Monday, March 6, 2006

ALLRIGHT FINE, YOU WIN, IT'S OVER
sort of...


It is obvious to anyone following the weather that the chances of any more significant accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic this winter will have come and gone by the time you read this. I am not letting New England out the woods yet for another 6 weeks, as there have been many a storm in late March and even early April which have blanketed our friends in the North with 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow even into late April (for example, 4-23-86, remember that one?)


I say "sort of" because while I agree with everyone that an active southern jet and increasing sun angle will rule the day more often than not from here on out...there have been a few unusual years, like March 1958, when bizarre late season storms have dumped heavy snow in confined areas. I doubt something like that storm will occur, but I still see the possibility of a few flakes from time to time in the next several weeks, other than the flake writing this. The false warmup late this week will only make more painful the likely snap back to cold that is sure to follow it, resulting in the first day of Spring not feeling anything like it.


As for storm prediction, this post will close the book for now on the 05-06 winter, which I warned as early as last summer would be disappointing, with most of the snow coming in one or two big storms. I know I wrote that somewhere in a post way back when. From this point forward, the focus on this site will shift to the upcoming hurricane season, and the (let's hope not) the upcoming threat of avian influenza, which will be landing in a backyard near you this spring and summer.

48 comments:

Eric said...

Cool sea breezes here in Boston as the past few afternoons have stayed in the 30's, but a huge warmup is on the way and highs on Friday could reach 65!

50's and 60's could linger all the way until Wednesday!

Is winter over even in SOUTHERN New England.

Eric said...

HELLO, anybody out there.

Have any of you been watching the forecast for St. Patty's Day?

Well, if you haven't, there is rumblings on the GFS and European of an I-95 Special Late Winter Edition for the east coast on Friday...

Looks like this has the potential to bring accumulating snow from DC to Boston and perhaps even further northward. Coastal storms are very finicky, but this has the potential to be a fairly decent snowstorm for some. Just letting you all know, just in case you have already put away the winter clothes and broke out the flip flops and shorts after yesterdays upper 70's and low 80's!

I was about to do that to as temperatures were at 70 for a while yesterday afternoon. Now its looking like a negative cold stormy rest of March. Hope the spring-a-lings got their spring in now and will have to wait until April.

AGAIN...

POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM FRIDAY FOR THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST!

Mr. Foot, take it from here. Help us out.

Eric said...

Meant to say negative NAO...which means colder weather in store.

Eric said...

Where did everybody go???

Big NOR'EASTER in the works...anybody out there?

I know it feels like winter is over, but its not. HELLO

Anonymous said...

Eric... sure do hope your right. I would love to get in a few more ski days!!! Bring on a late season dumping!!!

Eric said...

Yes, reading the Boston forecast discussion, it looks good for most of us to get a high QPF event from this.

Right now looking at the GFS, it is not really showing a high QPF at all, but it was yesterday morning. However, the NWS forecast discussion said, and I agree, that at this time...Friday, the NAO will be going from POS to NEG. This would favor a colder solution for the east coast and a high QPF event for most of us on the east coast. Now, the computer models are still pretty much all over the place with this one, but all do have a storm coming out of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area and redeveloping a secondary low off the Mid Atlantic coast. Now, the question is...how powerful will it be and what will its eventual storm track be?

All these questions will be ironed out through the next few days, but I am strongly confident that somebody from DC to Boston will get a fairly decent snow event. Hopefully, its the infamous I-95 Special that we thought would never in a million years happen after the summer like week we have been having. 70's and 80's Friday the 10th...Snow and wind and cold the 17th. It could happen.

Mr. Foot, we all need your expertise.

Julee said...

The ground temperature is ... like ... one thousand degrees. Can the snow REALLY accumulate after all of this hideously warm weather??????

Anonymous said...

RAY - Eric, that argument about the transitioning NAO is true, but it does not ALWAYS evolve into a big storm for the E coast. I used the same argument in favor of the no show biggie around Tuesday of last week and got burned and that featured a much sharper NAO transition!

Eric said...

You are right Ray.

All the models are now having this thing underdeveloped and progressive to the east with only some rain/snow mix for NYC and northern NJ.

Winter is now officially OVER.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Not so fast Eric, 2 very close calls on the 12z GFS w very heavy qpf events around days 13 and 16 in what will be a -NAO regime the rest of the month. We can still have blizzards here in E MASS into April, as the biggest snow event that Ive ever seen took place on April 1st,1997! Remember that one! Realistically Id say we have the rest of March w the NAO fore cast to go positive the first week of April thus probably signaling an end to the snowfall season here in S New England. Those of u in the M Atlantic will probably have to wait until next year at this point.

