't go model huging anytime soon (besides if I did my wife would make me sleep on the deck!!!)

BUT ANDY'S FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED STILL STANDS. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again but my money is on no snow. HOWEVER, I'll take whatever snow the clouds throw my way.

Mr.B said...

I agree andy. The past two winters have been just horrible.Also the snow pretty much looks over with. Well time to bring in the severe thunderstorms and hurricanes. Has anyone looked at the farmers almanac? Looks like they are predicting the end of the east coast. With 20 or more severe thunderstorms and two hurricanes striking the mid-atlantic. Welp another cold one coming up tomorrow. High 28 with wind chills 0-2 degrees. But of course no snow.

Julee said...

Crazy? You're crazy for tryin' and crazy for cryin' but NOT crazy for wantin' . . . snow.ju;l

AIYEEEE! I go to D.C. to see Dame Edna for a few hours and Accuweather has completely removed ALL mention of ice and/or snow for the 6th. Snow has been moved up to March 11th (Saturday). That figures.
Although now I'm thinking that this far out, they must just pull weather stuff out of a brown paper bag while waiting to put up a REAL forecast.

p.s. what was the name of that guy who started this page?

Mr. Foot said...

Alright fine you got me backed in a corner.

I predict the last storm of the season (for MidAtlantic) to occur between March 5 and 10, and I will do an update before weekend is out to reflect this. After that storm, our winter will be over.

Depending of course on outcome of IAEA meeting and subsequent referral of Iran to Security Council, not to mention the Oil Bourse and our old friend, Bird Flu.

What a spring it will be, if we make it that far.

Just trying to put a positive spin on it all.

Eric said...

TOTAL BUST IN BOSTON

Forecasts were calling for 4-6" this morning and we ended up with about a coating to 2" of snow throughout my area. SW NH got up to 5-8", but that was the exception, not the rule.

What do you think of our potential Thursday March 2nd storm up here in Boston, Mr. Foot?

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Dame Edna is hot! Hotter than our January. Makes the snow turn to rain and me blush like the school boy I am not! I'm gett'in ready to plant flowers, snow blower is being sold at auction for 3 cents. Think the March storm will be rain for us, least it will have the NWS lift that annoying fire warning advisory. I have bridges to burn and wouldn't want to be fined for doing it. Least with the 3 cent snow blower profit, I can make a down payment on that fine.