Anonymous said...

RAY- The following excrept from the CPC verifies my previous post. Enjoy! For Tuesday March 21 - Friday March 24: Although forecasts this far ahead are highly uncertain, most recent runs of the GFS model suggest that a new trough will deepen as it comes inland over the western U.S. Available models diverge considerably after that, but there are some hints that a major spring snowstorm could affect some part of the Northeast towards the end of this period. Depending on where significant precipitation falls from the storms within the whole Assessment period, many of the areas of long-term drought, especially those in the eastern parts of the Plains and the Mississippi Valley, should experience at least temporary relief. With the westerlies predicted to be primarily across the central part of the CONUS, warm air is not expected to penetrate very far to the north exept over the Plains. Since strong blocking is predicted to return to the Davis Strait area, relatively cold air should remain in place over the northeastern U.S. and any significant warming should be limited to the southern part of the country.

Anonymous said...

Where u at S. New England? Latest 18z GFS continues to hint (hinting is all a forecast this far out is good for) at a huge QPF event for M Atlantic and Southern/Central New England. My guess is that New England would be the only place cold enough for all snow, to the coast?? This would make sense cause the NAO would be preparing to transition from - to + and as Eric and I discussed above, a transitioning NAO is a favorable regime for MAJOR E coast cyclogenesis. In conclusion, winter possibly out w a bang and March like a lion, possibly a lion on steroids!...Stay tuned!

Julee said...

Anonymous --

Don't semi-promise anything you can't totally deliver! We Mid-Atlantic Snow Freaks are viscious!

But thanks for something to HOPE for!

Eric -- want to move to Pittsburgh with me? My sister says THEY're getting SNOW tomorrow!

Anonymous said...

RAY- Julie, first of all the name is Ray (blogger account sign up is not working), 2nd, I did not "semi-promise" anything! Do these excrepted statements from my posts sound like promises?: "Although forecasts this far ahead are highly uncertain", "hinting is all a forecast this far out is good for" and "Those of u in the M Atlantic will probably have to wait until next year at this point". Make sure u read the entire post before you criticize me! I'm telling people in New England to take this w a mound, not just a grain of salt and I,m telling u "vicious Mid-Atlantic freaks" that ur snow season is probably over. No offense intended, but its all I'm doing is giving heads up for the last week of March. If u don't realize that an outlook for 2 weeks in the future is not a promise than u can't be very weather savy! Peace.

Julee said...

EEEEEEEEYIKES! I was only teasing you (and mispelling "vicious").
Yikes.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Sorry Julie, got a little defensive, I take my weather very seriously. I really didn't mean to offend u: ) Lets hope for a biggie!

Drew said...

St.Patrick's Day snow still looks good for east coast PA, NJ, NY. Looks like a 2 week trough locks in the east bringing below norm temps. NAO neg. Models still show a slow moving system riding up the coast mid/late next week. Could that be the last big one? Or are we done?

Anonymous said...

RAY- U pretty much echo my former posts, way to stay on top of things; noone is going to get much out of the ST.Patty's Day event becasue the shortwave is fractured at 500mb, which creates a weak warm advection field

Anonymous said...

RAY- Hope remains snow freaks. The following discussion was written by meteorologist Matt Noyes of New England Cable News in his blog on MattNoyes.Net: The combination of our trough, the building cold ridge to our west, and strong, moisture-loaded Pacific energy coming into the South-Central US late in the weekend, all helps to set the stage for the storm centered around the 21st that you and I have been watching together in these discussions for a very long time! Remember that this thinking was laid out initially not because of any particular guidance product predicting a storm, but instead based upon the overall jetstream configuration for that time period, and the likelihood that each factor would come very close to converging for cyclogenesis. Those of you who read regularly know we've seen these signs before but no storm has resulted, and though that's always a possibility as it is in this instance, the goal of reading the signals and making the best forecast we possibly can is what we've been engaged in. That challenge will continue in the coming days, though at this point I still think the factors are there for healthy storm development with a shield of snow on its northern periphery. Here is the latest discussion from the CPC:
For Monday March 20 - Friday March 24: There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast of the storm in the middle of the country as it moves east. Due to this uncertainty, no hazards can be forecast at this time. There is, however, a good chance that heavy precipitation will make its way to the East Coast sometime during this period. An active period is expected as multiple shortwaves move into the Southwest before moving to the east.

Eric said...

Hey, Ray...I didn't know you were from the Boston area. Thats great. You've got to love New England Weathah!

I was new to this site last year and try to be nice to the natives, as last year I would get a little defensive now and again as many of them would tell you when a forecast did not verify. Live and learn.

Anyway, no snow for us on Friday, but I would bet that NYC and Philly could see some snowflakes in the air, but I just don't see an accumulation. Come on guys, yesterday was in the 80's! Ground temperatures are just too warm for you all. Milwaukie, Detroit, and Cleveland may get the lion's share of the snow from this storm, as 3-5" with isolated 6" amounts are possible. Maybe an inch or two in Pittsburgh, Julee.

NAO still looks on target to be negative, and looking at Ray and Matt Noyes' prediction for a storm, was looking at the MRF on the UNISYS, there is a storm along about the 23rd-24th. Still way too far out for me to grab. This past Saturday morning, it looked like Friday's storm was going to be a monster. Still just too early. Still believe we will get another snowstorm this season, but when? Your guess is as good as mine.

Ray...can you believe that David Givens signed with the TITANS!!!

And a snowstorm next week in Boston would be bad timing as that is when the tryouts for baseball start for high schools throughout the state. Ehh, I'll take it though.

"To one more snowstorm.."

Eric said...

Ray, you are not the Ray from Toddgross.com are you?

Anonymous said...

RAY- Yea I am, u actually stole my thunder cause my next post was going to be to urge any visitors of this page that take an interest in S. New England weather (I know this site is primarily for the M Atlantic) to check out ToddGross.com, the home of the best meteorologist in Boston!!! I expected Givens to leave Eric, he made the right personal choice cause at age 25 he doesn't have a lot of money yet (by pro athlete standards) and he wouldn't have got that kind of a contract from the Pats. Go Red Sox!!! : )

Anonymous said...

RAY- BTW Eric, I doubt ANYONE sees 6" from the ST. Patty's Day system, too fractured aloft, meteorological language for this storm S***S!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

It's still Spring in my book. But I'll keep an eye to the sky just in case!

Anonymous said...

RAY- It WILL be cold the rest of the month Andy, just a matter of whether there is any significant snow to be had. Eric, r u a member of the ToddGross Support Group yet? If not u should join. The party on Sunday was a great time!

Anonymous said...

RAY- Hi all, one last note to keep u entertained during this boring weather b4 I go to bed, this is the 118th anniversary of the Great
Blizzard of 1888!
Interesting to note that the Blizzard of '88, which buried W New
England under 4-5FT of snow, was a member of an elite, but small
group of the rarest storms that indicate an unusual developement of a
rather innocuous SE coastal low pressure system interacting with a
major outbreak of record arctic air combining to become a huge and
historic storm system of the deepest (most powerful) kind (Kocin,
Uccellini 2005). These type of systems have an N-S oriented arctic
front running out to the north of the low center, separating a
vicious, recordsetting blizzard along and W of the front (SHARP
TRANSISTION ZONE) from a balmy mix of rain and wet snow to the E of
the front.

Instances of these most extreme E coast storms from the post above,
in addition to the Great Blizzard of 1888 include: 3-2-15 952mb 30"
in NW NJ, blinding snow driven by 84mph winds in NYC!! 3-7-32 960mb,
but mainly rain in urban corridor. 11/25-27/50 "The Appalachian
Storm" 62" Coburn Creek,WV, 25-30" Pittsburgh,PA 984mb Low combined w
1050mb High, "Greatest combination of extreme atmospheric elements
ever seen in E US"(Kocin,Uccellini 2005) despite the paucity of snow
in the urban corridor. Hurricane force gusts over virtualy all of the
NE US!! 108mph at Concord,NH and Hartford,CON!! 12/29-31/62 964mb 46"
over cenral and eastern Maine! The Ohio valley Blizzard of 1/26-27/78
950mb!! "The worst blizzard to ever hit the great lakes region" (NWS
Pontiac MI). Snowfall upwards of 30" in Michigan accompanied by
hurricane force wind gusts all the way to the east coast! In
conclusion, over the past 118 years these extreme events have occured
only 6 times, an average of just about 1 every 20 years. Its been 28
years and counting meaning we're over due for another one of these
rare events in the E US, but when and where?? Prolly not this season! Wow have I been bored tonite! : )

Eric said...

Not any major East Coast snowstorm today, but my backyard managed to get a coating of snow this afternoon from the snow showers and squalls.

All will melt tomorrow as highs will rebound to about 40. Saw that the Mid Atlantic may see some SNOW on St. Patty's Day. Andy, there you go. Some snow to get your spirits high. Not any accumulation, maybe a coating at worst, but still snow.

SE Minnesota and southern Wisconsin could get blasted with a narrow band of over 6 inches of snow. Chicago may see up to 3". Julee..the Steel City may pick up a good 1-3" of snow as well.

For us farther north...quiet and cool weather looks to be the rule for the next week. NO SNOW IN SIGHT. Possible signs of any snowstorms have all but vanished from all the computer models and once the NAO goes back to positive later next week. Me and Ray's snow season will be all but over. What a dismal snow season here in the Boston area. Only three times did the snow plows have to be out. December 9th; 14", January 23rd; 7"; and February 12th; 16". Other than that all the snow events we got we under 2-3". Better luck next year for all you snow plow operators.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Technical Discussion for Next Week: Yea Eric, sorry to say at the moment it looks ova! 00z GFS contiues out to sea. W the exception of a couple of decent storms(HAHA I got 18" Dec 9), this winter has been dry and BORING!! The culprit is an ANNOYINGLY PERSISTENT polar vortex that has become stuck in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritmes almost everytime that we have established the snow favorable -NAO regime and in the process shunted potential snow storms south and out to the fish with its cold, dry, NW flow. It is becoming incresingly likely that that damn polar vortex will strike again; however there is an increasingly farther outside chance that the piece of the polar vortex that is forecast to be left N of the Great Lakes could retrograde far enough west to deepen the trough thus pulling the system up the coast, but it looks very much like it will stay in place JUST long enough to ruin yet another BIG snowstorm!: ( As my man Todd Gross says here in Boston... "Cold and Dry Kiss it Goodbye". The only model as of this writing that is calling for a snowstorn is the Korean model, which takes a 990mb low inside the benchmark, but much like a Yankees cap I'm NOT buyin it!

Anonymous said...

Ray- 12Z GFS has made a significant shift toward the E coast regarding the system for Wednesday of next week! It now places a 988mb L just outside of Benchmark w .5+ QPF grazing capecod! Not ready to jump on board yet cause its only one run and I still haven't had a chance to view other models, but that outside chance of a storm may have increased some.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Ahhhh! ECMWF still well out to sea and the Hpc tends to agree w it, but hopefully the GFS is on to something. Sill 6days out w plenty of room for flip flopping.

Eric said...

NO STORM WED, even with the GFS bringing it back...thats my gut feeling. NO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR IN BOSTON.

DC, PHILLY, you'll def. get some more.

Odd...

kristine said...

So what is the story for snow Thursday into Friday? Any chance of a delay Friday morning?

Anonymous said...

RAY- Doubt it highly Kristine, any midweek storminess will have cleared by then so u better study for that test : ), Eric, while I agree with u, don't give up entirley on this storm, the GFS COULD be on to something w the polar vortex retrograding far enough W to pull the system up the coast. Early look at the 00z GFS has it at least holding it's ground!

Andy, Southern York County PA said...

Just one of these seasons we'll get well above average snowfall and record cold. When that will be who knows. But the longer it stays lame, the more likely we are to see the flip side of that! Here's to 06-07.

Mr. Foot said...

Happy St. Patty's Day Everyone!

Ray: Welcome to the site and your comments have been very informative and interesting! Thank you for keeping everyone appraised of the developing final chapter in the 05-06 Winter.

The Foot Family has been beset by another round of medical problems with a grandparent in for brain surgery and dear little Kaselyn having an intestinal/respiratory problem. SO it has been a challenging time!

I did not post on this joke of a storm for Thu/Fri because I knew it was.. a joke. Overnight lows of 33 when it was 54 at 10 PM? Come on. The NWS must have been sipping a bit of spiked Irish coffee, I think this whole chance of snow bit is going to complete bust. The ground is in the 40's alone.

NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IS A DIFFERENT STORY. The atmosphere appears to be conspiring to serve up a dose of revenge...and it reminds me of the Klingon proverb: Revenge is a dish best served cold. (Remember that Trekkers from STII:TWOK ?)

I will update the site this weekend with an analysis of the Tuesday storm threat... then it will be back to bird flu reporting.

Sheesh! Dangerous living on planet earth these days!

linda said...

Mr.Foot, sorry about your trying times, I know where you are coming from, my mom has been in the hospital for three weeks,and is gravely ill, tough times, and at the end of the day my chillout time is reading your site. Happy
St.Patricks day to everyone, and it will be fun thinking that ther will be one more snow,

linda said...

PS, Hope which ever parent had surgery is okay.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Thanx greatly for the kind words Mr. Foot, I feel the same way about about Friday NONevent and the THREAT next week. I sincerley hope that all turns out well w ur family!! This site contains the best weather chats of any I've seen! Thanx for making me aware of it on ToddGross.com Eric!

Julee said...

Mr. Foot

We've missed you! So very sorry to learn of your family's unfortunate medical problems. If that is your sweet, funny daddy who had surgery, please send him my regards.

Just wanted you to know two things:
Here in Pikesville this morning as I was about to begin my 26 mile commute to the north country, it was snowing. Just a twinkly, fluffy little snow, but it made me smile. I wondered how much worse it would be in the north (as predicted). Well, there WAS no snow in the north! In fact, the sun was coming out as I arrived. So much for THAT lame prediction.
Also on my way this morning I spotted (and heard)a great honking "V" of Canada Geese, and instead of being delighted, as I usually am, I could only think ..."OH NO! Do they carry bird flu?"

Kristine - did you study for that test?

Anonymous said...

RAY- Well Mr. Foot, the only reason that I have any hope left for this Tuesday threat is that it is still 5 days away, the only positive thing that I can take away from the current set of guidance is that there is still time for it to change, but the trend has CLEARLY been in the other direction! Even the GFS is now WELL OUT TO SEA on its 12z run joining all of the other guidance. If this trend continues u can prolly just skip to ur bird flu post cause this threat is shrinking by the hour. I have a strong feeling that this snowfall season is ova, why, two words...Polar Vortex. UGHHHH!! MOVE THE HELL OUTTA THE MATITIMES WILL YA!!! It is essentialy acting as a cop on a $38/hour deatail forcing snowstorms to take a detour around the east coast. Snow freaks...we have a problem!!

Eric said...

GFS this afternoon is not looking good for snow chances Tuesday. Maybe some rain showers into the Mid Atlantic. No snow Philadelphia on north. That is my predicition and I will stick with it. NO SNOWSTORM TUESDAY!

Anonymous said...

RAY- Correction: MATITIMES above should read (Canadian) MARITMES.

Anonymous said...

RAY- Status quo Mr. Foot, don't see much of a threat regarding next week. It prolly doesn't even warrant an entire post from u! If the models r going to start to shift they had better do so soon and do it by Sunday cause I doubt that there will be much of a change inside of 48hrs. The blocking polar vortex WILL NOT budge! There is great precedance for that this season. Hurricane Season anyone? I see it being another active one bacause of the La Nina in the Pacific favoring low wind shear yet again in the Atlantic basin! We r long over due here in Boston for a major Hurricane Eric!! Much more later...my girlfriend is going to incessantly haunt me until I get off of the computer.

Anonymous said...

RAY- With winter "probably" behind us significant snowfall wise,I find it very frightening that most of contemporary New England society and to a lesser extent the M Atlantic, is dreadfully ignorant to the fact that we are BEYOND OVERDUE to say the least for a savage blow from a major hurricane!! This combined with the fact that we have been coincidentaly in the midst of a tropically hyper active multidecadal cycle since 1995 and the present Pacific La Nina (conducive to tropical activity cause of reduced Atlantic basin wind shear) could make this the year that r beefed up population pays the tropical tab accrued by the last couple generations of New Englanders! This would prolly eclipse Andrew in cost and definitley in casualties. I believe that ground zero for this impending tragedy will be Long Island because of it's geographical vulnerability and huge population. Its been about a half a century since the M Atlantic or New England has been directly impacted by a major hurricane. This season it may be time to pay the tropical piper! Ur thoughts?

Eric said...

We are long overdue. Last hurricane I can remember was Hurricane Bob in the early 90's, which was not that big of a deal here in metrowest of Boston.

Hoping that the significant snows are still out there for us. Boston averages 8" of snow for March and we've had a trace

Anonymous said...

RAY- Just goes to show ya how spoiled we really r to be living in this neck of the woods!(u wouldn't know it lately) I found myself scoffing at the NWS office discussions in Denver,CO and Nebraska mentioning "the biggest snowstorm in recent years" when reffering to an 8-15" total accumulation! : ) Just a run of the mill storm here in the NE. Really puts things into perspective cause to prompt words like that to trickle from the mouths of weather freaks around here ur talking at least 2-3 feet. I got 8.5" at my house in one hour on DEC 9 (frequent thunder and lightning)and 6/hour in Blizzy of Jan '05! Let them have their 15 of fame. HAHA!...8-15": )

Anonymous said...

RAY- FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY DISCLAIMER: 12Z Korean model is predicting a snowstorm Friday-Saturday. Something very big ensembled with remarkeable consistency for the time range by the GFS for central and northern New England the first week of April(one last hurrah for skiers?). The upshot of all this is that winter snow wise is prolly still ova.

NeedaSnowday said...

Hey Mr. Foot,

How about an early dismissal for TUESDAY!?